USA TODAY International Edition
Atlantic could experience up to 19 named storms this season
The federal government expects a busy hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with six to 10 hurricanes forming, forecasters said Thursday.
The announcement comes against the backdrop of the coronavirus, which will almost certainly impact evacuations and shelter from approaching storms.
Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 13 to 19 named storms will develop. This number includes tropical storms, which contain wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. Storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph.
Of the predicted six to 10 hurricanes, three to six could be major with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher.
“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, acting NOAA administrator.
Forecasts include storms that spin up in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the Climate Prediction Center, said there is a chance the season could be “extremely active.”
“What matters is we are are expecting another above- normal season and now is the time to prepare,” Bell said.
If predictions hold true, it will be a record fifth consecutive year of abovenormal activity. That would beat the previous four- year streak set from 1998 to 2001. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.
Tropical Storm Arthur kicked off the season a bit early this week as it grazed North Carolina with rain and wind on Monday. The next named storm will be Bertha, followed by Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay.
Speaking about the coronavirus, Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience at FEMA, said “social distancing and other CDC guidance to keep you safe from COVID- 19 may impact the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including what is in your go- kit, evacuation routes, shelters and more. With tornado season at its peak, hurricane season around the corner, and flooding, earthquakes and wildfires a risk year- round, it is time to revise and adjust your emergency plan now.”
NOAA’s forecast follows several earlier that also called for an active season. Last month, meteorologists at Colorado State University predicted 16 tropical storms will form, eight of which will become hurricanes. In the 1980s, Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts.
The Weather Channel and AccuWeather also predicted a busier than usual hurricane season. Last year, NOAA predicted nine to 15 named tropical storms would spin up, of which four to eight would be hurricanes. In all, 18 named storms formed, including six hurricanes. The worst was Dorian, which tore through the Bahamas.
Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 11 to 18 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms. Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U. S. mainland, although some storms hit the west coast of Mexico. Remnant moisture from the storms can dump heavy rain on the U. S. Southwest, leading to flooding.
“What matters is we are expecting another above- normal season.” Gary Bell
Climate Prediction Center