USA TODAY International Edition
Spring surge was bad. 32 states are now worse
COVID- 19 cases are growing 10 times faster in some areas
While many states that suffered initial COVID- 19 outbreaks experience a lull in new cases, others are adding cases 10 times faster than in their worst week in the spring.
A USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins University data shows 32 states are adding cases faster than in their worst spring week, and 20 states on Tuesday night had their worst week for cases of the disease: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Some states are having their worst week for new coronavirus deaths. Tennessee reported 102 deaths, a 76% increase from the number of deaths recorded in its worst week in the spring.
Public health experts said COVID- 19 cases are increasing at faster rates as the virus spreads to rural communities, where residents aren’t following social distancing or mask wearing guidelines, and in urban areas that see an influx of summer tourists.
Tennessee reported 4.5 times more coronavirus cases this week than in its worst week in the spring, the equivalent of a new case every 46 seconds.
“We have had for over the last month a steady and alarming increase in cases,” said William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious disease at Vanderbilt University of Tennessee. “Although our cases aren’t as high as Florida, Arizona, California … it clearly indicates that we have not controlled the virus transmission here in our state.”
Schaffner said cases initially focused in the major metropolitan areas spread to smaller towns and rural counties where leaders dictated mask and social distancing policies residents strongly opposed.
Williamson County Schools, a district in a Nashville suburb, received pushback from parents regarding reopening guidelines for on- campus learning that include a mask mandate, social distancing and adherence to health protocols. A group formed Recall Williamson on Facebook and sent a letter announcing recall efforts against school board members as a result of mask- wearing rules.
The county reported 570 cases in its most recent week, more than 3.5 times worse than its spring peak of 159 cases April 6.
“Not wearing a mask is like driving on the red. It’s not your choice, it affects other people around you,” Schaffner said. “When you have a pandemic virus running around, we have to behave in such a way that we curtail some of our individual inclinations so that the entire community benefits.”
Mask wearing in particular has been an issue in Idaho, where the state reported four times the number of cases than in its worst week in spring. The state was pinpointed as one with the most online anti- mask activity, according to an analysis conducted by Survival At Home, a preparedness website.
Steven Nemerson, the chief clinical officer of Saint Alphonsus Health System, which is based in Boise, Idaho, said the southwest region has seen cases rise from seven per 100,000 to several hundred per 100,000 in recent weeks.
The largest increase was among patients under the age of 30 testing positive for COVID- 19, Nemerson said.
“The COVID train has left the station. Idaho is well on its way to becoming another New York, California, Texas or Arizona,” Nemerson said. He noted the trend can change if more people wear masks, maintain safe distance from others and wash their hands regularly.
It’s not just small town residents driving the rise in COVID- 19 cases. Tourists who flock to urban areas for a summer retreat and refuse to follow mask guidelines contribute to the increasing rate.
Nashville’s Metro Health Department issued 48 civil warrants to businesses for failure to comply with the city’s mask mandate, bar closures and other health orders, including several popular honky- tonks on Lower Broadway.
Beach outbreaks have been detrimental to South Carolina, which reported 9.5 times more cases than in its worst week in spring and 56% more deaths.
One day before Gov. Henry McMaster announced that beaches and some retail stores could reopen, health officials told his office that the moves posed serious risks.
Those risks included the likelihood of oceanfront communities being swarmed by visitors who would ignore social distancing guidelines, as well as a “perception that loosened restrictions may lead to a false sense of security,” according to an April 19 memo obtained through a public records request by The Greenville News, part of the USA TODAY Network.
McMaster was unswayed. Cases in South Carolina’s urban areas and coastal counties have increased dramatically as people congregated there, often without wearing masks or adhering to social distancing practices.
At the point that McMaster and his staff were warned, the highest one- day total for new cases had been 266 on April 15. In the weeks since, South Carolina saw the second largest single- day increase with 2,205 new confirmed cases Monday.
“( Not having a) statewide mask ordinance has had a big impact on our state,” said Melissa Nolan, an epidemiologist at the University of South Carolina’s Arnold School of Public Health.
Counties that enacted mask ordinances have been able to keep case numbers lower while those without have seen larger spikes, she said.
At AnMed Health Medical Center in downtown Anderson, South Carolina, the number of COVID- 19 patients soared from six to 62 during a threeweek period that ended Friday, hospital CEO Bill Manson said.
“That gives you some idea about what’s happened with this after relaxation of general safeguards after Memorial Day and then the spread of COVID- 19 in the community and the impact of that on admissions,” Manson told Anderson City Council members Monday. “That is really pushing our surge capacity.”
While Tennessee, Idaho and South Carolina report at least four times the number of new cases they reported in their worst week in the spring, New York and Massachusetts are seeing low new case numbers – 7% and 10%, respectively.
“What we’re seeing now in the South, in my opinion, is the consequence of basically giving the virus more opportunity to transmit,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology and a faculty member in the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. “If you want to stop that, stop giving it the chance.”