USA TODAY International Edition
For La., 2nd wave proving far worse
Pandemic’s spread has evolved since reopening
A powerful resurgence of COVID- 19 infections in Louisiana is hitting the state harder than its first wave in spring, making it the only state in the nation to experience two devastating spikes of the virus, an analysis of Johns Hopkins University data shows.
The state leads in COVID- 19 cases per capita, continuing to outpace even Florida, Arizona and New York, where dramatic surges have occurred since the outbreak began in March.
But unlike those states, Louisiana has been among the worst impacted in the U. S. twice during the pandemic: in April when the New Orleans area led the state’s rise in COVID- 19 spread and again this summer when dozens of parishes across the state more than doubled the number of infections they experienced in April, according to the analysis by USA TODAY Network.
Louisiana’s experience with COVID- 19 offers insight into how a state that took strict shutdown measures to curtail the rapid spread of the virus early on can suffer a more expansive surge after reopening. It also reveals how the course of the pandemic in a
“The most important thing to know is that the situation remains very, very serious. There’s more COVID- 19 in Louisiana and across every community across Louisiana than in any point up to now.” Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards
state can evolve, penetrating new areas relatively untouched by the first round of infections.
Louisiana and New York have long been the top states for per capita infections, but as New York’s cases have largely plateaued in recent weeks, the virus has made a strong comeback in Louisiana.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, Louisiana has reported 116,280 total cases and 3,835 deaths from COVID- 19, according to the Louisiana Department of Health’s update Friday.
COVID- 19 spreads far and fast
Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat in a mostly Republican state, took criticism early in the pandemic for his stayat- home order that shut down the state’s economy in the spring. He has been hesitant to roll back reopening since the latest surge, instead focusing on a mask mandate and a more targeted closure order for bars.
Edwards already is signaling he likely will extend his mask and bar closure order another two weeks. And he said he hasn’t ruled out stronger measures to control the virus.
“The most important thing to know is that the situation remains very, very serious,” Edwards said in a briefing Thursday. “There’s more COVID- 19 in Louisiana and across every community across Louisiana than in any point up to now.”
Edwards is right. The spread of the virus is vast in Louisiana after the state began reopening in June, and more prevalent than it was in April’s peak, according to the USA TODAY Network analysis.
The spike in July shows just how far and how fast the virus has spread, with the greatest spikes in parishes around Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, Lafayette and Lake Charles, the analysis shows.
Sixteen of Louisiana’s 64 parishes have cumulative per capita infection rates greater than that of New York City, considered to have the nation’s worst concentration of the virus early in the pandemic. One Louisiana parish – East Carroll – has recorded more than double New York City’s infection rate, according to the analysis.
The two defined peaks of COVID- 19 place the state among the worst- affected areas of the country in April and then again in the summer, and the USA TODAY Network analysis shows the second peak is worse.
Louisiana first peaked in the week ending April 7, when it added 237.6 new cases per 100,000 residents, the thirdworst in the country behind New Jersey and New York.
In its second surge, Louisiana sprinted past the April peak. For the week ending July 27, Louisiana added 323.2 cases per 100,000 residents. The state’s per- capita July peak is behind only
Florida and Arizona, which are experiencing their first strong spikes of the pandemic.
During the first surge, Louisiana had more aggressive measures in place to prevent the spread. Edwards issued a stay- home order and kept it in place until May 15, when the state moved into Phase 1 of reopening. Even with cases being confined to certain regions, the state locked down.
The second surge began after the state relaxed restrictions. Dr. Tina Stefanski, the Acadiana regional medical director for Louisiana’s Office of Public Health, said there was not enough compliance with mask and social distancing guidelines after reopening.
“As we’ve opened up businesses and society, we’re seeing an increase of cases,” Stefanski said. “Even though the virus was clearly still circulating, many people went back to their lives as they were before. It didn’t change their behavior.”
The combined effect of two waves of infections: Louisiana now leads the nation in total cases per resident since the U. S. outbreak took off in March. Louisiana reported 2,463 cases per 100,000 people, followed by Arizona with a rate of 2,347, Florida with 2,148 and New York at 2,130.
The New Orleans area has seen significant decreases in daily new cases since its peak during the first surge. Orleans Parish, for example, recorded 797 cases per 100,000 during the week of April 7. Its peak during the summer surge, during the week of July 16, brought only 181 cases per 100,000 – a decrease of 77%.
The same was true for the other parishes that had high case numbers during the first wave.
Many of the areas hit heavily by COVID- 19 in April implemented mask mandates earlier. New Orleans issued a mandate June 24. Jefferson Parish and East Baton Rouge Parish started mandating masks July 1.
But the parishes that were largely spared during the first wave are now recording more cases than they did in April. Calcasieu Parish – which includes one of Louisiana’s most populous cities, Lake Charles – had a modest peak of new cases during the spring. Its peak in the summer surge, last week, was more than 900% higher, at 1,245.
Second surge not as deadly, yet
Louisiana has seen signs in recent days that the state could be approaching a plateau as the number of new cases added each day has started to decline. But even with numbers of new cases falling, the state still had thousands of new cases last week, putting pressure on hospital systems.
“We hope that we’re seeing the beginnings of a trend toward a plateau in cases, although it’s at a very high level of cases,” Edwards said.
During the summer surge, the death rate has not reached the peak that Louisiana hit in the spring. For the week of April 18, the state averaged 9.9 deaths per 100,000 residents compared to 5.4 per 100,000 for the week of July 30.
Edwards said that while the state may be seeing evidence of cases leveling off, it may take a while for deaths to plateau. On Wednesday, the state recorded 69 new deaths, the highest daily count in more than two months.
“We know that deaths are a lagging indicator of what’s going on because the first thing you’re going to see is people contracting the illness, then they’re going to go into the hospital and so forth,” Edwards said. “It could be some time before this shows up in fewer deaths.”
Stefanski said she’s hopeful the mask mandate will lead to a decrease in infection levels, but it will take time to see the effects of the requirement. While more people are wearing masks, she said she’s concerned about large crowds that continue to gather.
“I’m really concerned that we’re not going to drive down the level of infection in the community to the point that we really need it to be in order to open schools safely or helping nursing homes get back to some level of visitation,” she said. “There are implications to people’s behavior socially.”
Hospitals in central Louisiana, which has seen some of the greatest increases in infections, issued a plea to wear masks and social distance.
“We strongly believe the people of this community can help make this happen,” the letter said. “But to successfully do that, we need everyone to take all needed steps to limit their risk of exposure and help protect those around them.
On Wednesday, Our Lady of Lourdes Regional Medical Center posted a memo on Facebook by Chief Medical Officer Dr. Henry Kaufman, which said the rate of increasing cases “will deplete the medical resources of our community.”
The community’s “resistance to common sense measures” was to blame for difficulties in combating COVID- 19, he said. Lafayette and other parishes had no mask mandate until Edwards implemented a state mandate July 13.
“Where other places have allowed science and reason to guide their actions, the curve has been flattened and the disease has been suppressed to the point where routine personal and commercial activities have resumed,” Kaufman wrote. “Here in our community, there has been much resistance to common sense measures and we are reaping the rewards of our obstinance.”