USA TODAY International Edition
High stakes to refocus narrative
WASHINGTON – Now it’s Donald Trump’s turn.
Relegated to spectator status last week as Democrats put on the first- ofits- kind virtual convention, the president has signaled a desire for an upbeat – and mostly live – four- day performance befitting a former reality TV star with a flair for the dramatic.
Down in battleground polls amid a devastating pandemic and a weak economy, the Republican National Convention gives Trump a nick- oftime opportunity to reset his campaign, define how he would use a second term and land a consistent line of attack against Democratic nominee Joe Biden as many voters are just beginning to tune in.
Republicans have the advantage of going last, adjusting to elements of the
Democratic effort that were successful or fell flat. They’ll also make use of an impressive backdrop: the White House, where Trump will formally accept the GOP nod Thursday.
Working against them are a series of abrupt changes to accommodate the coronavirus pandemic – including the cancellation of two planned host cities.
“Democrats had a very clear message coming out of it ... about Joe Biden’s personal characteristics – decency, empathy, compassion,” said Matt Gorman, a GOP strategist who worked for the Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney presidential campaigns. “Trump needs to focus and really make sure he finds an effective message to disqualify Joe Biden.”
Republicans have said less about their plans than Democrats had at this point, declining to provide schedules
or details on how they would balance Trump’s ability to feed off the energy of a live crowd against social distancing demands that have suspended such gatherings.
Over four days, Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, avoided meeting voters directly until they stepped onto an outdoor stage Thursday at a tailgate party in Delaware. Speeches were delivered to dark rooms; conversations looked like better- thanaverage Zoom meetings, and applause was delivered virtually if at all.
Republican insiders said a successful convention will require shifting the narrative of the election from a referendum on Trump to a choice between Trump and Biden. Others said Trump must offer a coherent explanation for a second term and build his base beyond the ardent supporters who have been with him from the beginning.
But aides close to Trump signaled another goal: a convention that’s less of a downer. Whether Republicans can square an upbeat mood with a nation that remains largely stuck at home and an unemployment rate over 10% remains to be seen.
“We definitely want to improve the mood – the dour, sour mood from this week of the DNC,” White House adviser Kellyanne Conway said Friday, adding that Trump would be involved in the convention every night.
“Lot of excitement.”
Referendum vs. choice
Republicans saw two themes in the Democratic convention: a push to define Biden as empathetic and a series of attacks on Trump’s character and management of the pandemic.
That latter messaging, analysts say, is about making the election a referendum on the incumbent, a shrewd approach given Trump’s deficit in several battleground polls and national frustration with the pandemic. Fifty- three percent of Americans believe Biden would do a better job handling the coronavirus compared with 37% who feel that way about Trump, according to a PBS NewsHour/ NPR/ Marist poll this month.
The challenge for Republicans is to make the election a choice between Trump and Biden, a subtle shift that lets the GOP open new lines of attack on the lack of specificity in some of Biden’s policy prescriptions and to weigh him down with the more controversial aspects of the Obama administration. It also lets Trump hit Biden on the possibility of higher taxes, more lax immigration policies and tighter regulation.
“Obviously Biden wants a referendum on Trump and his character, never you mind the policy implications of changing to the Democrats,” said GOP strategist Scott Jennings, a former White House aide under President George W. Bush. “Trump needs a choice.”
It has become a mantra for those close to Trump. During remarks Friday, Conway said the convention would be “part contrast so that people know this is a choice election.” Vice President Mike Pence argued on CNN the same day that “the choice in this election has never been clearer.”
It’s a bipartisan political strategy, embraced by President George W. Bush in 2004 and President Barack Obama in 2012. The question is whether Trump can pull it off.
“He may not be psychologically capable of it,” said Ramesh Ponnuru of the right- leaning think tank American Enterprise Institute. “Any attempt to follow that strategy of making it a choice election is constantly going to run against his need to be the focus.”
Trump is a relentless salesman of his own accomplishments, consistently noting the nation’s strong economy before the coronavirus, the bipartisan criminal justice reform bill he signed into law in 2018, a tax cut early in his administration and, more recently, a rare diplomatic agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
But he has been less clear about his plans for a second term.
Asked to describe his second- term agenda during an interview on Fox News in June, Trump recalled his inauguration parade and then promptly shifted to describing his former national security adviser, John Bolton, as an “idiot.” Since then, he has offered vague assurances about a trade deal with China, a nuclear agreement with Iran and a plan to replace the 2009 Obamacare law – all promises he also made in 2016.
“Trump has whiffed a couple of times on what his second- term agenda would be, so there should be a clear delineation of that in the minds of voters,” Jennings said.
Trump will get a second chance to answer the question this week with far more Americans paying attention.
Most of that answer will have to focus on how Trump plans to nudge the country out of the pandemic and get Americans back to work, Republican observers said. That would have the added benefit for some voters of presenting something besides the drama and divisiveness that has consumed Washington for much of the past four years.
“There’s not much you can do about the pandemic at a convention, but he can deliver messages that get voters to look beyond his personality and look at the policies they actually like,” said Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and former aide to Sen. Marco Rubio, R- Fla. “It could be a very beneficial contrast.”
Capturing the center of attention has long been part of Trump’s style, but it may not be the best approach for a political convention, GOP analysts said.
During the Democratic convention, Biden and Harris both teased their acceptance speeches by appearing briefly in the first few days, offering short remarks and then letting the focus shift to others to make a case on behalf of the candidates.
That tactic creates a sense that a candidate’s support is broad- based, and it helps the campaign resonate with different constituencies. Several Republicans warned that if Trump tries to dominate the spotlight too much – organizers have said he intends to play a “major role” every night – it could backfire in the same way that a single controversial tweet has a tendency to derail the day’s messaging at the White House.
“Trump wants to be on that stage in some way every day,” said Michael Steele, a former Republican National Committee chairman and Maryland lieutenant governor. “That’s going to be a test for Trump, and it’s not in his nature to give over ( control) to the professionals who know how to stagecraft.”
Trump is expected to travel Monday to Charlotte, North Carolina, the event’s original host city, as the delegates still meeting there formally nominate him for a second term. On Thursday he’ll accept the nomination on the South Lawn of the White House, and the marquee speech will be followed by a fireworks show at the Washington Monument.
Democrats drew an average nightly audience of 21.6 million viewers to their convention, according to The New York Times. For a ratings- conscious president, part of the challenge this week will be to keep Americans tuned in to the Trump show without turning off undecided voters.
“To some degree I guess I almost think it’s a pointless question: Trump can’t handle anything not being all about him so I doubt he’ll really feature anyone but him, other than his family,” said GOP consultant and Trump critic Liz Mair. “Basically it’s going to look a lot more like a royal wedding than a convention.”
Political counterprogramming
Trump used the Democratic convention to schedule one of the most active campaigning weeks of his presidency, hitting four battleground states – Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota and Pennsylvania – while juggling an official schedule at the White House.
“Joe Biden is a puppet of the radicalleft movement that seeks to destroy the American way of life,” Trump said in Old Forge, Pennsylvania, about 10 miles from where Biden was born, hours before he accepted his party’s nomination. “He spent the last half century in Washington selling out our country and ripping off our jobs.”
Democrats will offer their own counterpunch this week, though they signaled Friday that, unlike Trump, most of it would happen virtually. A Democratic memo released Friday asserted that Trump had “endangered lives with rallies” last week and slammed the effort for focusing “on one or two states at a time.”
For their part, Democrats plan to hold daily video briefings that will each focus on “a separate crisis” in the Trump administration – hitting on topics such as the economy and health care.
While Democrats focus on a collective mourning of the more than 170,000 Americans killed by the coronavirus – a death toll they say has been caused by failures in Trump’s response to the pandemic – Republicans will attempt to use their convention to throw it forward, several experts predicted.
“Everyone knows the human toll – the economic and health fallout from this – but the question is how do we move forward,” Gorman said. “Elections are about the future.”