USA TODAY International Edition
Contrasting styles featured in best vs. best
ARLINGTON, Texas – It is the best against the best, and Major League Baseball can’t often say that about its jewel event.
For the first time since 2013, the teams with the best records in their respective leagues will meet in the World Series. And the Rays and the Dodgers were both so dominant in this pandemic- shortened season, it’s hard to say the results would have been much different had they played more than the 60 regular- season games.
So what happens when the platoonhappy, heat- bringing Rays match up against the star- laden, October- seasoned, title- starved Dodgers?
With Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman having fingerprints on both clubs, and his protégé, trade- happy Rays general manager Erik Neander espousing similar philosophies, these clubs should have a good feel for one another.
Yet their paths to victory will diverge significantly. Here’s a breakdown of the whens and whats and whys – and who wins – in this neutral- site Fall Classic:
Schedule, projected starters
All games at Globe Life Field, 8: 08 or 8: 09 ET, on Fox. * if necessary
Game 1, Tuesday: Rays ( Tyler Glasnow, 5- 1, 4.08 ERA) at Dodgers ( Clayton Kershaw, 6- 2, 2.16 ERA)
Game 2, Wednesday: Rays ( Blake Snell, 4- 2, 3.24 ERA) at Dodgers ( TBA)
Game 3, Friday: Dodgers ( Walker Buehler, 1- 0, 3.44 ERA) at Rays ( Charlie Morton, 2- 2, 4.74 ERA)
Game 4, Saturday: Dodgers ( Julio Urias, 3- 0, 3.27 ERA) at Rays ( TBA)
* Game 5, Sunday: Dodgers at Rays
* Game 6, Oct. 27: Rays at Dodgers
* Game 7, Oct. 28: Rays at Dodgers
The Rays will win …
Because they have the most dominant pitcher: Glasnow will start Game 1 and, presumably, Game 5 against Kershaw and will bring an overpowering repertoire and bat- missing ability that should play well in this series. Glasnow struck out 14 batters per nine innings this year and clearly overcame 2019 American League Division Series woes by beating the Yankees in a pivotal ALDS game and coming back on two days rest to toss 2 1⁄ scoreless innings in
3 the decisive Game 5.
Because The Stable is no joke: Manager Kevin Cash’s “stable full of guys who throw 98 mph” in the bullpen have got them this far, surviving a perilous playoff stretch of 12 games in 13 days. With two days off before the World Series, and off days after Games 2 and 5, this ought to feel like a relative breeze. It’s true: The mix- and- match formula that saw 12 Rays earn saves during the regular season transferred crisply to October: Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks and Nick Anderson earned saves in the AL Championship Series against the Astros. They leaned hard on Anderson in the first two rounds, tabbing him for 7 1⁄ innings of relief against Toronto and
3 the Yankees, and he was diminished against Houston, giving up four runs in 4 1⁄ innings, including a walk- off homer
3 to Carlos Correa. We envision a rejuvenated Anderson against the Dodgers.
Because Cash is money: He was panned for his quick hooks of Snell and Morton in the ALCS – one move backfiring, the other resulting in a Game 7 victory – but Cash is a master at capturing matchups and getting Anderson and other top arms into high- leverage situations regardless of inning. Now in his sixth year, he brings a startling level of conviction to what’s now a very complex job – particularly when the Rays have just three standard starting pitchers. His aces might chafe at times. But few managers match his ability to push the right buttons – or his chutzpah to defend the moves that go sideways.
The Dodgers will win …
Because they are so hard to kill:
Figuratively, of course, and that goes for within a series and every plate appearance. In roaring back from a 3- 1 National League Championship Series deficit to the Braves, they put to rest any notion a group that’s won eight consecutive division titles grew too complacent. And in chewing through Atlanta’s pitching the second time around in that series, they displayed the next- level plate discipline that compelled manager Dave Roberts to call this his best team yet.
Three Dodgers regulars – Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor – saw more pitches per plate appearance than the league average, and Muncy’s 4.43 pitches per time up ranked fourth in the major leagues. Their 4- 3, Game 7 conquest of the Braves was a master class in plate discipline.
They trailed 2- 0 with two outs and nobody on when Justin Turner worked starter Ian Anderson for an eight- pitch walk. Two batters later, Will Smith hit a tying two- run single.
Kiké Hernandez’s game- tying homer? An eight- pitch at- bat. Same with Cody Bellinger’s pennant- winning shot in the seventh, which came with two outs.
In the Dodgers’ four NLCS victories, 20 of their 29 runs – 69% - came with two outs. The lesson: You’re never totally out of the woods.
Because they are patient – but can also hit: This is no “three true outcomes” team, although the Dodgers can hit, walk and strike out with any team.
Lest we forget, Mookie Betts is a batting champ and career .301 hitter. Justin Turner has four .300 seasons to his credit ( including this shortened year), and Bellinger posted a .305/. 406 on- base year in his 2019 MVP campaign.
Playoff hero Smith batted .289 this year and walked nearly as many times ( 20) as he struck out ( 22).
Batting average is empty, you say? Maybe over 162 games. But in facing elite, precise pitching in the playoffs, the ability to put the ball in play against precise, elite pitching – or at least extend the at- bat – takes on a far greater value.
Because Walker Buehler is a biggame pitcher: Buehler’s Game 6 performance – including his stunning escape from a bases- loaded, no- out jam – was the latest in a chapter of save- the- season efforts. Buehler is 26 now, no stranger to postseason pressure – not after he won a Game 163 to clinch the 2018 NL West title, not after sterling performances in Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS and Game 3 of the 2018 World Series, both Dodger victories.
He has 73 strikeouts over his first 10 postseason appearances, which ranks eighth all time on a list headed by Bob Gibson. He’ll likely start Game 3 and a possible Game 7, and good luck betting against him.
The X- factors
Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw. The only players around for all eight division titles and every last postseason gut punch, their stock continues to fluctuate.
Kershaw had a fantastic regular season and two excellent playoff starts before wobbling in NLCS Game 4, a start delayed by back spasms.
Jansen nearly pitched the Dodgers into peril against the Padres in the NLDS – and then found his rhythm in time to close out a pair of NLCS victories.
Have they regained all the significant leash Roberts has afforded them? We’ll find out.
Prediction
Forget the lack of a revenge angle Dodgers- Astros would have produced. This will be a tightly contested, fun and – to those uninitiated to the trappings of the modern game – fascinating World Series. Yet for all the Rays’ ability to match the Dodgers in the aggregate, and platoon and match up and pester and endure, there is just too much talent on the other side of the field. A 32- year streak is broken – perhaps with the embattled Kershaw earning the decisive victory.
Dodgers in 5.