USA TODAY International Edition
A rough winter: COVID- 19 will get much, much worse
US could see 350k daily cases by Jan. 1, and 400k dead by February
Between the cold weather, lax behaviors and the holidays, December and January will be the worst months the United States has seen so far in the COVID- 19 pandemic, public health experts said this week.
The outbreak is bad now, with all 50 states reporting more COVID- 19 cases in the past week compared to the week before. But based on the virus’ pattern of exponential growth, it’s going to get worse soon, public health experts said.
Assistant Secretary for Health Adm. Brett Giroir warned Americans on Monday to remain vigilant in the coming weeks. “Our nation is in a critical phase of the pandemic,” Giroir said.
The virus is spreading more quickly throughout the country, with more than 100,000 cases every day. Hospitalizations and deaths are rising. That means people must physically distance, avoid crowds and wear masks, he said.
“You have a much better chance at surviving COVID than you did even a few months ago,” Giroir said. “Nonetheless, because of the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths will continue to rise until we rigorously adhere to public health prevention measures.”
‘ We’re in for a rough few months’
In many areas of the country, the cooler, drier air of late fall and winter allows respiratory viruses of all types to spread more easily, especially with people spending more time indoors, said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a professor of vacci
nology at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.
“I think we’re in for a rough few months,” Offit said.
The current surge is already more dramatic than earlier this year.
In the worst week of the spring surge, New York had 356 cases of COVID- 19 per 100,000 residents, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. In the summer surge, Florida suffered the most, with 387 cases per 100,000 people.
Projections for the next few months are not uplifting.
Monday, there were 119,944 new COVID- 19 cases in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins data. By Jan. 1, there are likely to be between 300,000 and 350,000 new cases every day, according to one estimate, depending on whether people wear masks and how strict public health restrictions are.
‘ Pandemic fatigue’ = more deaths
Death rates have come down since the spring because of better medical care and because young people, who are less likely to succumb, now make up the majority of those infected.
But Dr. Daniel Griffin, who has been treating patients in New York since early in America’s outbreak, said he thinks death rates will start to climb again, likely reaching a total of 400,000 by February. The death count was about 239,000 on Tuesday.
“Pandemic fatigue” over the holidays will drive up those figures by making it harder for people to stay away from family and friends, said Griffin, head of infectious disease at ProHEALTH, an independent, physician- led health care organization. Young people could bring the virus home to parents and grandparents, who are more likely to fall quite ill.
A ‘ brilliant spring and summer’
As dark as the next two months will be, Griffin and others believe the light will return in the spring.
On Monday, Pfizer and BioNTech revealed that their candidate COVID- 19 vaccine was 90% effective in early results. That means a vaccine will likely start rolling out to millions of Americans early in the year.
There will be more treatments and prevention tools, such as the monoclonal antibody from Lilly that the Food and Drug Administration authorized for use Monday.
“I think this is potentially going to be a very positive, brilliant spring and summer,” Griffin said. “The world is going to change in a really positive way as we get into the middle of 2021.” Contributing: Mike Stucka
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