USA TODAY International Edition
Trump fans aren’t all violent or paranoid
His pocketbook voters could warm to Biden
When then- President Donald Trump’s supporters breached the U. S. Capitol to prevent congressional confirmation of Joe Biden as the presidentelect, it shifted the frame of the Trump presidency and his voters. For many, it confirmed his fascist tendencies that had been hiding in plain sight all along, as well as the authoritarian predispositions of those who voted for him.
For those who had been warning that it could happen here, Jan. 6 was an “I told you so” moment.
Dramatic events like this assume clarifying power. But we need to be wary of the symbolic influence we attribute to them.
For example, the 9/ 11 terrorist attack was another extraordinary, clarifying event in which American innocence was lost. Many liberals — and President George W. Bush — were quick to separate Muslims from the heinous acts that Muslim terrorists committed that day. They appropriately defended Muslims from the crimes that a few committed in their name. They disputed their “othering.”
Similarly, we should resist the temptation to other Trump voters, whose inclinations are supposedly captured by the storming of the Capitol, just as we did Muslims from the fallout of Sept. 11. Some argue that Trumpites don’t deserve such generosity, citing polls that Republicans still accept the “Big Lie.”
The Pew Research Center found, for instance, that 64% of Republicans and those who lean Republican believed that “Trump definitely/ probably won the 2020 election.”
But exit polls reveal a much more prosaic view of Trump voters than the Capitol marauders. Not that the racist, authoritarian, Confederate flag waving rioters weren’t a part of the Trump coalition. But they were only a part.
Grateful for Trump boom
Another segment was composed of those who did well economically while Trump was in office and rewarded him for it. A surprising 41% of voters said their family’s economic circumstances improved over the past four years, despite a punishing pandemic that saw unemployment rise, businesses close and spending decline. Exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool showed that Trump received more than three- quarters of this group’s vote.
That so many indicated their household economy had improved — twice the percentage of those who admitted their circumstances had declined — is due to the success of the coronavirus relief package that Congress passed and Trump signed. It pumped trillions into the economy, such that disposable income actually went up in 2020.
Even though people had more money, the pandemic made them reluctant
to spend it. As a result, savings accumulated. It eventually found its way into stocks and housing, pushing their prices higher, increasing household wealth.
The pandemic was an economic catastrophe for millions. But for millions of others it has been a boon: Their incomes rose, consumption declined, savings increased and their investments grew. Some of these voters expressed their gratitude by voting for Trump. And some of them could well be among the tens of thousands leaving the Republican Party in the wake of the Capitol attack.
Rational self- interest
Electoral coalitions in the United States are composed of diverse groups. It is dangerous to lose sight of this in the ominous pictures of those who waved Trump flags and wore MAGA hats as they stormed the Capitol.
These Trump voters reflect what the historian Richard Hofstadter described as the paranoid style of American politics. They have an apocalyptic view of history, believe in alternative facts and traffic in conspiracy theories. They now compose the activist base of the Republican Party, are embedded within local and state Republican Party committees, and can make GOP officials quiver.
But there are other parts of the Trump coalition who rationally voted their self- interest. These pocketbook Trump voters can’t be dismissed as delusive authoritarians. They are voters who will reward whoever rewards them. They are transactional, not paranoid, open to inducements that politicians normally offer.
Wisely, Biden has resisted the temptation to other the Trump voter — he continually promises to be the president of those who did and did not vote for him — because he knows that electoral coalitions are diverse, and that Trump World includes both paranoid and pocketbook voters.
Biden believes that the pocketbook Trump voter is reachable depending upon how well he practices the art of the deal. Continuing the policies that have sustained these voters, Biden made his first bid for their loyalty with the $ 1.9 trillion emergency package he sent to Congress.