USA TODAY International Edition
Stars, brand names will test Baylor
USA TODAY Sports breaks down the men’s NCAA Tournament East Region: Best first- round matchup: Where to begin? Star power and brand names abound in the East, beginning with defending national champion Baylor, the No. 1 seed. ( Don’t look for the Bears to struggle against No. 16 Norfolk State.) And while Baylor is joined by another handful of national programs – No. 2 Kentucky, No. 4 UCLA and No. 8 North Carolina, to name a few – the best first- round matchup comes between two mid- majors: No. 7 Murray State against No. 10 San Francisco.
The Dons ( 24- 9, 10- 6) are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998 after advancing to the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament, where they fell to overall No. 1 seed Gonzaga. Murray State ( 30- 2, 18- 0) hasn’t lost since just before Christmas and ended the regular season ranked No. 20 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll. The Ohio Valley Conference champions rank in the top 40 nationally on offense and defense, according to the Pomeroy efficiency rankings.
Potential upset: No. 11 Virginia Tech heads into tournament play having just claimed the first ACC tournament championship in program history. The Hokies will take on No. 6 Texas, which stumbled into the postseason having lost three straight and five of eight. The Longhorns get it done on defense, with a unit ranked 13th nationally in adjusted efficiency ratings, per Pomeroy. The Hokies are more reliable on the offensive side and are playing at a season- best level: Tech dropped at least 72 points in conference tournament wins against Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Duke.
The sleeper: It feels ridiculous to call No. 2 Kentucky a sleeper, so let’s toss the Wildcats aside in favor of No. 5 Saint Mary’s, which awaits the winner of the play- in game between No. 12 Wyoming and No. 12 Indiana. The No. 16 team in the coaches poll finished 1.5 games behind Gonzaga in the WCC and was responsible for the Bulldogs’ only league loss in late February.
The winner: Baylor. Not that it’s going to be easy. In the second round, a talented North Carolina team is always on the verge of playing at a level high enough to beat almost any opponent in the country. In the Sweet 16, UCLA or a hot- shooting Saint Mary’s team could knock off the defending champions. Down the line, one of Kentucky or No. 3 Purdue has the coaching and ability to keep Baylor under wraps. But the Bears are the safest pick from a star- studded region.