NUMBERS SAY FAN VOTE HAS FLAWS
To see who’s not All-Star-worthy, look at WAR
Major League Baseball’s AllStar Game is not merely an exhibition, as the winner determines which league’s World Series representative will enjoy home-field advantage for the best-of-seven series.
But the selection process to determine the game’s starting lineups is not quite a meritocracy; rather, that responsibility is put into the hands of the fans via a now exclusively online vote. The fan voting, paper or online, consistently raises concern, as many claim that if fans are the decisionmakers, that the game should carry no real weight. That sentiment has been highlighted many times, from the Cincinnati Reds having seven of eight starters in the 1957 All-Star Game to Aramis Ramirez earning a starting nod last season with an unspectacular 11 homers and 0.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) by the time polls closed.
As recently as four weeks ago, per fan voting, the Kansas City Royals were slated to have seven of eight starters in the American League lineup, with superstar Mike Trout being the lone nonKansas City player. But, thanks in part to a late push from other teams’ fans, the Royals ended up with four starters, likely more than they deserved.
Looking solely at starting lineups, fans occasionally did not pick the best player at each position — as judged by WAR — most notably in the American League. At catcher, the Royals’ Salvador Perez made his third All-Star team and second consecutive start despite being well behind the Oakland Athletics’ Stephen Vogt (3.0 WAR vs. 1.8).
Far more egregious than that, however, was the way voting shook out at second base. For months, the Royals’ Omar Infante and his .550-level on-base-plusslugging percentage (OPS) led the way, but a late push by Jose Al- tuve sealed the starting nod for the Houston Astros star. But neither Altuve nor Infante was among the AL’s top four second basemen by WAR (or the number of wins a player brings to a team over a Class AAA replacement). He fell far behind leader Jason Kipnis of the Cleveland Indians, who was in a tie with Mike Trout for the top WAR in the American League at 4.9, far higher than Altuve (2.3) and Infante (0.3).
In the shortstop race, Kansas City’s Alcides Escobar won the fan vote. While he was not the best option at shortstop, this was more of a tight judgment call, as the American League has had a relative lack of marquee shortstops of late. Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Jose Iglesias were the top three WAR producers at the position, but none boasted truly eye-popping numbers.
The final mistake the fans made was with another Royals player. Alex Gordon, despite ranking 14th among AL outfielders with 2.0 WAR, was elected as a starter, beating out fourth-place finisher Jose Bautista by more than 1.5 million votes.
At first base, third base, designated hitter and two of the three outfield positions, the leading vote-getters — Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout and Lorenzo Cain — were deserving recipients of the honor.
In the National League, fans were largely dead-on. Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Todd Frazier, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper — six of eight All-Star picks — were leaders at their positions by WAR. The only exceptions were at shortstop, with top WAR man Brandon Crawford (4.0) losing out to Jhonny Peralta (2.5) and the third outfield spot, which should have gone to A.J. Pollock (3.7), instead being filled by Matt Holliday (1.1).
Luckily for many deserving players, the Player Ballot (a vote of players, managers and coaches), as well as the managers of the defending league champions decides the game’s pitchers as well as the reserves. That process ensures each team gets at least one representative to the game as well as righting the wrongs that fans might have made.
In the NL, Crawford and Pollock were named to the squad as reserves. In the AL, deserving players such as Iglesias and the two elite catchers (Russell Martin and Vogt) were tacked on, but Mookie Betts and Kevin Kiermaier (who combined for 7.6 WAR) were left off the roster despite there being a total of seven outfielders.
With fans allowed to vote up to 35 times with merely an email address as proof, equal representation from the fans most certainly does not occur.
Whether this helps or hurts the game is a judgment call, but it probably takes a little bit of the luster off the honor of being an All-Star.