RUNS ON RISE BUT NOT LIKE HOMERS
Fielding is one factor limiting scoring increase
The uniqueness of each season is part of what draws people to sports. Immensely gifted individuals put their talents out there and move toward unknowable outcomes. This season is no different, with a once-in-a-generation first half from Zack Greinke and the story line of Bryce Harper finally following through on the
Sports Illustrated cover promise from when he was 16.
But it’s more than individual players; the baseball landscape changes every season. The deadball era gave way to a bevy of Depression-era sluggers, and the juiced-up late 1990s and early 2000s gave way to the more pitching-dominated game we experience today.
First and foremost, it appears the long ball is making a bit of a comeback in 2015. Seven players finished the first half with at least 24 homers, four more than in 2014, which could set up potential 40-homer campaigns. Last year saw just one player, Nelson Cruz, hit that mark, a plateau that was reached by a whopping 17 players in 1996 and 11 as recently as 2006.
Typically, as homers increase, a bump in offense naturally follows. After all, a homer guarantees at least one run, and because there are an average of 0.09 more homers a game — about 435 over a complete season — one would think there would be at least a 0.09 jump in runs scored. This is not the case. Runs a game have jumped by just 0.02 since last year, from 4.07 to 4.09, making 2015 still the second-lowest runscoring year since 1976 (3.99).
By the way, that 0.09 jump in homers? It’s the largest upward trend since 1998 into ’99, a nudge that was more likely than not pharmaceutically enhanced.
And it isn’t like players are reaching base less often, as the major league-wide on-base percentage in both this and last year is .314. For those hoping for some deep truth to be uncovered, look elsewhere, as the explanation seems to be rooted in a lot of little things rather than one strong underlying factor. Players are grounding into double plays slightly more often, walking slightly less frequently and getting hit by pitches at a lower rate. Even though we’re talking about a swing of maybe 0.02 to 0.06 of each factor per game, it can add up.
Another thing keeping offense down is a factor that is not brought up that often — fielding. Naturally, good fielding and pitch- ing can neutralize good hitting, but we certainly appear to be in a golden age for the glove. The last three seasons have ranked in the top four all time in fewest errors a game, and the fourth season was only as far back as 2009. Andrelton Simmons, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado have spearheaded an impressive youth movement of superlative fielders. In addition, runners are being thrown out on stolen-base attempts 30.3% of the time, the highest mark since 2003.
Speaking of a youth movement, young players are shining offen- sively like they almost never have before. Five Wins above Replacement (or the number of wins a player gives a team over a Class AAA-level fill-in) over a full season are generally considered All-Star caliber, and 16 qualifying players in their age-26 season or under are on pace to hit that mark, from Mike Trout to Matt Duffy. Only three seasons have ever seen more: 1884, 1964 and 1993, the first of which might have to be discounted given there were three major leagues operating at the time. One of them — the Union Association — had a very low standard of play.
One popular story line heading into the season was centered on new Commissioner Rob Manfred’s desire to shorten game length. To his credit, the average game is 2 hours, 57 minutes, following three seasons in which it was at least three hours. While this appears to be a step in the right direction, it depends largely on what one compares it to.
In each year from 2002 to 2011, the average game was below 2:57, dropping to 2:49 in both 2003 and 2005.
In terms of fixing a hyper-recent problem, Manfred has followed through on his promise. But with each team’s average number of pitchers used per game staying relatively stagnant over the last few years, it does not seem likely there can be much improvement on the 2:57 mark.
Finally, even though we covered him in depth in last week’s article, Greinke bears another mention. Since last week, he has tacked on another scoreless start, bringing his scoreless innings streak to 432⁄ and putting him within striking distance of Orel Hershiser’s all-time mark of 59. The start also lowered his ERA to 1.30 through 19 starts, making a sub-2.00 ERA look more and more like a sure thing.