Standing pat often best in long run
Teams making few or no moves try to keep one eye on the future
Most fantasy post-trade deadline analysis centers on teams that bought or sold big — and with good reason.
Some players end up in new positions or roles and in perhaps vastly different hitting or pitching environments. And some have left their old teams with big holes to fill, perhaps with new faces.
But what about those teams that made incremental moves or none at all? Some contenders, such as the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees — and even rebuilders such as the Seattle Mariners — weren’t as active as expected. How will they navigate the final months and what changes might they consider now and in preparation for 2016?
Let’s examine some of those teams, players who could be affected and the fantasy implications over the next two months.
Minnesota Twins:
Despite a staff ERA near 4.00, the Twins entered this week as an American League wild card, and the two-month rental of reliever Kevin Jepsen might help secure that berth. But with opening-day starters Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas in the minors partly because of the rapid development of Eddie Rosario (.283 batting average, nine stolen bases, five home runs through 247 at-bats) and Miguel Sano (four home runs, .284 batting average through 81 at-bats), observers expected Minnesota to use its left fielddesignated hitter depth for a significant pitching upgrade.
That didn’t happen, and the Twins will run with what they have. Tyler Duffey (2.72 ERA, 63 strikeouts, 18 walks through 79 innings at Class AAA) makes his major league debut this week after Tommy Milone’s elbow injury, but most agree he has only back-of-the-rotation upside. Jose Berrios is a good longer-term bet, and he has been terrific through his season across two levels (3.19 ERA, 112 strikeouts, 34 walks), but he also is a rookie. Despite a pitching-friendly venue in Minnesota, both have to be considered short-term risks.
If the Twins need an offensive boost from their outfield-DH slot, expect contact-challenged but powerful Arcia (13 home runs in Minnesota last August and September) to get consideration. Streaky Arcia fell out of favor early this season after another slow start and more spring in- juries. Rosario and Sano have minor league options and will need to keep producing to keep their at-bats. They’ve done that so far, but this situation might be more fluid than it seems.
San Diego Padres:
Three games below .500 entering Monday, the Padres were expected to begin dismantling the team created this past offseason. But general manager A.J. Preller was unable to get anything done and has suggested the Padres have postseason hopes after winning seven of nine games through Sunday.
Regardless, expect the Padres to put most of their veteran free agents-to-be — including Justin Upton, Joaquin Benoit, Ian Kennedy and Will Venable — on waivers in hopes they clear and some August trades can be completed. James Shields is a waiver candidate because of the $65 million left on his contract and a 4.90 ERA away from Petco Park. But Shields was very good in July (2.50 ERA) and worth a flyer if he arrives in your AL-only league. But unless San Diego can clear outfield room, near-ready prospects such as Travis Jankowski — .341 batting average, 26 stolen bases through Sunday — and Rymer Liriano are unlikely to get significant opportunities down the stretch.
New York Yankees:
A refusal to part with top prospects Aaron Judge and Luis Severino left the AL East-leading Yankees unable to upgrade a mediocre rotation with a 4.37 team ERA entering Monday.
With Miguel Pineda’s stint on the disabled list (forearm strain), CC Sabathia’s season-long struggles (5.54 ERA) and Masahiro Tanaka’s durability all ongoing questions, some of that untouchable farm talent will be thrust into the race.
Severino was scheduled to make his MLB debut Wednesday. Fast-rising Severino, 21, has carved up Class AAA with a 1.91 ERA, 50 strikeouts and 17 walks over 61 innings pitched. Despite a career 2.30 ERA, some observers question whether Severino can be a long-term starter in the majors because of his size and mechanics. But for now, New York’s stellar bullpen will allow him to work in short stints and the Yankees will provide run support. Severino seemingly has opportunity and makes an interesting short-term speculation for the risk-averse.
Boston Red Sox:
The last-place Red Sox couldn’t land the frontline starting pitcher their rotation desperately needs because they were unwilling to gut their farm system. After the trade deadline, struggling Rick Porcello (5.81 ERA) hit the DL with an arm injury. Rookie Henry Owens was scheduled to debut Tuesday, and Brian Johnson is rumored to get another call-up shortly after.
Boston has an AL-worst 4.90 ERA from its starting pitching, which makes both likely to see plenty of work as the Red Sox prepare for 2016. Johnsonis better than his July spot start — four innings, four runs, four walks — suggests. Owens has better stuff and has rebounded in his last 10 Class AAA starts — 2.86 ERA, 54 strikeouts, 18 walks — after a horrible 2015 start. Though both have opportunity and longterm upside, their inexperience and mediocre Red Sox run support make them risky speculations.
Seattle Mariners:
They didn’t launch their inevitable teardown process in July, but they were able to create some 25-man roster room by moving Dustin Ackley, reliever Mark Lowe and struggling starter J.A. Happ. Seattle recalled first basemanDH Jesus Montero and untested shortstop Ketel Marte to take two of the vacated roster spots.
Montero has had a big season in Class AAA, posting a .346 batting average and 16 home runs. Given another disappointing season from first baseman Logan Morrison and the chronic contact woes of Mark Trumbo, expect the Mariners to give Montero significant playing time going forward as they evaluate 2016.
Ditto Marte, who has played shortstop and a bit of center field for most of his Class AAA season, made his major league debut at second base for injured Robinson Cano. A high-contact hitter with runninggame upside (.321, 20 stolen bases), Marte, 21, profiles as the top-of-the-order hitter Seattle needs to replace Austin Jackson. Unless he proves overmatched at the plate, Marte will see time at all three positions to see where he best fits and could be a decent speed source down the fantasy stretch.