DUNN, JACKSON POINT THE WAY
Guards could have impact but have work to do
In many respects, the NBA has become a point guard league. Rules changes have made it more difficult than ever to keep ballhandlers out of the lane, so having an impact player at point guard has become a virtual prerequisite to serious title contention.
Even with quality depth spread throughout the league at the position, rebuilding teams are often in search of that next dynamic lead guard, that player at the point of attack who can give them their identity. Who fits that bill in this year’s draft?
Kris Dunn, Sr., Providence
In terms of size and athleticism, Dunn has everything you could ask for in a modern-day NBA point guard.
He is 6-4 and has a wingspan that could legitimately allow him to defend shooting guards as well, giving him coveted defensive versatility.
He is as quick as anybody in the nation with the ball in his hands, changes direction on a dime and rises up in traffic to dunk with authority.
That gives 200-pound Dunn a tremendous amount of potential on both ends of the court, especially in a pick-and-roll league in which Dunn can deftly split double teams and get to the hoop. Or his above-average court vision and ability to see over defenses helps him find big men rolling to the basket.
Dunn’s shortcomings are twofold.
First, and most glaring, is his shooting. While Dunn’s threepoint percentage over the last two years (35.1% in 2014-15 and 37.2% last season) are respectable, the results are streaky, to the point they visibly impact his confidence in taking shots. Dunn’s shots can go from softly falling through the
hoop to missing 3 feet wide to the left, and there’s seemingly little rhyme or reason behind the cause of this drastic change in results.
He lacks confidence at this stage of the game. For a 22-yearold in a league that values floor spacing as much as the NBA does, that’s a big hurdle to overcome.
Second, Dunn can be turnoverprone, committing 3.5 per game last season, though that actually was a slight improvement over the 4.2 per game he averaged in 201415.
Dunn played for a Providence team that struggled to make shots from the perimeter and space the floor over the last two seasons. The transition to the wide-open NBA might help him in this regard, but his decision-making is too erratic to trust right now.
Still, Dunn has impressive physical tools for the position, and his problems are correctable.
Shoulder injuries limited Dunn’s playing time during his first two years at Providence, which might give decision-makers more faith that he can improve his shortcomings than they would have in a typical 22-year-old.
With his immense physical talent, Dunn is a virtual lock to be the first point guard taken.
Demetrius Jackson, Jr., Notre Dame
The biggest hurdle 6-1 Jackson has to overcome is his height.
Jackson, 21, has a lot to offer a team at the next level. He shot 33.1% from three-point range last season, but that’s more representative of how much of a focal point he was for Notre Dame. He was consistent enough (42.5% on 186 attempts) during his first two seasons that many were willing to write off his junior season as simply a down year.
Like Dunn, Jackson is extremely quick with the ball in his hands and can elevate around the rim. That combination, along with the threat he poses shooting off the dribble, makes it tough for defenses to cover him off of pickand-rolls.
And he has strength and long arms that help him overcome his size defensively.
But his size hurts Jackson on both ends of the court, especially in the way it restricts the passing lanes he can see.
Still, Jackson has enough natural talent and feel for the game for somebody to take a gamble on him, and he very well could be the second point guard taken.
Wade Baldwin, Soph., Vanderbilt
Baldwin is the third point guard rated on many boards, with size for his position (6-4, 200 pounds), a strong, well-developed frame and the ability to rise up in the lane and finish in traffic. He connected on more than 40% of his three-point attempts in each of his two seasons of college basketball.
While Baldwin, 20, has a strong base of skills to build upon on both ends of the court, he is raw. His underdeveloped ballhandling skill for a point guard greatly limits his ability to create in the halfcourt, as does his inconsistency shooting off the dribble. Defensively, Baldwin has all the tools in the world but struggles to maintain focus, and his effort level wanes at times.
It’s possible he could end up being a lottery pick based on his physical tools and long-term potential.
He also has a high enough baseline skill set to be a virtual guarantee to be a good rotation player, limiting some of the risk in selecting him.
How much confidence there is in whether he can reach his full potential likely will determine just how high he goes.