NUMBERS SAY SIMMONS IS CAN’T-MISS
Croat Bender’s upside certain to be rewarded
Taking a look at the top power forwards in the draft, LSU forward Ben Simmons leads the way with star power. But the position also offers high-quality depth and a wide variety of skill sets from which to choose.
Ben Simmons, Fr., LSU
Depending on whom you ask, Simmons’ only season at LSU was either a smashing success or a huge disappointment.
Individually, Simmons’ averages of 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game stood out more than the performance of any freshman in recent memory. In fact, over the last 10 years, he’s the only college player to average at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and four assists per game, and he exceeded those numbers with ease. Even for a player who had so much hype entering the season, it’s hard to say his production didn’t meet any reasonable expectation.
LSU’s lack of team success is where the primary criticism stems from, as the Tigers finished 19-14, losing six of their final 10 games, including an embarrassing 71-38 defeat to Texas A&M in the Southeastern Conference tournament. Not only did LSU fail to make the NCAA tournament, it also declined an invitation to the National Invitation Tournament.
It would be unfair to place all the blame on the 6-9 Simmons, as the Tigers, after losing forwards Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey as early entrants to the NBA draft and guard Keith Hornsby to an injury, were severely undermanned.
Hornsby’s injury, in particular, was a heavy blow. He was a stabilizing presence, both because of his experience and his three-point shooting (41.5% before his injury last season). Hornsby was LSU’s only consistent threat from the perimeter. Neither LSU as a team nor Simmons individually was nearly as comfortable creating in Ben Simmons didn’t lead LSU to the NCAA tourney, but his stats (19.2 points,11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game) were strong. the halfcourt with Hornsby out of Despite the concerns, Simthe lineup. mons, 19, is the prize of this draft
Still, when you’re as hyped as class, with elite court vision and Simmons was entering LSU, your anticipation and incredible touch every success or failure is going to around the basket. Those skills be scrutinized. Besides the way are packaged together in a hyperLSU ended the season, Simmons’ athletic frame that is close to 6-10. hesitance to shoot from the peFew can do what Simmons can on rimeter was also an issue, as the the court, and if he can grow — multifaceted forward attempted both as a shooter and as a leader three three-point shots for the — he has the chance to be an elite season. NBA player.
Dragan Bender, Israel
The 18-year-old Croatian big man is a bit of a mystery. He played 12 minutes per game in the seemingly far-off Israeli league. To league executives, though, Bender has been playing professional basketball since he was 15. While NBA decision-makers would have liked to have seen him more this last year, most have an idea what the 7-1 big man can do.
And what he can do is valuable. He slides his feet on the perimeter like a guard and alters shots around the rim. He has an improving outside shot and aboveaverage passing skills for the position.
There’s still a fair amount of projection in Bender’s game, especially in his physical profile, which, at 216 pounds, precludes him from defending the post with much success.
But the upside of such a versatile defender is going to be difficult to pass up after the first few picks of the draft have passed.
Marquese Chriss, Fr., Washington
Few players have flown up draft boards more since the end of the season than Chriss. Despite averaging 13.8 points and 5.4 rebounds during his freshman season, he is being talked about as a potential top-five pick, with some even speculating that the Boston Celtics could take a gamble on him at third overall.
He might be the best all-around athlete in the class, posting a 38.5-inch vertical jump in the draft combine in May. He’s an explosive leaper, with quicktwitch reflexes that give him upside few outside of Simmons or small forward Brandon Ingram can match. Besides being an elite athlete, Chriss, 18, also shows touch from the perimeter, hitting 35% of his shots from three-point range last season.
With so much uncertainty after Simmons and Ingram at the forward position, Chriss rising is not all that surprising.
Still, Chriss is raw in translating his athleticism into basketball production.
The biggest question that could limit his playing time early in his career is his defensive rebounding, as he hauled in 2.9 per game, an especially troubling rate considering Chriss was playing large- ly center for one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country.
Teams will be tempted to give 6-10 Chriss minutes at center so they can keep his shot-blocking ability near the basket. But doing so with his current defensive rebounding production would put them at a disadvantage, at least until Chriss can develop that area more.
Henry Ellenson, Fr,, Marquette
Averaging 17.0 points. 9.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots per game, Ellenson showcased his versatile offensive game at Marquette.
While Ellenson, 19, connected on 29% of his three-point attempts during his freshman season, most expect that he will eventually be able to translate his proficient midrange game out to the three-point line. Doing so would open up driving lanes for Ellenson, who is talented at taking big men off the dribble and attacking the basket.
The biggest question for Ellenson will be on the defensive side of the court, where he struggles to defend in space and make a consistent impact. At just under 7-0, Ellenson could perhaps play some center as he continues to add bulk to his 242-pound frame. That might be his more natural position down the line.
Brice Johnson, Sr., North Carolina
Johnson capped off an outstanding four-year career at North Carolina by helping lead the Tar Heels to a 33-7 record and an appearance in the national championship game.
Johnson, 21, averaged 17 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots per game as a senior, by far the best year of his career. Johnson is able to get off the ground extremely quickly and with very good touch around the basket.
Decision-makers would like to see a little bit more of a perimeter game, which could open up even more driving lanes for Johnson. His biggest question will come with his frame, as he weighed in at 209 pounds at the combine in May.
Still, Johnson’s athleticism, scoring touch and rebounding ability should help him carve out a role despite his thin frame.