Rookie Anderson source of speed
Fantasy owners know the feeling. The plans they made at the start of the season haven’t quite gone the way they’d hoped.
Even though things might have started out well, those inexpensive fill-in pieces have started to show their true colors. And a team that was once at the top of the standings has gone into free fall.
Yes, fantasy owners know just what the Chicago White Sox are going through. But what’s interesting is the White Sox front office might be moving even more quickly to address those problems than most fantasy owners would.
Last week, they cut the cord on veteran pitcher Mat Latos and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. That came on the heels of a June 4 trade for pitcher James Shields.
These moves aren’t immediately going to tip the balance of power in the American League Central back in their favor. But at least they recognized Latos and Rollins weren’t going to help them and they cleared space for players who could.
One of those moves involved signing 2006 AL MVP and 2014 National League batting champ, Justin Morneau.
The 35-year-old fooled fantasy owners who thought concussion problems had ended his career when he rebounded to hit .319 with 17 homers and 82 RBI in 2014 with the Colorado Rockies. He’s recovering from offseason elbow surgery, so he’ll be on the disabled list for another month or so and is a long-range fantasy flyer at best.
The real turning point came when they released Rollins and promoted top prospect Tim Anderson to take over at shortstop.
The biggest question is whether he’ll be able to hit right away in the majors. For someone with not much power (four homers this season in 247 at-bats at Class AAA Charlotte), he struck out 23% of the time. And he rarely takes a walk (eight in 256 plate appearances). He’s hitting ninth in the order for the time being, so that limits his value as well.
But Anderson, 22, provides fantasy owners with much-needed speed. He stole 49 bases a year ago at Class AA and had 11 in 55 games this year to go with a .304 average.
So while he might struggle with the bat, you can’t teach speed … and outside of Jose Reyes and Dee Gordon returning from their suspensions, there won’t be many more sources of stolen bases entering the player pool this season.
STEALS AT A PREMIUM
Speaking of stolen bases, they’ve become increasingly more valuable in fantasy baseball over the past few years because teams just aren’t running much anymore.
Through Friday, MLB teams had stolen 913 bases in 1,826 games — an average of exactly 0.5 steals per game. If that pace holds up over a full season, it would be the lowest mark in 44 years.
It hasn’t helped that some of last season’s top base stealers have been significantly less productive.
Of the six players with more than 30 steals in 2015, only Jose Altuve has kept up his pace. Gordon is serving his 81-game suspension. A.J. Pollock has yet to play this season because of an elbow injury. Billy Hamilton has missed time with a thumb injury and a concussion. Charlie Blackmon and Ben Revere also have spent time on the DL.
After combining for 228 steals last season, those five have totaled 200 fewer in 2016.
With the scarcity of steals in the game today, it’s probably no surprise that Altuve (18 steals, to go along with a .340 average and 10 home runs) is the top-rated fantasy hitter this season and steals leader Jonathan Villar (22 steals, .298 average) is ranked in the top 15.
STILL IN THE MINORS
Anderson’s promotion aside, fantasy baseball owners have become increasingly frustrated by MLB teams continuing to have inferior players in their everyday lineups when they have top prospects in the minors who could put up better numbers.
The biggest offenders have been the Washington Nationals with speedster Trea Turner and the Texas Rangers with slugger Joey Gallo. Fantasy owners continue to salivate at the stolen bases Turner could give them or the home runs Gallo could mash … if they only had a chance to play.
But unless there’s an injury (or someone goes on paternity leave), there’s a reason why those two — and likely a few others — probably will stay in the minors until late summer.
The easiest way to explain it is through a simulation league analogy.
In Dynasty League Baseball (where I have a sim team), there’s what’s called a “use%” attached to some minor leaguers. It limits how much someone who hasn’t spent a full season in the majors can play — in order to prevent his sim league owner from getting a full season’s worth of stats from a small sample the year before.
Owners have to manage their rosters with an eye toward having their best players available late in the season when the games mean the most. So you hold onto your best assets until you’re ready to make that final push.
That’s essentially where the Nationals and Rangers are with Turner and Gallo, respectively. The teams would have to clear a spot on the 25-man roster to add either player. Even though they’d be an upgrade over Stephen Drew or Mitch Moreland, there’s no rush to make that move right now — especially with both teams in first place.
If a roster spot should open up unexpectedly, an immediate promotion is possible. (Although the Rangers did manage to find a regular spot for call-up Jurickson Profar after he filled in while Rougned Odor was suspended. And he has managed to hit his way into an everyday utility role. Unfortunately for Gallo owners, one of those spots was at third base when Adrian Beltre tweaked his hamstring last week.)
In the meantime, those talented youngsters will continue to play every day in the minors, even though they don’t have anything more to prove.
Unfortunately, the only thing fantasy owners can do is continue waiting.
What about pitchers, you ask? Since they don’t play every day, it’s much easier to move them up and down from the minors.
Major league teams also have more occasions where they need someone for a spot start — as we’ve seen with prospects such as Blake Snell, Julio Urias and Jameson Taillon.
So if you’re looking for help from your prospects, there’s a better chance to squeeze value out of the pitchers. At least at this stage of the season. If they can at least have some success (Michael Fulmer, Sean Manaea, Zach Davies), it could turn into a permanent spot in the rotation. If not (Jose Berrios), it’s back to the minors.
Only later in the season will teams — especially those in playoff contention — feel compelled to create spots for their top minor league hitters.
FOLLOW SENIOR FANTASY EDITOR STEVE GARDNER