Power bats solid, if not spectacular
Gonzalez, Morales should come around; Walker and Frazier ride power surge
In the era of the pitcher, power hitters get an extra boost in value. Fantasy owners want players who make good contact, hit the ball hard, and put the ball in the air instead of the ground.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at performances from the first couple of months and see how likely they are to continue over the rest of the season.
What’s eating at At 34 years old, the Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman doesn’t qualify as a spring chicken, and the days of 30 to 40 home runs (2007-2010) won’t be back. But in recent seasons, the slugger has still been good for around 25.
This season, he has six home runs in his first 219 at-bats. For an explanation, look no further than his deflated fly ball rate.
At 35%-40% for most of his career, he’s only putting 25% of his batted balls in the air in 2016. But Gonzalez remains one of the most reliable players in the majors, topping 550 at-bats in each of the past 10 seasons. Look for Gonzalez’s fly ball rate to return to normal, which makes him a good power investment over the rest of the year.
There’s nothing like watching a young athlete come into his own.
of the Detroit Tigers showed hints of a breakout in the second half of 2015, when he raised his slugging percentage by more than 140 points and increased his home run output from four in the first half to 11.
The third baseman has continued the onslaught in 2016, with a slugging percentage more than 100 points higher than in 2015, and a bump in fly ball rate from 40% to 45%. It’s time to invest.
After spending the first seven years of his career in Pittsburgh, second baseman
headed east to the New York Mets. The change seems to have done him good; Walker is approaching his 2015 home run total (16) before the All-Star break (13 homers so far).
What’s the difference? Citi Field plays more favorable to lefties, and Walker has responded, with five of his home runs against left-handed pitchers in limited action. But a big jump in fly balls helps, too. His 46% rate dwarfs the 37% to 39% rates he put up in the past few seasons with the Pirates.
Be careful, though; Walker’s whiffing more than usual, which could catch up to him. With such a long track record, Walk- er’s fly-ball rate will probably come down over the rest of the year, but enjoy the power outbreak while it lasts.
Both Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and US Cellular Field in Chicago make right-handed power hitters happy. So it should come as no surprise that third baseman who moved from the Reds to the White Sox this offseason, would thrive.
He boosted his fly ball rate from 37% in 2014 to 48% in 2015, a level he maintains this year. Combine that with a .478 slugging percentage, and Frazier should be flirting with 40 homers by the end of the year.
After hitting .290 with 22 home runs, Kansas City’s cost a pretty penny in 2016 drafts. Looks like a sunk cost so far, with the DH struggling to reach the Mendoza Line with only a few home runs.
Time to bail out? Not so fast. Morales is suffering from a low batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but other than striking out a bit more than usual, he’s performing as expected.
In fact, his 38% fly-ball rate tops beats anything he’s posted since 2009. Look at Morales as a good buy-low candidate who should produce plenty of power over the rest of the year. Colorado Rockies third baseman
is ahead of last year’s home run pace, when he tied for the National League lead with 42. Arenado continues to hit the ball hard —slugging nearly .600 — and he’s cut down sharply on his strikeouts.
His fly-ball rate has risen each of the past three seasons; it stands at close to 50%. With half his games at Coors Field, Arenado could approach the 50-homer level. At 25, he could well be in the MVP discussion come late September.
of the Oakland Athletics is just 25, yet he continues to fly under the radar. Part of the reason might be the 35 errors he committed at shortstop in 2015, making it difficult to envision him holding a full-time position after that.
Fortunately, Semien’s defense improved markedly, which moves the attention to his potent bat. Less than three months into the season, Semien is approaching his 2015 total of 15 home runs.
His slugging percentage has risen between 40 and 50 points in each of the past two years, and he’s increased his fly-ball rate. Semien should end up with 20 to 25 home runs, a boon for a low-priced middle infielder.
While Reds outfielder didn’t have many major league at-bats heading into the season, he was a wellknown quantity, having averaged 25 home runs over the past five seasons in the minors. But could he solve major league pitching in regular playing time? So far, so good.
Through Sunday, Duvall was slugging .580, and with a 44% fly-ball rate, the home runs should keep coming. He does strike out a lot — around 30% of his at-bats — so he could stop getting pitches to hit. But at this rate, he’ll top 40 home runs, which is pretty good for a late-round pick.
Moving from the hitter’s haven of Coors Field to the mausoleum known as Tropicana Field will smother anyone’s power numbers. Unless you’re outfielder
who’s on track to match the 24 home runs he hit with the Rockies in 2014.
Understandably, Dickerson’s slugging is down from his time in Colorado, and he’s striking out more than he did in the past. But he’s making up for it by hitting far more fly balls (46%, compared to 32% in 2015). Dickerson isn’t the prototypical masher, but in these days of elite pitching, his moderate power can help your bottom line.
It looks like Texas Rangers second baseman packs more power than just his right cross. In his first extended exposure to major league pitching, Odor held his own last season, popping 16 home runs in 426 at-bats.
Making good contact, hitting the ball hard and increasing his fly-ball rate have him on pace to blow by that total and top the 20 home run mark. At 22, there’s plenty of room for further growth, which could result in monster power numbers over the next few years.
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