ASTROS DUO LEAD TREND
Altuve, Correa give offensive spark from middle-infield positions
The Houston Astros are gaining fast on the Texas Rangers in the American League West, thanks in large part to their two best hitters: second baseman Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa. But the Astros are waiting for offensive contributions from left fielder Colby Rasmus or their first basemen — primarily Marwin Gonzalez and Tyler White. In baseball history, Houston’s dependence on production from up-the-middle players is rare. But in 2016, middle infielders are providing exceptional offense compared to their peers at other positions.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures all of a player’s offensive contributions, weighted by how often each outcome (home run, single, walk, strikeout, etc.) results in a run. It is indexed to league average, so 101 is 1% better than average and 99 is 1% worse. By wRC+ entering the week, shortstops and second basemen are having their best offensive season since long before the advent of the DH, while left fielders and first basemen are struggling at the plate at a historic level.
After pitchers and catchers, shortstops occupy the most extreme position on the defensive spectrum, providing enough defensive value that expectations of their offensive production are typically lower. This season, after averaging an 82 wRC+ from 1973 to 2015, shortstops have hit for a 93 wRC+, led by Correa (125 wRC+), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Corey Seager (139) and the Boston Red Sox’s Xander Bogaerts (129). This is the highest figure for shortstops as a group since 1909, when Honus Wagner led the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and doubles for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Second basemen, who averaged a 90 wRC+ from 1973 to 2015, have been above-average hitters this season, with a 101 wRC+. The last time second basemen hit this well was in 1924, when Rogers Hornsby batted .424 with 82 extra-base hits for the St. Louis Cardinals. This season, second basemen Altuve (161) and Daniel Murphy (162) are each hitting better than any corner outfielder, while Robinson Cano is sporting a 142 wRC+.
In previous seasons, when middle infielders were valued more for their defensive abilities, first basemen and corner outfielders accrued much of the offensive value.
In 2016, first basemen have a 106 wRC+, down 5% from their average production in the DH era (since 1973). The last time first basemen collectively hit worse was in 1963. Left fielders are hitting below average with a 96 wRC+, down 8% and representing the worst mark for the position in baseball history.
As the table on this page demonstrates, there has been a lack of separation between players at traditionally defense-first positions and those that typically employ sluggers. There are several possible reasons for this. It could be that that testing for performance-enhancing drugs, including amphetamines, has made it more difficult for older players, who typically play lessdemanding defensive positions, to compete at a high level.
Six of the top eight major league position players in Wins Above Replacement (the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout, Altuve, the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant, the Baltimore Orioles’ Manny Machado, the Cleveland Indians’ Francisco Lindor and Seager) are 26 or younger, a phenomenon more common in recent seasons.
In truth, though, the positions cited above have performed close to their historical averages in recent years, with 2016 looking like an anomaly. Perhaps a more likely explanation for this season’s lack of specialization is a more recent trend: With strikeouts and home runs on the rise, fielders have influenced just 68% of plate appearances this season, compared with 72% a decade ago and 77% in 1976. It is possible that, after years of reduction in fielders’ opportunities to affect a game, teams have begun to overlook defense and look for players who hit home runs and take walks, even at traditionally defenseoriented positions. This year’s crop of rookie shortstops, including Aledmys Diaz and Trevor Story, are far more valuable at the plate than in the field.
A third possible explanation for our findings is that they simply represent a confluence of talented players plying their trades at middle-infield positions.
Besides Altuve and Correa, Machado, a third baseman, has brought his always-stellar offense (142 wRC+) to shortstop for 44 games this season.
Matt Carpenter has primarily played third in recent seasons but has played more than a third of his 2016 innings at second, contributing to the group’s unusually high wRC+.
While it’s likely the impressive crop of young middle infielders will continue to play well on both sides of the ball, they might not continue to outhit first basemen and corner outfielders for much longer, particularly if hitters such as Diaz and Story move to corner positions as they age.
High Heat Stats is an affiliate of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties.