Time for new look at slow starters
These unlucky seven have pitched much better since rocky beginnings
April is a tough month for baseball: In many northern cities, the weather is still inhospitable, and a lot of players just take time to get into the flow of the season. Plus, every player goes through rough patches when things aren’t clicking, and April is just as likely a time as any for that to happen. As a result, early-season slumps are pretty common.
The problem is that often, these slow starts tend to cloud our overall read on a player’s season. It might take three or four months, or even an entire season, for the effects of a slow start to shake out in a pitcher’s stats.
Even at this point, when we have three months of solid pitching to offset that one bad month, a player’s true performance level can be hidden in his year-to-date stats.
So here we present seven starting pitchers who started slowly, but have pitched solidly since. In all but one case, we’ll present their April stats against their stats since May 1. All of these pitchers make good free agent or trade targets for the balance of the season.
uJon of the Colorado Rockies has a 4.12 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched). Those aren’t terrible numbers, but he has been much better after April 30. He had only two April starts, but they were ugly ones — with a combined 11.42 ERA and 2.19 WHIP.
While he has had a couple of rocky starts since, his 3.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP since May 1 are both solid numbers. And his 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) for the season points to good starts ahead.
Gray was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft, so he has the pedigree to be a top-flight starter.
Obviously, pitching in Colorado lowers his value, but he does have a ground-ball tilt that should help keep him out of trouble. And the NL West has three good pitchers’ parks as well, so he’ll get his chances to start outside of the thin Colorado air.
uMike of the St. Louis Cardinals has a pedestrian 4.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. His April is a big culprit; the righthander put up a 5.83 ERA over his first five starts. His 3.75 ERA since then is worth owning, even in shallow mixed leagues, but he has room to improve, as his overall skills have taken a jump from previous seasons.
Since the end of April, he has gotten things under control, walking less than one batter per nine innings. That has led to an elite 8.0 K/BB over that period, and a number like that usually comes with an elite ERA. At 28, Leake is at an age where a jump in skills is possible — and even if it’s a temporary improvement, it’s one you can ride with his limited downside.
uThe Cardinals’ doesn’t need much of an introduction. But for those who were hoping he’d come back from an injury-filled 2015 and return to the ranks of the elite, April was a brutal disappointment with a 7.16 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.
Since then, he’s improved incrementally rather than through a bolt of inspiration, but his return to the elite was solidified with a July in which he had a 0.93 ERA.
Overall, Wainwright has put up a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP since May 1, supported by a 4.3 K/BB ratio. His control has always been a significant part of his game, and while he walked 3.6 batters per nine innings (BB/9) in April, he has a miserly 1.8 BB/9 rate since.
He’s 34, which puts him past his peak years, but for the balance of 2016, you have a great shot of getting vintage Wainwright.
uR. of the Toronto Blue Jays is also well past his prime, but he remains a good filler for the back end of your rotation, despite a 4.44 ERA. His ugly April, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, is the leading cause. Since then, he’s put up a 3.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
As a knuckleballer, of course, he doesn’t provide much strikeout help, but his 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is at least serviceable.
Dickey has struggled in July, so he’s not without risk. And at 41 years old, he could fade as the season progresses. But as you’re looking to fill a hole, don’t look past him just because of his year-to-date stats.
uBud has a 4.56 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He has bounced around a bit in 2016, moving from a starting role to the bullpen and then from the Atlanta Braves to the Los Angeles Dodgers. His role as a starting pitcher isn’t locked down, but given the injuries to Alex Wood and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are looking for live arms who can go every five days.
Norris’ April was just plain ugly, with an 8.74 ERA and 1.99 WHIP. His velocity was down, and he clearly wasn’t missing many bats. Since then, though, he’s put up a 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, bolstered by a 3.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Much of this was done out as a reliever, which might lead to concern that his skills won’t hold up in a starting role. But he’s had a better K/BB rate (4.6) as a starter since the end of April than as a reliever. There’s risk, but he’s likely a free agent in most leagues and has hidden upside.
uMatt of the Los Angeles Angels was an elite arm in 2014, struggled in 2015, and has had a rather boring 2016 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Like everyone on this list, though, his 9.15 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in April is dragging down those year-to-date stats. Toss out his five April starts, and he has put up a 2.84 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
It gets better: Over that span, he’s also recorded 9.7 K/9 rate and a 7.6 K/BB ratio. Those elite numbers could presage a fur- ther surge in production. Given his previous success and his current skills and production, Shoemaker makes for an attractive trade target for the stretch run. uThe Arizona Diamondbacks’
had one April start, so we’ll instead take a look at his work through the end of May. His 4.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP are less than stellar, but take out his 6.11 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in April and May, and things look a bit better, with a 3.92 ERA since June 1.
Bradley was the No. 7 pick in 2011, so he’s a bona fide prospect, but not risk-free. But if you’re looking to fill a hole or invest for the future, he’s a good place to start.
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