Fantasy: How the deadline deals affect your team.
Fantasy owners are on edge every year when the trade deadline rolls around, because there’s always the potential for huge spikes in fantasy values.
In single-league formats, the possibility of star players moving from the National League to the American, or vice versa, in time to make a difference down the stretch can be tantalizing.
Owners who’ve scrimped and saved their free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) all season finally have an opportunity to spend it on a big-ticket item.
The most interesting story line came in the on-off-and-back-on trade talks for All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
When word first surfaced he was traded to the Cleveland Indians, it seemed like a perfect match: Fantasy’s No. 2 catcher going to the team with the worst on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) in the majors at the position. But Lucroy blocked the deal and went to the Texas Rangers.
Both AL teams have competitive teams in hitter-friendly ballparks, so Lucroy’s ultimate destination doesn’t really matter for fantasy purposes. With a .299 average, 13 home runs, 50 RBI and an .841 OPS, he’s clearly the biggest difference-maker to change teams at the deadline.
At a position that’s so terribly thin, owners in AL-only leagues will get a huge boost in their quest for a fantasy title.
DOUBLE DEADLINES
This was one of the more memorable trade seasons for fantasy owners not only because who was dealt — or not dealt — but also because of the double-barreled action at the Monday afternoon finish line.
Instead of one mad rush to grab all the players impacted by the last-minute deals, fantasy owners had to decide if they wanted to go all-in on the players available Sunday night ... or wait until the last round of trades were finalized and hope someone better came along.
That’s how things went down for the experts in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR).
With the Lucroy trade to Cleveland scuttled, Aroldis Chapman ($86), Melvin Upton Jr. ($77) and Eduardo Nunez ($88) were the highest-profile players to change leagues ahead of the deadline, and they all went for a healthy sum. But there was also a wild card in the mix in the AL.
Houston Astros infield prospect and Futures Game standout Alex Bregman went undrafted in March — and after he was promoted from the minors last week, he just happened to be available as well.
The three teams with the most money to spend were the three top teams in the standings, setting up a game of chicken.
On deadline eve, Larry Schechter, the author of Winning Fantasy Baseball, sat in first place in the standings and in FAAB ($96). Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN was second in both, five points back and $88. I was eight points out of first with $85 to spend.
Upton and Bregman were on the table for the taking. Meanwhile, everyone was still waiting to see what would materialize behind Door No. 3.
As it turned out, Schechter passed on both players. Cockcroft spent $76 to get Bregman, and I won Upton at $77.
Is the bird in the hand — in this case a Blue Jay — worth giving up a chance at what might come along later? Without the benefit of hindsight, I like taking the sure thing.
As it turned out when Lucroy was traded to the Rangers, I wouldn’t have had a shot at him anyway with Schechter poised to snap him up this weekend.
SWITCHING LEAGUES
The Los Angeles Dodgers made their big splash Monday by acquiring outfielder Josh Reddick and left-hander Rich Hill from the Oakland A’s.
Although Dodger Stadium is ranked next to last for scoring this season, according to ESPN’s Park Factors, it’s much better than the Oakland Coliseum for home runs — which is where Reddick’s value lies. After spending time on the disabled list and missing 36 games in May and June with a broken thumb, Reddick has only eight homers in 243 at-bats this season, but he has hit two of those in the past week. He is likely to take over as the everyday right fielder and bat in the middle of the Dodgers lineup.
Hill is on the disabled list with a blister on his pitching hand, but he’s expected to be activated this week. That’s huge for the injury-depleted Dodgers pitching staff.
As long as he can stay healthy, 36-yearold Hill (9-3, 2.25 ERA) should thrive in another pitcher-friendly home park. His devastating curveball has led to a strikeout rate of 10.7 batters per nine innings. And his ability to induce a ton of ground balls has resulted in only two home runs allowed in 76 innings — a particularly useful skill to have when the Dodgers travel to Colorado and Arizona.
The San Francisco Giants, who acquired infielder Nunez last week, made another move in getting left-hander Matt Moore from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Moore, 27, has been inconsistent this season with the Rays, going 7-7 with a 4.08 ERA. But he didn’t allow an earned run over 6 2⁄3 innings in his last start, and he could benefit from the change in leagues. His 2.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best of his career.
Moore and Hill are joined by Ivan Nova (Pittsburgh Pirates) as starting pitcher additions to the player pool in NL-only leagues this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Pirates made another deal at the deadline, sending left-hander Francisco Liriano to the Toronto Blue Jays — making him the only new starter of any consequence available to AL-only owners this week. That should allow the Jays to move AL ERA leader Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen to limit his workload down the stretch.
CLOSER CAROUSEL
For fantasy owners in general, the biggest impact of the deadline deals came at the back ends of several bullpens.
The Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Indians, New York Yankees, Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers all got new closers in the shuffle.
The main takeaway is there’s now even more reason than ever to pay up for the top bullpen arms on draft day, because they won’t lose their jobs if they’re traded.
Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon have been stellar over the past several seasons. They should continue to be as their new teams battle for the NL pennant.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ Bruce Rondon and the Nationals’ Jonathan Papelbon saw their fantasy values evaporate (not that Papelbon’s hadn’t even before the Melancon trade).
Although the Indians didn’t immediately announce their plans, I’d expect ex-Yankee Andrew Miller will get the majority of the save opportunities. Cody Allen (20-for-22 in save chances, 2.58 ERA, 11.3 K/9) has been excellent, so he should still retain enough fantasy value to remain relevant.
In addition, there are now three new sources of saves for the stretch run.
Dellin Betances is the next man up for the Yankees and should already be owned in all leagues anyway.
With Melancon no longer around, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle will lean on left-hander Tony Watson.
And with the Brewers dealing both closer Jeremy Jeffress and setup man Will Smith at the deadline, there’s an opening for a closer in Milwaukee. Remember the name Tyler Thornburg. The 27-year-old right-hander has blossomed in the bullpen this season — pitching to a 2.32 ERA, holding batters to a .182 average and striking out 12.4 per nine innings.