Fantasy extra:
Wide receivers continue to assert their dominance in pass-happy NFL
Our annual blockbuster issue begins with a strategy for your draft.
Nothing impacts this summer’s fantasy football drafts more than what happened last year.
If wide receivers come off historically great seasons, guess who show up frequently in the first and second rounds? If running backs collectively did poorly — and they certainly did in 2015 — then expect to see them devalued and lasting far deeper in drafts. Add in the new crop of rookies, and each season is different. Yet it all greatly resembles what made last year unique.
Learn how to navigate your draft this year. Make your draft plans based on current trends and how you can take advantage of them to construct your optimal fantasy team.
QUARTERBACKS
2015 was a big year for quarterbacks overall and individually. They set an all-time record for total passes (18,284), completions (11,519), yards (132,563) and touchdowns (840). The top 10 fantasy quarterbacks tied for the all-time high with 334 passing scores. The problem is that there wasn’t much difference among them. Aside from Cam Newton filling in as the annual superhero quarterback, there was only difference of about two points per game within the group.
That translates into quarterbacks falling much further than ever on draft day. Unless quarterbacks receive six points for touchdown passes or two can be started, there is just no reason to get an early one.
In most 12-team leagues, expect Newton to go around the third round. Then a round or two later, Aaron Rodgers shows up. And after those two, there is little consensus on which player goes next. If you can wait — and you should — know that the top 10 usually last well into the ninth round, when there will finally be a run on them. In a 10-team league, that final run on starters happens around the 10th round. Load up on running backs and wideouts since their value drains more quickly and you need to start several of them.
RUNNING BACKS
The division of labor in backfields and the emphasis on the passing game serves to devalue running backs more every year. The gold standard of the 300-carry back is nearly extinct in today’s NFL.
Ten years ago, 10 rushers hit that mark. Five years ago, seven still did. That fell to two for 2013 and 2014. Last year, only Adrian Peterson exceeded the threshold. The position set records for the fewest carries and rushing yards. And yet overall, there had never been more targets, catches, yards and touchdowns for running backs as receivers. The total fantasy points of the top 10 backs wasn’t just the lowest ever, it fell off almost 20% from the previous low.
Now the top 10 backs taken extend into the third round. The handful considered to be elite have nearly no track record, and NFL starters can still be found in the sixth or seventh rounds. Aside from the upside of Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott and Lamar Miller, there is no reason to reach early for a running back.
Take a cue from 2015. Of the first 10 backs drafted, only three produced top-10 numbers (Peterson, Matt Forte and Lamar Miller). Half of them failed to end up any better than 20th. Just wait on them unless a seriously good value drops. You really can get your second starting back from the fifth or sixth round.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Expect wideouts to go faster than they ever have. Last year saw the position produce records for targets (10,581) and catches (6,310) and come up only 3 yards short of the most yardage (82,605). Best yet, wide receivers accounted for a record 531 touchdowns. That was roughly a 10% increase of the previous best (493 in 2012). Two of the top three single-season reception totals came last year when Antonio Brown and Julio Jones each ended up with 136.
Ten years ago, one wideout had more than 100 catches. In 2015, there were a record seven. The position has never featured more difference-makers. Not only will the top 10 be gone by the second round, they might be taken in the first 15 picks. If you don’t have a wideout by the third round, your team will be at a disadvantage that will be very hard to cover. In leagues using reception points, expect the top 20 to be gone by the end of the third round.
The best bet is to take two wideouts in your first three picks. There’s minimal difference among quarterbacks and running backs have never been riskier or less productive. Wide receivers are the new king. Fantasy owners have to respect that.
TIGHT ENDS
No matter that Tom Brady is missing the first four games, Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots remains the No. 1 tight end by a big margin. Expect him to go in the first round of PPR leagues and the second round otherwise. Grab Jordan Reed a few rounds later. Then after a few more rounds, Greg Olsen will set off a two-round run on the position when team owners admit they need one.
The position produced records in targets (3,841), catches (2,509) and yardage (27,450) last year and yet the top 10 was actually down a bit from the previous two years. There is minimal difference from one tight end to another after the top two.
Gronkowski and Reed, the best two tight ends from 2015, enjoy that respect again. But there is no consensus on any of the next ones after Olsen starts the Tier 2 run. Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge and Ben Watson come off career years that no one expects them to repeat. So the best plan tends to be waiting until the run after Olsen starts and then just getting one of the top 10. Grab a second one fairly early just to ensure the position is not a liability.
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