Picking right keepers tough task
After starting the season with a full field of contenders, a grueling 2016 campaign is nearly over. We’ll know the winner soon. Despite the drama that’s left as we push toward the finish line, most people are more interested in what can be done to produce a different result next time.
If your strategy was trumped by someone else’s, there’s always next year. So we’ve elected a representative from each team to serve as fantasy baseball’s most intriguing players for 2017.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Baltimore Orioles: SP Dylan Bundy. Moving from the bullpen to the rotation after the All-Star break, Bundy has done the opposite of what generally happens: He has pitched better. The ERA is higher, but key indicators — a .231 opponents’ batting average, 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings — show the 23-year-old is ready for a larger role.
He has a wide range of potential outcomes. He could revert to the player who hit .184/ .238/.202 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in 114 at-bats last season. Or he could build on this season: .339/.395/.527 with seven homers and 34 RBI in 224 at-bats.
Known for his basestealing ability in the minors (49 steals, five homers in 2015 in Class AA), he hasn’t run very much in his rookie season — 10 steals in 12 attempts. On the other hand, he has shown more power than expected (seven homers). One thing’s for sure: He’ll need to improve his ratio of 101 strikeouts to 10 walks.
He has set a career high for strikeouts (111 through Sunday) and is on pace for career lows in ERA (1.59) and WHIP (0.72). But as a setup man for most of the season, he has 12 saves. It’s hard to say what his role will be next year, but he’s worth targeting.
With a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins on Sept. 12, Norris displayed some youthful upside that’s hard to find on this veteran club.
The 32-year-old Cuban has adjusted quickly to pitchers in the majors, hitting .321 with three homers and 13 RBI since joining the Astros on Aug. 21. Remember, he didn’t play last year with his status in limbo. And he was a .335/.417/.580 hitter with 250 homers over 15 seasons in Cuba (and part of one in Japan).
He had a career year in 2015, but a torn knee ligament 27 games into this season stunted his growth. He should be fine for spring training, but is his 19% home run-to-fly ball rate sustainable?
His season ended when he was struck in the head by a line drive, but for a two-month stretch starting in late May he was one of the game’s best pitchers. Over those 11 starts, he posted a 2.36 ERA and averaged 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
It’s a small sample size, but since he was recalled Sept. 1, the second overall 2012 draft pick has hit .311 with six homers and 15 RBI in 61 at-bats. He’s 22 and should be the starting center fielder on opening day.
Last year’s version of Gary Sanchez hit .261/.343/.529 with 11 homers in 157 atbats down the stretch. But he suffered a shoulder injury in February that required season-ending surgery. He’s the likely starter at first in 2017 with Mark Teixeira retiring.
Guess who’s leading the AL in batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage for September? This guy. Entering Monday, he was hitting .391 with a 1.091 OPS.
On the surface, he looks like the same swing-for-the-fences hitter who couldn’t stay in the majors in his first three seasons with the Mariners. But this year’s 11.8% walk rate is a huge step forward. Swinging at better pitches has led to 11 home runs in 134 at-bats and a .507 slugging percentage.
In three seasons with Seattle, Miller’s career high in home runs was 11. This year, he’s knocking on the door to 30. His average and on-base percentage have suffered as a result, but the huge jump in power seems worth it.
Back in the majors after two injuryplagued seasons, Profar is a valuable utility man. He qualifies only at third base so far, but he has played at least 15 games at first, second and third and in the outfield plus another 10 at shortstop.
He has hit better than .300 in the past two seasons but has missed considerable time because of injury. If he can stay healthy, the Blue Jays have their everyday leadoff man.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona Diamondbacks: SP Robbie
Of the 10 pitchers who’ve struck out more than 200 batters in 2016, Ray is the one who looks out of place. Walks and home runs have limited his effectiveness and elevated his ERA (4.66). But if he can get a handle on those … .
The Braves have committed to rebuilding with Swanson as a potential centerpiece. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick hasn’t looked overmatched at all, hitting .289 with a .347 on-base percentage.
He has power but is one of the few Cubs who doesn’t play multiple positions. Crazy stat: In games the Cubs have won, Soler is a .304/.379/.551 hitter in 158 at-bats. In games they’ve lost, he’s hit .095/.230/.190 in 63 at-bats.
Not quite as fast as teammate Billy Hamilton, Peraza has displayed much better on-base skills — hitting .304 with a .332 on-base percentage. With a pair of 60-steal seasons in the minors (and 19 in 25 attempts in the majors), he’s the front-runner for the Reds’ leadoff spot next season.
He has taken a huge step forward and is worth starting in just about every format. The clincher: He blanked the San Diego Padres on Saturday on four hits and struck out a Coors Field-record 16 batters.
He wasn’t fully healthy to start the season — and the results showed it. But thanks to a second-half power surge, he leads all catchers with 25 home runs. He’s one of the majors’ best contact hitters, but the knock on him is he hits everything on the ground. That skill has produced a .293 average in four seasons. Yelich has done a better job of driving the ball this year — and he has obliterated his career highs with 19 home runs and 93 RBI.
The Brewers lead the majors in stolen bases, and Perez, with 31, has been one of their top contributors. He also has hit .269 with 13 home runs after never giving any hint of that before.
His season was a huge disappointment, even before thoracic outlet syndrome brought it to a premature end. This was the first time he has had a season ERA over 2.73, so it’s possible he reverts back to the old healthy Harvey.
In his second start with the Phillies, he tossed a three-hit shutout with 16 strikeouts. The Phillies shut down the 24-year-old after 136 innings, but he should be good for a full season in 2017.
Another live-armed 24-year-old, Taillon missed the 2014 and 2015 seasons after elbow and hernia surgeries. But he surprised almost everyone by dominating in the minors and posting a 3.39 ERA in 16 starts with Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals’ No. 1 prospect, Reyes has a fastball that touches triple digits. He’s been outstanding (1.03 ERA, 10.3 K/9) over 28 innings as both a starter and reliever. If he can get a handle on his walk rate (4.6 BB/9) he could be a front-line starter next year.
Making his major league debut at 28, Schimpf has shown his power numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League were no fluke, hitting 19 home runs and posting a .893 OPS in less than half a season with San Diego.
Who will be the Giants’ closer next season? Strickland has the skill set to succeed but needs to show over the final two weeks that he can get the job done consistently.
From MLB.com’s Andrew Simon: Four players have at least 10 home runs, 25 stolen bases and a .900 OPS this season. Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and Turner — in only 60 games. Imagine what he could do over a full season. Now that’s intriguing.
FOLLOW SENIOR FANTASY EDITOR STEVE GARDNER