Fresh faces in 2017’s first round
Stats say draft them early next year, but can they repeat their success?
So, how’d your first-round pick pan out this year? Chances are, not too bad.
It has been a productive year for 2016’s first-round class, as seven of the top 15 picks (per the National Fantasy Baseball Championship) have earned at least $30 in standard Rotisserie formats, and 11 have returned at least $25. Consider this success the exception, not the rule, as first-round picks historically have churned out firstround value one-third of the time.
We can learn some lessons from top picks that didn’t quite work out. Giancarlo Stanton (10th overall; $12) was a true bust, as contact issues and the injury bug reared their ugly heads. Carlos Correa (seventh; $21) hardly went belly-up, but his abbreviated MLB track record should have been a warning sign. Bryce Harper’s (third, $24) 2015 breakout screamed regression after he failed to reach $25 in each of his first three seasons.
First-round real estate will be tight next season, given the overall success of 2016’s class, and there will be plenty of options to choose from. At BaseballHQ.com, we have three main tenets to follow when deciding on your first-round anchor: a long track record (ideally two to three years) of excellent MLB performance; premier underlying skills to back it up and an ability to stay healthy.
With these in mind, let’s have a look at new names that will be thrown into the first-round conversation this offseason and whether they deserve it:
VETERAN CONTENDERS
uOutfielder Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox was on the cusp of the first round this season, thanks to a breakout 2015 performance, but fantasy owners wanted to see if he could do it again. Betts has answered emphatically with a .314 batting average, 30 home runs and 24 stolen bases. He’s the only MLB hitter to go 30/20 this season.
Absolutely. Betts has put up first-round production for two full years, he has been healthy, and his skills suggest more .300 batting average, 20/20 (or more) seasons will be commonplace. At 23, there is a legit case for Betts as a topfive pick in 2017.
uDespite an April trip to the disabled list (toe), of the Colo- rado Rockies is having another impact season across all categories. He has hit above .300 in each month since May and has paired that with a career-high 27 home runs through 520 at-bats. Blackmon’s stolen-base total (16) has waned somewhat — perhaps related to the injury — but he has been one of the game’s best outfielders.
Should he be? Blackmon’s not the flashiest choice at the end of the first round, but there’s no doubting his production. He’s one of three players — along with Mike Trout and Jose Altuve — to post $30-plus in standard formats in three consecutive seasons. Blackmon makes plenty of contact, his line-drive swing will keep a .300 average in sight, and his raw power continues to improve. He’s a good bet to repeat his 2016 performance if he stays in Colorado, and there’s room for more if he gets aggressive on the bases again.
uFirst baseman Edwin Encarnacion of the Toronto Blue Jays has hit 40 home runs with 118 RBI (third- and second-most, respectively, in the major leagues), which makes him a first-round candidate entering 2017. Though he’s hitting .265, early drafters will like Encarnacion’s power consistency, as he has smashed at least 34 home runs in each of his last five seasons, with 500-plus at-bats in four of those campaigns. Should he be? Encarnacion is a reliable player, but he’s not a first-rounder for several reasons: First, his strikeout rate his increased each of the last four years. Second, a consistently subpar batting average on balls in play (BABIP) caps Encaracion’s batting average upside. Third, he has no speed, which makes him a three-category producer (runs, RBI and homers) at best. Encarnacion might leave hitter-friendly Rogers Centre as a free agent this offseason, and with 27 other 30-homer hitters in 2016, you can wait on power-only types.
uStarling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates was a top-25 pick after his breakout 2015 season, and owners hoping for a repeat have been handsomely rewarded. Marte boasts career highs in batting average (.311) and stolen bases (47); he’s the only player in baseball with a .300/45-steal combination. Marte’s power has softened this season (nine home runs), and he has been out for much of September (back), but he has put up first-round production in consecutive seasons.
Should he be? Despite Marte’s lack of power, the case certainly could be made. Some might look at his .380 BABIP and call for a major batting average dip, but it’s not far off from his career .359 mark. Marte makes enough contact for his elite speed to flourish, and he runs nearly every time he gets a chance. He might not squeeze into the first round, but if you can pair Marte with a power source for your first two picks, you’ll be in great shape.
OUT OF NOWHERE
Infielders Jonathan Villar of the Milwaukee Brewers, Daniel Murphy of the Washington Nationals and Brian Dozier of the Minnesota Twins have all been top-10 hitters in 2016. They’ve done it in different ways: Villar has been a stolenbase machine (56 through Sunday), Murphy’s fighting for the batting title with a .348 average, and Dozier has hit 41 home runs (28 in the second half ).
Resist the urge to bank on a repeat of these one-year outliers.
Villar’s on pace to have the most strikeouts for any 50-steal season in the history of the game. It’s safe to say there’s consider- able batting average risk once his .381 BABIP comes back to earth. Villar draws walks and runs every chance he gets, so while he’s a perennial 50-steal candidate, his inability to put bat on ball coupled with an inflated home run-per-fly ball rate will prevent a repeat in 2017.
Murphy, 32, hasn’t hit .300 in a season since 2011 and hasn’t hit 15 home runs in any other season in his eight-year career. Murphy credits his 2016 success to a new approach at the plate, but he’s much more likely to revert back to career norms than to repeat 2016’s breakout.
Dozier has been a consistent fantasy producer in recent seasons, but never to this degree. His performance comes with plenty of skill support, as he’s making more contact, hitting the ball harder (89.2-mph average exit velocity in 2016; 87.9 in 2015) with more loft and remains productive on the basepaths. We’d like to see Dozier do it again before giving him first-round status, but he makes for a fine Round 2 choice.