Off-speed excellence key for Indians
A player who exemplifies Cleveland’s strengths and weaknesses on different pitches is Make Napoli. The Indians first baseman-designated hitter has been the fourth-least valuable player in the majors on fourseamers but the seventh-most valuable player on sliders.
The Indians offense has been middle-of-the-road overall in 2016, so it will be hoping to face teams that play to its off-speed strengths. A potential matchup with the Texas Rangers would suit Cleveland. Texas has thrown the fourth-lowest percentage of fourseamers in the majors while throwing the third-highest percentage of curveballs.
The pitching staff has been a strength of the Indians throughout the season, especially since the addition of Andrew Miller to the bullpen at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. However, the rotation has been severely diminished by injuries to Carlos Carrasco (out for the season) and Danny Salazar (could return in the postseason).
Cleveland’s depleted staff will be unable to match the Cubs, who have dominated with almost every pitch. Cubs pitchers have provided a combined 200 runs above average of value with all of their pitches, a full 120 more runs than any AL team.
The Indians will instead look to play to the strengths of their remaining starting pitchers, who, like Cleveland’s hitters, excel with off-speed stuff. Corey Kluber’s and Trevor Bauer’s curveballs rank as the first- and fourth-most valuable in the AL. That strength might prove key in any series against the Rangers, as Texas’ hitters have produced the most runs above average against curveballs this season (16).
The upcoming five-game AL Division Series against the Red Sox might prove more problematic for Cleveland, however, given the unmatched excellence of Boston’s lineup against almost every pitch. David Ortiz epitomizes the Red Sox’s all-around hitting quality, providing average or above-average production against every type of pitch he has seen this season. Against all pitches, Boston hitters have provided 68 more runs of value than any other playoff team, making them a threat against any opponent.
Given this mismatch in offensive talent, the Indians might have to look to win in other ways, perhaps by continuing to excel at baserunning and fielding. Cleve- land’s 132 stolen bases were the most in the AL, and no AL team had a better success rate (81%). Indians baserunners have taken the extra base on a teammate’s hit 45% of the time, a higher percentage than that of every team except the San Diego Padres.
On defense, Cleveland has few weak spots; the Indians were ranked as the fifth-best defensive team this season per Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). The Indians’ battery also has thrown out would-be basestealers 38% of the time while allowing the secondfewest stolen bases in the majors. The likely starters in the ALDS — Kluber, Bauer and Josh Tomlin — have allowed 11 steals among them all season.
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