Favorites look to follow through
Analytic breakdown of all playoff series points to a title for the Cubs
The Chicago Cubs enter the playoffs as a favorite to end their century-long World Series drought, but we know October is always wide open. Which team is bestpositioned to cancel the Cubs’ parade?
NATIONAL LEAGUE
uNeither wild card, the New York Mets nor the San Francisco Giants, inspires confidence. The Mets’ once-vaunted rotation is no longer, thanks to injuries, with only Noah Syndergaard left standing. And despite their September surge, an offense that finished 11th in the league in scoring lacks the run-manufacturing capability it will need in October.
A San Francisco rotation fronted by Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto can’t be summarily dismissed. But since the All-Star break, the Giants finished 12 games below .500. The bullpen was erratic in September, punctuated by the removal of closer Santiago Casilla (5.87 ERA) in favor of soft-tossing, home-run-prone Sergio Romo. The offense isn’t positioned to compensate for those flaws, finishing ninth in scoring in the NL after the All-Star break.
Whichever wild-card team advances to Chicago, it figures to be a short stay in the division series.
uThe Washington Nationals own the home-field advantage, and dominating Max Scherzer gives them a puncher’s chance. But season-ending injuries to No. 2 starter Stephen Strasburg (15 wins, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, or K/9) and catcher Wilson Ramos (.307 batting average, 22 home runs) are significant blows. And offensive star Daniel Murphy (.347, 25 HR) missed the final 12 days of the season because of a leg strain, leaving us guessing as to whether he’ll return — and what the Nationals might get from him if he does.
Minus some power and two of their three .300 hitters, the Nationals’ run production fell to four runs a game in September. The pitching staff has held up relatively well, but Washington will need continued contributions from overachieving Tanner Roark (16-10, 2.83 ERA).
No one should underestimate the resilient Los Angeles Dodgers, who overcame unheard-of pitching injuries and the Giants to win the NL West crown. Their late surge also was fueled by an offense that challenged the Cubs in post-All-Star break scoring. Paced by closer Kenley Jansen (1.83 ERA, 13.6 K/9) and multi-inning workhorse Joe Blanton (2.28 ERA in 79 innings), the bullpen led the NL in ERA.
But even with better health, the immediate question is what to expect from the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw (1.84 ERA over 44 innings in September). Kenta Maeda’s September rebound (three wins, 2.73 ERA) suggests he can offer solid fiveinning efforts, but what of blister-plagued Rich Hill, he of the outstanding 1.53 second-half ERA — in just seven starts? And the lineup disappears too often, particularly vs. left-handers, against whom the Dodgers have a league-worst .215 average.
The Nationals have only one lefty starter (Gio Gonzalez) to exploit that weakness.
uA divisional series win would pit the Dodgers vs. the Cubs. Southpaw Jon Lester, who would make at least two starts in an extended series, is bad news for Los Angeles. Plus, Chicago’s versatile mix-andmatch lineups finished second in the league in on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) and fifth in the NL in home runs.
In the season’s second half, Cubs pitchers’ led the NL in strikeouts and ERA. They also paced all of baseball in opponents’ OPS and opposition batting average on balls in play (BABIP), illustrating how the Cubs’ strong defense complements a deep and talented pitching staff. The bullpen is led by lights-out southpaw closer Aroldis Chapman (three runs allowed in 34 innings in the second half ), who is tougher on right-handed hitters. Actually, he’s just tough on everyone.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Texas Rangers will play host to the wild-card winner and have the advantage of a rested Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish waiting in Arlington. Neither Rangers ace has pitched like one in September, though: Hamels has a 7.56 ERA, Darvish sits at 4.91. If the Toronto Blue Jays are the opponent, having ace Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA) queued up for Game 1 will be enough to make the Rangers sweat. But as long as Hamels and Darvish shake off their recent struggles, that should be enough to boost Texas into the ALCS.
uThe other division series pits the Cleveland Indians against the Boston Red Sox. The Indians’ rotation has been decimated by injury, losing all of Carlos Carrasco (broken wrist), most of Danny Salazar (who will try to work out of the bullpen despite a forearm strain) and possibly some of Corey Kluber (pushed back to at least Game 2 because of a groin strain).
Their bullpen, with two-headed monster Andrew Miller and Cody Allen at the back end, will have a decided edge in the late innings. The Indians’ problem will be getting into close-and-late situations. Boston’s offense is not just the AL’s best but has almost lapped the field (103 more runs than the second-place Indians). Mookie Betts, David Ortiz and Co. looks primed to blow through the remnants of the Cleveland rotation, making Miller and Allen irrelevant.
uA Rangers-Red Sox AL Championship Series would feature the league’s first- and third-ranked offenses. Much like Hamels and Darvish, Boston’s would-be ace David Price had an up-and-down season. That erratic ride is summarized nicely by his two outings vs. Texas this year: Six earned runs in 21⁄ innings in late June, then three earned runs in eight innings (10 strikeouts, one walk) in a rematch two weeks later.
Based on season-long numbers, the Boston bullpen (aggregate ERA 3.56) has an edge over Texas (4.41), though they are trending in opposite directions. Texas has cobbled together a versatile setup crew in front of closer Sam Dyson: lefty Jake Diekman and righties Matt Bush, Tony Barnette and Jeremy Jeffress provide a variety of options to control the late innings.
Meanwhile, Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel struggled late in the season (he allowed runs in three of his last four outings). The options in front of Kimbrel have been a patchwork crew all year. Meanwhile, the Rangers have thrived all year on late-inning comebacks, so a late-inning rally or two could swing this series:
WORLD SERIES
Yes, anything can (and does) happen in October, but “anything” can certainly include the favorite delivering what everyone expects. Joe Maddon’s team is just too strong, in all aspects.