SEVEN PLAYERS WITH BREAKOUT ABILITY
As we shift into the 2016-2017 offseason, here are young players whose performance suggests they may break out into stars next season (well before they hit free agency). The Philadelphia Phillies’
24, is shaping up to be the best center fielder in the National League next year. From 2015 to 2016, Herrera doubled his walk total while maintaining a nearly identical slugging percentage and strikeout rates. He has consistently provided above average defense in center field and has vastly improved his running game, pushing his stolen bases from just 67% success on 24 attempts in 2015 to 78% success on 32 attempts in 2016.
26, of the Cincinnati Reds could also challenge for the title of best NL center fielder. In the last two seasons, Hamilton has stolen 115 bases with an 88% success rate, and he’s a fantastic outfielder, with so much range that he routinely turns hits into outs. In 2016, his offensive ability finally started to develop. After a career on-base percentage of .287 through 2015, Hamilton upped his game significantly this season, pushing his on-base percentage up to .321, including .369 after the All-Star break. He was already worth 2.8 Wins Above Replacement in 2016.
In 2015, 25, was on track to become the third Toronto Blue Jay to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award before injury ended his season. After struggling upon his return in late May, he put up a .326/.357/.489 slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/ slugging percentage) line in his final 85 games of the season. Travis has been a positive contributor as both a baserunner and as a defensive second baseman, leaving his relative inability to draw walks his only obvious hole. In 163 total career games, Travis has just 38 bases on balls. If he can improve his batting eye, he will be a great all-around second baseman.
26, posted a breakout season in 2016 for the Arizona Diamondbacks with 69 extra-base hits and a .509 slugging percentage. Although his batting average was just .249, he walked so often that he can realistically put up a .350 on-base percentage in 2017 if a few more batted balls bounce his way. Adding in good baserunning skills and defense that so far has been about average, Lamb might join Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado as elite NL third basemen. The Miami Marlins’
24, is already a star, among the most productive NL left fielders from 2014 to 2016. He possesses great speed and baserunning ability and has maintained remarkably steady batting average and OBP over his first four seasons. What has changed is his power, as his slugging percentage has climbed each year, from .396 in 2013 to a whopping .483 this past season. As his extra-base hits have piled up, his spot in the batting order has dropped. Yelich was the Marlins’ primary leadoff batter in 2014 before starting mainly in the two-hole in 2015. He slid further still, to third, in 2016 and may not move again for years. Yelich has consistently rated well above average on defense, and if Giancarlo Stanton hits behind him for all of 2017, Yelich could be the NL MVP.
With a 0-4 record and a handful of blown saves, the Seattle Mariners’ 22, may look destined for middle relief, but it’s more likely he develops into the next dominant closer. With 88 strikeouts and 15 walks in 512⁄ innings pitched, Diaz routinely outmatched batters in 2016, despite an odd .377 batting average allowed in balls in play. If the Mariners’ defense picks it up behind him, look for Diaz to settle into the ninth inning and for his ERA to fall below 2.00.
The Houston Astros fear their team was fleeced in acquiring
26, after his alarming 4.11 ERA in games in 2016. His numbers, though, were virtually identical between 2015 and 2016, pitching 69 games in both seasons while allowing nearly identical hit and walk totals. This year, Giles had less control, leading to more strikeouts and more wild pitches. Assuming he gets a handle on his wildness and his batting average allowed on balls in play drops back closer to league average, Giles should be back on a star trajectory in 2017.
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