Odds with Browns to break through
Cleveland lined up to notch first win of season
We give the Cleveland Browns a better than 50-50 chance of entering the win column for the first time this season. That’s because since 1982, winless NFL teams are 44-44 straight up (SU) in games following a bye week. These same teams improve to 13-8 SU and 18-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in these same games from Game 6 on out. We’ll find out whether or not the Browns are up to the task this Sunday.
THURSDAY
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders are 10-3 ATS as a visitor in this series. ... Kansas City is 1-5 SU/ATS in its sixth home game of the season when facing a division opponent.
Key stat: Oakland is 22-7-1 ATS as a division road underdog since 2006, including 9-0 SU/ATS as underdogs of six or fewer points.
Who wins: Raiders, 27-24
SUNDAY
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in the last five games in this series. ... The Titans are 1-11-1 ATS at home vs. AFC West opponents.
Key stat: Tennessee is 2-10 SU and 0-10-2 ATS during the final four games of the season since 2013. Broncos, 24-20
The Chargers are 18-8-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Mike McCoy, including 14-2-1 ATS as dogs of more than three points. ... The Panthers are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS at home against non-division opponents during the final four games of the season.
Key stat: The Chargers are 12-1 ATS during the final four games of the season when facing a non-division foe coming off consecutive losses.
Who wins: Chargers, 28-21 Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Houston is 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight games in this series. ... The Colts are 8-1 ATS at home following an away game vs. opponents coming off an away game.
Key stat: Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano is 22-6 SU and 18-7-3 ATS in division games, including 18-2 SU as a favorite.
Who wins: Colts, 27-21 Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton is 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS away during December. .... Cleveland is 6-6 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in this series in games when it has a win percentage of .100 or less.
Key stat: Cincinnati is 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS vs. losing division foes who lost SU and ATS by a double-digit margin their previous game. Browns, 24-23
The Steelers are 9-1 SU/ATS in the last 10 games in this series. ... The Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS following a game vs. the Oakland Raiders.
Key stat: Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 25-6 SU and 21-9-1 ATS during December against .666-or-less opposition, including 5-0 SU/ATS following consecutive SU/ATS wins by the Steelers. Steelers, 28-27
Arizona coach Bruce Arians was 14-1 ATS as an underdog of four points or fewer in his NFL career entering this season. He is 0-3 SU/ATS this year. ... The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS at home vs. losing NFC opponents.
Key stat: Miami is 1-11-1 ATS at home vs. losing opponents coming off a win.
Cardinals, 31-20
The Bears are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away this season. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford is 8-14 SU and 6-16 ATS during December, including 2-10 ATS as a favorite.
Key stat: Detroit is 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as a division home favorite of less than 10 points.
Lions, 31-21
NFL away teams following consecutive Thursday games are 1-5 ATS, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. ... The Jaguars are 1-8 SU and 1-7 ATS at home following a home game.
Key stat: Minnesota is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. AFC opponents. Vikings, 24-20
The Saints are 6-1 SU in their last seven visits to Tampa Bay. ... QB Jameis Winston was 0-4 SU/ ATS in his final four games of the season last year, but the Bucs outgained opponents in the final three games.
Key stat: Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU/ATS in its seventh home game of the season. Saints, 28-20
Division road teams, following consecutive away games, are 6-22 SU and 8-20 ATS during the final four games of the season. ... The Eagles are 0-4 SU/ATS in the last four games in this series, including a 16-10 loss as a four-point away favorite this season.
Key stat: Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS as a division underdog following consecutive losses.
Eagles, 28-24
The Jets are 2-8 SU/ATS in this series since 1980. ... San Francisco coach Chip Kelly was 8-1 SU and ATS following an away loss in the NFL entering 2016. He is 0-4 SU/ATS in this role this season.
Key stat: San Francisco is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games against AFC East opponents.
49ers, 24-21
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS in his career against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS at home during December.
Key stat: Wilson has 15-3 SU and 14-3-1 ATS records during December, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS away. Seahawks, 30-24
The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an away favorite. ... Los Angeles has been outgained in 30 of its last 44 home games.
Key stat: Atlanta is 1-10 ATS as a favorite against opponents that lost their previous game by double-digits, including 0-6 ATS away. Falcons, 28-27
Dallas is 18-12 SU/ATS against division opponents in Sunday night games. ... New York is 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series.
Key stat: NFL Sunday night division home underdogs with a .500-or-greater record (read: the Giants) are 6-12 SU and 6-11-1 ATS, including 1-6-1 ATS as underdogs of more than two points.
Who wins: Cowboys, 31-27
MONDAY
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday night games, including 5-0 in the last five. ... The Patriots are 16-7 SU and 14-8 ATS on Monday nights since 2000.
Key stat: Baltimore is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its sixth away game of the season since 2010.
Who wins: Patriots, 27-24
Lawrence publishes the weekly Playbook Football Newsletter and the Playbook Football Preview Guide Preview magazine (Playbook.com). You can follow him on Twitter @MarcLawrence or on the Playbook Cube app.