Wagering tips,
Trends working against many contenders
The penultimate week of the 2016 NFL regular season promises to either make or break the playoff hopes of a handful of teams in each conference, at minimum.
The Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos and the Tennessee Titans find themselves on the periphery in the AFC wild-card chase, as do the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts.
Meanwhile the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Redskins are on the outside looking in at the NFC wild-card race, with the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints hanging on to slight chances.
Let’s take a look at this week’s card.
THURSDAY
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
New York is 11-0 against the spread (ATS) away in division games after non-division games and when facing an opponent coming off a loss. ... Philadelphia is 13-4 straight up (SU) and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 games in this series.
Key stat: Giants QB Eli Manning is 17-7 SU/ATS during December against sub-.500 opponents, including 11-1 ATS after a non-division game.
Who wins: Giants, 21-20
SATURDAY
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
The Redskins are 1-6 SU before facing the Giants. ... The Bears are 10-2 SU/ATS in the last 12 games in this series, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six games as a host.
Key stat: Chicago is 25-6 ATS as a home underdog after consecutive losses, including 6-0 ATS in
the last six such scenarios. Who wins: Bears, 27-24 Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Miami is 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS following the New York Jets. ... .500 teams in Game 15 of the NFL season are 10-31-3 ATS as favorites in division games.
Key stat: Buffalo is 5-0 SU/ ATS in final home games of the season the last five years.
Who wins: Bills, 24-17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games on Saturday. ... Saints QB Drew Brees is 1-7-1 ATS in his career during December after an underdog win.
Key stat: New Orleans is 5-1 SU/ATS in this series when looking to avenge a loss from the most recent meeting.
Who wins: Saints, 31-21 Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
The Falcons are 11-1 ATS in final away games of the season ... The Panthers are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in division games after the Redskins.
Key stat: Carolina is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in final home games of the season the last eight years.
Who wins: Panthers, 28-24 Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Minnesota is 5-1 SU/ATS in its
last six games on Saturdays. ... The Packers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS following the Bears. Key stat: Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS at home during December. (14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 games.) Who wins: Packers, 27-21 New York Jets at New England Patriots
The Jets are 7-0 ATS in the last seven games in this series. ... New England is 7-1 SU/ATS in final home games of the season the last eight years.
Key stat: Before this season, the Jets had outgained the Patriots in each of the previous six games in this series.
Who wins: Patriots, 27-14 Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Jacksonville. ... Nine consecutive losses by Jaguars is a single-season franchise record.
Key stat: Jacksonville is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in final home games of the season after consecutive losses in their franchise history.
Who wins: Jaguars, 24-20 San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers are 2-6 SU/ATS in the last eight games on Saturdays. ... The Browns are 5-0 ATS against AFC West opponents after consecutive losses.
Key stat: Cleveland is 9-5 SU and 10-3-1 ATS at home vs. West Coast teams as an expansion team since 1999, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS against sub-.500 opponents. Who wins: Browns, 24-21 Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck is 13-4 SU and 10-5-2 ATS during December in his NFL career. ... The Raiders are 1-7 ATS as favorites before facing the Denver Broncos.
Key stat: Oakland is 7-19 SU and 8-18 ATS following the Chargers, including 1-8 SU/ATS as a favorite. Who wins: Colts, 27-23 San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers are 0-9 ATS away in division games after away games. ... The Rams are 6-1 ATS after a SU/ATS loss before facing the Arizona Cardinals.
Key stat: Los Angeles is 5-1 SU/ATS after a game in which it scores fewer than seven points. Who wins: Rams, 24-17 Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Cardinals coach Bruce Arians is 4-1 SU/ATS after consecutive losses in this NFL career. ... Seattle is 0-3 SU/ATS before facing the 49ers.
Key stat: Seattle is 1-7 ATS at home in division games following a game in which it allowed three or fewer points.
Who wins: Seahawks, 28-27 Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
The Bengals had more penalty yards than total yards in last weekend’s second half of a loss to Pittsburgh ... Houston is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as a favorite under head coach Bill O’Brien against opponents coming off a loss.
Key stat: Cincinnati is 0-5 SU/ATS all time against AFC South opponents after consecutive losses.
Who wins: Texans, 27-20 SUNDAY Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore is 3-16 SU and 7-11-1 ATS away in regular-season away games after its final home game of the season. ... Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home when looking to avenge a division loss.
Key stat: Twelve of the last 18 games in this series have been decided by three or fewer points, including seven of the last 11 games in Pittsburgh.
Who wins: Steelers, 24-21 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 9-2-2 ATS as underdogs off consecutive losses, including 4-0-1 ATS when they have winning records. ... The Chiefs are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in final home games of the season the last nine years.
Key stat: Kansas City is 2-10 ATS as a favorite in this series.
Who wins: Broncos, 24-17 MONDAY Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday night games. ... Dallas is 2-11 ATS at home after a home game, including 1-7 ATS after a win.
Key stat: The Cowboys are 3-8 SU/ATS in final home games of the season the last 11 years, including 0-5 ATS after a non-division game.
Who wins: Cowboys, 28-27