Season in review, Vegas style,
With Super Bowl LI on the horizon, here’s a quick look back at what we learned this 2016 NFL season. With the exception of the Super Bowl, the final exams are in and here’s what our database has to report.
Let’s start by taking a divisionby-division look at what we saw, from a Las Vegas perspective, during the regular season.
AFC EAST
For the second year in a row, the AFC East finished a combined 36-28 straight up (SU) overall, with two teams (the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots) earning playoff berths. The division beat the NFC West in 10 of 16 games this season while going 10-4-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games thanks to a 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS winning run from Nov. 20 on out. Best spread record — Patri
ots: 13-3 ATS Worst spread record — New York Jets: 7-9 ATS
AFC NORTH
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers landing a playoff spot for the third consecutive year, the division was weighed down by the worst team in the league (Cleveland Browns at 1-15) and a subpar season by the Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1). As a result, the division finished 2637-1, making it the conference leader with fewest wins and most losses. FYI: Like the San Diego Chargers last season, Cleveland was the only team in the league to go winless in all six division games this campaign. In addition, AFC North underdogs were 3-26 SU and 8-21 ATS. Best spread record — Steel
ers: 9-7 ATS Worst spread record — Browns: 4-12 ATS
AFC SOUTH
The AFC South improved by four wins overall in 2016 as it went 29-35 SU. But its teams were 27-34-3 ATS as well, giving it the worst collective spread mark in the league over the past two seasons at 56-69-3 ATS. The teams in the AFC South, though, were 4-0 SU/ATS with extra rest after a bye. But it had difficulty sustaining winning streaks, going 9-18 SU and 7-19-1 ATS after a victory.
Best spread record — Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-8-1 ATS Worst spread record —
Houston Texans: 6-9-1 ATS
AFC WEST
For the second consecutive season, the AFC West sent two teams to the playoffs, and one of the non-playoff teams was the defending Super Bowl-champion Denver Broncos. Instead, the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders extended their seasons, each going one-game-and-out. Once again, the AFC West was best away from home this season, sporting 18-14 SU and 20-12 ATS marks for a terrific two-year combined record of 34-30 SU and 43-21-1 ATS as visitors. Included was an outstanding 7-1 SU/ATS record at NFC South sites. Note: The now-Los Angeles Chargers are 3-15 SU in division games since 2014 Best spread record — Raid
ers: 10-6 ATS Worst spread record — Chargers: 7-9 ATS
NFC EAST
The most improved division in the league, the NFC East, rebounded from a league-worst 26-38 SU record last season to win league honors in 2016 going by 39-24-1 SU overall. Leading the turnaround charge were the Dallas Cowboys, who improved a league-best nine games. It also didn’t hurt going 11-4-1 SU and 13-3 ATS in clashes against the AFC North.
Best spread record — Cowboys and Washington Redskins: 10-6 ATS
Worst spread record — Phil
adelphia Eagles: 8-8 ATS
NFC NORTH
The coldest division in the league, the NFC North, cooled in nonconference play, going 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS against AFC foes in 2016 as opposed to 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS against the AFC West last season. As a result, its 30-34 SU overall record this season represented a decline of four games. Somehow, though, the NFC North managed to send two teams — the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers this year — to the postseason for the second consecutive season. Best spread record — Pack
ers: 9-6-1 ATS Worst spread record — Chicago Bears: 7-9 ATS
NFC SOUTH
Sans the Carolina Panthers’ astonishing 15-1 SU effort last season, NFC South teams fell three wins short of their 36 in 2015, going 33-31 SU overall this campaign. The division’s teams were 36-27-1 ATS, though, including a league-best 24-8 ATS as underdogs. Thanks to a season-ending win at Carolina, the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers joined the Atlanta Falcons with winning records this year.
Best spread record — New
Orleans Saints: 11-5 ATS Worst spread record — Panthers: 6-8-2 ATS Hands down the worst performance by a division this season, the NFC West plummeted from 35 wins last season to 23 this year. As a result, it also compiled a league-worst 21-35-4 ATS overall record.
Hence, it was no surprise that two of the division’s four head coaches were fired. Best spread record — Seattle
Seahawks: 7-8-1 ATS Worst spread record — San Francisco 49ers: 4-11-1 ATS
FLIP FLOPS
A whopping seven NFL teams improved from losers in 2015 to winners in 2016: Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Raiders, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.
On the other side of the coin, four winning teams in 2015 — Panthers, Bengals, Jets and Arizona Cardinals — had losing records.
Of 42 teams that that flipflopped from losers to winners from one season to the next during the last 12 seasons, 18 reverted to their losing records — including the Panthers and Jets in 2016.
On the other side of the coin, 35 teams went from winners to losers over the same span, with only 16 of them managing to reemerge as winners the following season — including the Cowboys, Lions and Baltimore Ravens this season.
PLAYING FAVORITES
Being the ’dog lover I am, it was tough to see NFL favorites dominate the ATS scorecards in 2016.
On the surface, favorites were a 50-50 proposition, going 121121-9 ATS.
However, considering that favorites had recorded overall losing seasons in seven of the previous eight, it made ferreting out live underdogs a tricky proposition.
Particularly troublesome was the fact that 13 favorites of seven or more points managed to win the game on the scorecard yet fail to beat the spread. That’s noteworthy considering that over the previous 10 seasons a total of 277 favorites managed to do the same, meaning that favorites of this size cashed in at a clip better than twice the normal amount of times in 2016 than they did the previous 10 seasons.
WRONG ROUTE TO THE SUPER BOWL
If you had Dallas or Seattle as your team to make it to the Super Bowl, you can take solace knowing they were the only two teams in the league this season to sweep all four of their non-conference opponents.
BEST IN CLASS ...
Best team in a favorite role: Patriots (13-3 ATS)
Best team in an underdog role: Falcons (5-1 ATS)
Best team in division games: Ravens, Chiefs (5-1 ATS)
Best team in non-division games: Patriots (9-1 ATS)
Best team in games off a win: Patriots (10-3 ATS)
Best team in games off a loss: Colts (6-2 ATS)