It’s my turn to go out on a limb
Now that fantasy draft season has passed, we can look ahead to what’s in store for us in 2017.
Every year begins with a certain degree of optimism, but in order to be successful, fantasy owners have needed to focus mostly on projections and player rankings based on what their most likely outcomes will be.
But by the time October rolls around, we see things happen no one could have imagined at the beginning of the season.
Jonathan Villar and Jean Segura are top-10 fantasy hitters? Rick Porcello is a 22-game winner? Jeanmar Gomez gets 37 saves?
At the beginning of every season, I like to take a step back from the probable and briefly consider the possible by making a few out-on-a-limb predictions.
Really, there’s no downside. They’re fun — and if they’re way off the mark, they can easily be dismissed. But as long as they’re grounded in at least a small piece of reality, they help remind us not to be so surprised when crazy things do end up happening.
So here goes our bold fantasy projections for 2017:
uGiancarlo Stanton stays healthy and hits 60 home runs.
The Miami Marlins slugger’s impressive raw power has never been in question. We know from MLB’s Statcast data that no one in the game hits the ball harder.
Stanton’s biggest problem has been injuries. He has played in 140 or more games only twice in his seven seasons with the Marlins.
With home runs last season inching closer to an all-time high (1.16 per game), a healthy Stanton, 27, is in perfect position to challenge the 60-homer mark, something we haven’t seen since Barry Bonds set the single-season record of 73 in 2001.
uKyle Schwarber appears in his 10th game behind the plate in mid-June and finishes the season as the top-ranked fantasy catcher. I thought Schwarber was being overdrafted last season when he had catcher eligibility. Now, if anything, he’s being underdrafted because he’s just another outfielder with some power.
However, the Chicago Cubs are going to be using him as their leadoff hitter, which means he’ll get a ton of at-bats in what was (without him) the No. 3 offense in the majors last season. Schwarber’s excellent on-base skills will lead to a ton of runs. And he’ll do his share of damage at the plate as well.
But offense is the easy part. Getting into the game at catcher when the Cubs have Willson Contreras and Miguel Montero is a bit more difficult. My guess is manager Joe Maddon will make enough double-switches and other creative lineup moves to get Schwarber his 10 games (which is generally the threshold needed to qualify for a new position during the season). uByron Buxton will make fantasy owners wonder why they didn’t go the extra buck.
It’s never a good idea to take what a player does in September and project it over a full season, but Buxton’s raw talent has never been in question. The No. 2 over-
all pick in the 2012 draft had a monster final month (plus two games in October), hitting .287 with a .357 on-base percentage, nine homers and 24 runs.
Still only 23, Buxton has done everything he can in the minors. His excellent defense in center field will keep him in the lineup and give his skills the opportunity to blossom.
uAn injury to a Texas Rangers starter finally gives Jurickson Profar the playing time he needs to break out.
Profar has had a winding journey from top minor league prospect to post-hype sleeper to utilityman. Yet he’s 24, younger than Kris Bryant, Manny Machado and Mookie Betts. That’s not to say Profar just needs regular playing time to become a fantasy first-rounder, but what might happen if he gets it? His versatility allows him to fill in at either middle infield spot or third base — in addition to the playing time he’ll get to start the season as part of the mix in left field.
After he missed all of the 2014 season and most of 2015 with injuries, it seems about time things start to balance out for Profar.
uKeon Broxton will be this year’s version of Jonathan Villar.
Broxton went hitless in his first 16 at-bats last season and was demoted to the minors. When he returned in July, he hit .294/.399/ .538 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in 143 at-bats with eight homers and 16 stolen bases.
Broxton was on fire this spring as well, with a .941 OPS (though just 2-for-7 on stolen base attempts). If your fantasy league doesn’t penalize for strikeouts (36% whiff rate in 2016), he’s an all-category contributor. uJason Kipnis will torment fantasy owners all season.
Last year, the Cleveland Indians kept waiting for Michael Brantley to return and make their roster whole. This time around, fantasy owners will be waiting … and waiting ... for Kipnis to get back to last season’s level, but it will never come.
First, Kipnis’ career-high 23 home runs in 2016 were eight more than he hit the previous two seasons combined.
Second, a shoulder strain is expected to keep him out for at least the first couple weeks of the
regular season and possibly longer. Shoulder injuries can be tricky, and with Kipnis due for at least some regression anyway, fantasy owners should be prepared for a season’s worth of disappointment. uJon Lester will be the majors’ only 20-game winner.
This is a bold prediction simply because Lester has yet to have a 20-win season in his career. However, he has won 19 twice — going 19-9 with the BostonRed Sox in 2010 and 19-5 with the Cubs last season.
He has the talent and the team behind him to get 20 wins. It also requires the combination of good health and the ability to pitch deep into games. Lester qualifies on both counts, making at least 31 starts in each of the last nine seasons and leading the majors last year in quality start percentage (26 in 32 starts, 81.3%).
There’s some concern Lester won’t have now-retired David Ross as his personal catcher. But fantasy owners can feel confident dancing with this star pitcher. uEdwin Diaz finishes the season as the most valuable fantasy closer.
This might not be terribly bold since I have Diaz at No. 6 in my closer rankings. But the only reason he isn’t higher is because of his lack of a track record in the majors.
Diaz, 23, was exclusively a starter in the minors before the Seattle Mariners promoted him from Class AA last season. But his upper-90s fastball is a nasty weapon in the ninth inning.
In 512⁄ innings, he struck out 3 88 batters (15.3 K/9) and posted a 2.79 ERA. And if not for a ridiculously high .409 average on balls in play, his ERA would have been even lower.
Diaz has all the tools to be an elite closer — and he has an improved defense behind him this season. And along those lines, a bonus prediction: Mariners lefty James Paxton lives up to the hype and finishes as a top-30 starter. uRoman Quinn comes up from minors to steal 35 bases.
The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t have room for Quinn on their 25-man roster. They sent him to the minors to play every day.