Fantasy,
After the high-profile role the Cleveland Indians bullpen played in last year’s playoffs, one question was repeatedly asked in the offseason: Would the way the Indians deployed their relievers — in particular using left-hander Andrew Miller for multiple innings in high-leverage situations — be emulated by other managers?
Most managers said this spring they didn’t think so.
For one thing, not many relievers can be dominant for more than an inning at a time as Miller was. And there are fewer off days during the regular season to help bullpens stay rested.
But through the first three weeks of the 2017 season, managers seem a little more willing to deviate from traditional bullpen roles. On several teams, it’s uncertain exactly who is the closer.
Last April, 30 pitchers recorded more than one save, with 27 having at least four.
This April, with a week still remaining, 31 relievers have multiple saves, but only 16 have as many as four.
Managers (and fantasy owners) might not like it, but a closer committee isn’t as taboo as it once was. For some MLB teams, it’s becoming a necessity. WASHINGTON NATIONALS The Blake Treinen era lasted 21⁄ 2 weeks before skipper Dusty Baker opted for a “mix-and-match” approach with veteran Shawn Kelley and rookie Koda Glover.
Kelley has the edge in experience, but his shaky health history makes it almost imperative that he not work three days in a row. That was the case Saturday when Glover got the final out against the New York Mets for his first career save.
Glover (2.35 ERA) has been the most effective of the three in the early going. Kelley had two wins and three saves in six consecutive scoreless appearances after giving up a home run in each of his first three outings. Treinen’s high ground-ball rate is a major weapon with runners on base. He still could end up with a few save chances. uPreferred fantasy order: Kelley, Glover, Treinen. HOUSTON ASTROS Ken Giles entered Monday with five saves, but his 5.00 ERA could be a sign he’s on thin ice as closer.
However, Giles is holding hitters to a .188 average with 14 strikeouts in nine innings. He hasn’t allowed a home run. And his 1.76 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is almost 31⁄ runs 4 lower than his ERA.
What’s most interesting in this bullpen is how Chris Devenski is being used. It’s hard to compare anyone to Miller, but Devenski might even be taking things a step further. Four of his first five appearances were for two innings or more, including a pair of fourinning stints. During that span of 131⁄ innings, he struck out 25 3 batters and walked one.
His excellent start is no fluke, either. Of all pitchers with at least 100 innings last season, Devenski had the lowest ERA (2.16) and walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched (WHIP, 0.91) in the American League. The only pitcher in the majors who was better in both categories: Clayton Kershaw. Giles should be a top-15 closer, but if he loses a few save chances to Luke Gregerson or Will Harris, Devenski’s combination of dominance and workload — plus a save here and there — might make him the bullpen’s most valuable fantasy option. uPreferred fantasy order: Devenski, Giles, Gregerson, Harris. OAKLAND ATHLETICS Ryan Madson converted 30 of 37 save chances last season but didn’t get his first opportunity this season until Saturday. Santiago Casilla (three saves) and Sean Doolittle (one) were called upon first, even though Madson has allowed one earned run in 71⁄ 3 innings.
Doolittle, a left-hander, had 22 saves in 2014 before injuries took a major chunk out of his next two seasons. He has struck out 10 batters and walked one in six innings this season. It looks like he’ll get save chances when the opposition has a lefty-heavy lineup in the ninth.
Casilla, meanwhile, racked up 69 saves over the last two seasons with the San Francisco Giants. Madson stepped in when Casilla was unavailable after working two days in a row. That situation could pop up frequently the rest of the way — opening additional chances for Doolittle, Madson or Ryan Dull. uPreferred fantasy order: Casilla, Madson, Doolittle, Dull. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Despite a horrid September (19.13 ERA), Jeanmar Gomez’s 37 saves after taking over as closer were enough to give him the job to start this season. It didn’t take him long to lose it.
Veteran Joaquin Benoit was tabbed to take over and converted his first save chance against the Nationals before giving up a three-run walk-off homer to Bryce Harper the next day.
All the while, Hector Neris has been the best arm in the bullpen. He posted a 2.58 ERA in 801⁄ 3 innings last season with 102 strikeouts (tied with ex-Phillie Giles for seventh-most among relievers).
This season, he has a 1.74 ERA, 11 strikeouts and three walks in 101⁄ innings. Manager Pete 3 Mackanin turned to Neris in save situations in back-to-back games last Thursday and Friday, and he converted both.
While Benoit and Neris are expected to share ninth-inning duties for the time being, Neris has youth and a better skill set on his side. uPreferred fantasy order: Neris, Benoit. CINCINNATI REDS After Cincinnati’s bullpen posted a historically bad 5.73 ERA in the first half of 2016, a reshuffled version improved significantly in the second half with a 4.29 mark. The emergence of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen as highleverage arms who could pitch multiple innings had a lot to do with the turnaround.
After the first three weeks of 2017, Reds relievers led the majors in innings pitched and their collective 3.20 ERA was ninth lowest. They’ve held hitters to a .203 average. And their 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings is also tops in the majors.
Iglesias is the primary option for saves, converting his first three chances and posting a 1.59 ERA. But he also has pitched more than an inning in five of his first seven outings. And Iglesias has yet to appear on back-to-back days. That has opened up opportunities for Lorenzen and onetime Nationals closer Drew Storen to pick up saves. uPreferred fantasy order: Iglesias, Lorenzen, Storen. WHAT IT MEANS These aren’t the only bullpens to have slightly blurry closer situations, but they serve as examples of how teams are thinking differently.
More managers are concluding that the last three outs of the game might not be the most difficult or important ones. And that can mean the best pitchers in the bullpen might not be the ones to always get the save opportunities.
A greater emphasis on highleverage situations validates what many sabermetricians have been advocating for some time, but it can also be frustrating for fantasy owners tied to the save stat.
The result is that it’s harder to find roster space for every reliever who could end up getting saves. As saves are distributed more widely, lockdown closers such as Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Craig Kimbrel and perhaps this season’s biggest surprise, Greg Holland, have become even more valuable.