RUNNING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
As we slice and dice early returns from the 2017 season, we typically hone in on individual player skills — contact rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, fly-ball/groundball, and hard-hit ball rates — as logical starting points.
It makes sense, as these skills are most within a hitter’s control, but team-level trends also can be an important — and often overlooked — factor when evaluating a hitter’s future potential.
Changes in a team’s approach on the basepaths can have significant fantasy impact. Clubs with an aggressive running game can provide a major boost to individual stolen base (SB) totals, while others with a more conservative approach often squash their players’ SB potential. So we’ll play a little game of Red
Light, Green Light this week; looking at which teams have shown the biggest swings — positive or negative — in stolen base attempts (SBA) vs. 2016, and what that means for certain players going forward (all statistics through Sunday).
GREEN LIGHT
Seattle Mariners (24th in SB attempts in 2016 / 5th in 2017)
Seattle owns one of the largest team-wide jumps in SBA from last season. The beneficiary? Outfield newcomer Jarrod Dyson, who’s tied for the AL lead in steals (10). Dyson is hitting .220, but a meager .245 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) compared with his career .308 mark hints that the batting average should improve. He’s playing every day and running often, which makes Dyson a legit 40-plus SB threat.
Jean Segura is off to a torrid start, hitting .371 with five SB through 116 at-bats despite missing two weeks (hamstring strain). Segura’s power stroke hasn’t followed him from Arizona to the Pacific Northwest — he’s a long shot to repeat 20 homers from 2016 — but Seattle’s run-heavy approach makes him a decent bet to flirt with 30 steals again. Segura’s getting plenty of chances to run atop Seattle’s lineup.
Deep leagues: Yes, he was designated for assignment by Seattle in April, but keep an eye on Leonys
Martin in AL-only leagues. Martin swiped four bases before his demotion to Class AAA Tacoma (Wash.), but a .154 BABIP torpedoed his early batting average. Martin has posted better numbers in the past, including 67 SB from 2013-14, so track him as a cheap speed source should he return to Seattle this summer.
New York Yankees (22nd/9th)
Jacoby Ellsbury leads the run-happy Yankees with eight steals. At 33, Ellsbury no longer possesses the elite wheels that carried him to 70 steals in 2009, but his .358 on-base percentage (OBP) through 104 at-bats is backed by an improved batting eye (13 walks, 18 strikeouts). Fellow outfielder Brett Gard
ner is getting on base regularly with a .289 batting average and excellent 12% walk rate. Health remains an issue for Ellsbury and Gardner, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see both push toward 30 steals over a full season, given manager Joe Girardi’s aggressive approach. Deep leagues: Aaron Hicks has an impressive slash line of .317/.457/.585 (batting average/ on-base percentage/slugging percentage) through 82 at-bats with six stolen bases. A post-hype prospect at this point, Hicks once swiped 13 bags in a half-season of playing time with the Minnesota Twins in 2013.
Hicks entered 2017 as the Yankees’ fourth outfielder in a leftymashing role, but continued success — or an injury to Ellsbury or Gardner — could put Hicks in line for a career year with plenty of steals to boot. Arizona Diamondbacks (4th/1st)
Moving up three spots in the SBA rankings isn’t that dramatic, but the D’backs lead the majors in stolen base attempts. They haven’t slowed down under new manager Torey Lovullo.
It has been great news for Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, who have nine and 11 steals, respectively. Both players have put up first-round numbers in the past, and their green lights on the basepaths point to more fivecategory production again in 2017. Deep leagues: Chris Owings swiped a career-high 21 bases in 2016, and he’s well on his way to breaking that with eight so far. His success on the basepaths — Owings has been caught twice — will keep the green light running. Owings’ early power surge (five HR) and .311 batting average likely won’t hold all year, but a 30-steal breakout wouldn’t be a surprise. Texas Rangers (11th/2nd)
Texas leads the AL in steals (34), thanks in large part to Elvis Andrus (seven). Andrus has paired the surge with a .289 batting average through 149 at-bats. He’s well on track for a ninth consecutive season of 20-plus steals and could easily push 30 with a continued green light. Deep leagues: Delino De-
Shields has received regular playing time in May, and while he’s only hitting .256, DeShields’ patient plate approach (9% walk rate) has led to a reasonable .322 OBP. He has snagged seven bags in 78 at-bats — Texas’ loose leash on the basepaths makes DeShields a cheap source of steals.
RED LIGHT
Colorado Rockies (18th/28th)
Colorado fans aren’t complaining about their team’s 23-15 start, but fantasy owners have a bone to pick with manager Bud Black. Ten individual players have more stolen bases than the entire Rockies team — they rank last in the majors with nine steals.
Charlie Blackmon racked up 88 SB from 2014-16 atop Colorado’s lineup, but he checks in with two steals through six weeks. Blackmon’s making an impact in other ways (.310 batting average, eight home runs), but owners will have a hard time breaking even on Blackmon’s top-20 draft day cost if he doesn’t get a green light soon.
DJ LeMahieu won the 2016 NL batting title, and though he owns plus speed, he has attempted four steals all season. Owners hoping for an SB boost to pair with the plus batting average in 2017 likely will be disappointed. Newcomer Ian Desmond’s season just started after he missed April with a broken hand, but the odds of a sixth 20-steal season in seven years seem slim, given the team’s stagnant running game. Cleveland Indians (5th/20th)
One of the most active running teams in 2016, Cleveland has fallen further than any other club in stolen base attempts. Hit hardest by the change? Francisco Lindor (19 SB in 2016) and Jose
Ramirez (22), who have combined to steal four bags.
Lindor and Ramirez are finding other ways to provide fantasy value — Lindor is on a career-high home run pace (eight in 142 atbats), while Ramirez is hitting a cool .280 with six homers —but owners who drafted the infielders might need to look elsewhere for steals should Cleveland’s conservative approach persist.