April stats can’t predict rest of season
Luck can often skew numbers pitchers put up
Every season has its ebbs and flows. In our haste for instant results, we sometimes put too much stock into April stats, which can often be misleading.
Here are six pitchers whose April surface statistics warrant closer looks, and as you will see, things are not always as good — or as bad — as they seem.
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers
April: 5.34 ERA, 1.54 WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched)
May-June: 2.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Nelson entered 2017 well off the radar in most fantasy leagues, and a rough April only further cemented that status. But the 28-year-old has made substantial changes to his pitch mix. The most striking adjustments since last season have come against left-handed batters, to whom he has thrown 14% more four-seam fastballs and 20% fewer sinkers, while incorporating a new split-change to his arsenal.
He also has showcased a vastly improved knuckle-curve. These modifications, along with a heightened focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone, have paid huge dividends. Nelson’s strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) has never been better, going from a subpar 2.0 K/BB lifetime to a stellar 4.2 K/BB in 2017. He has made major strides against left-handed hitters, who had touched him up for a .813 on-base-plus-slugging-percentage (OPS) before 2017. This season, he has limited them to a .648 OPS.
While it’s unlikely Nelson will continue to perform at quite the level he has of late, he has reinvented himself as a pitcher and could be taking a big step forward.
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros April: 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP May-June: 1.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
McCullers’ 2016 season ended the same way it began — with him on the disabled list because of arm ailments (shoulder, elbow). When active, he flashed dominant stuff over 81 innings, as evidenced by 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), but he was plagued by an unsightly 5.0 walks per nine (BB/9).
The 23-year-old displayed improved command in April but was undone by an unfavorable .343 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and an inordinate number of home runs. He has since benefited from regression in those areas and some serendipitous breaks when it comes to stranding baserunners, leading to artificially shiny ratios.
But the elite strikeout rate (10.4 K/9), enhanced control (2.7 BB/9) and ability to induce boatloads of ground balls have been constant throughout. That gives reason to believe McCullers could be well on his way toward ascending to ace status, provided his health cooperates. A mechanical tweak aimed at lessening stress on his arm was implemented this spring, but he went on the disabled list this week after tweaking his lower back. The Astros are likely to monitor his workload, however, so plan accordingly.
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants April: 6.32 ERA, 1.34 WHIP May-June: 3.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
Samardzija has modified his pitch mix in 2017, throwing his best swing-and-miss offerings — slider, splitter and curve — more often, and it has resulted in a career-best 10.5 K/9. The 32-yearold also has done an excellent job of throwing strikes and avoiding free passes (1.3 BB/9). Samardzija was tormented by home runs and significant misfortune with men on base during April, but that has normalized. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of his home park, keeping the ball in the yard shouldn’t be a chief concern. Samardzija could be a major force over the rest of the season.
Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics April: 5.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP May-June: 2.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
On the heels of a fine rookie campaign, Manaea was featured on many breakout lists heading into 2017. He got off to a bad start, primarily because of uncharacteristically poor control (4.4 BB/9 in April) and terrible luck stranding runners. But the 25-year-old has bounced back after a brief stint on the disabled list with a shoulder strain, as he has been much stingi- er with free passes, issuing only 2.9 BB/9 since then. Meanwhile, his 9.7 K/9 rate has been consistent, sparked by increased usage of his terrific slider.
Though Manaea has been aided by a fortuitous .240 BABIP that is ripe for regression, there is a lot to like with this skill set. Health permitting, he looks to be on track for a tremendous season.
Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies April: 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP May-June: 6.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP
Buoyed by an extremely favorable .196 BABIP, Hellickson enjoyed a marvelous April. Meanwhile, there were troubling signs beneath the surface, most notably a miniscule 3.3 K/9 rate.
Things have gotten ugly over the 30-year-old’s last eight starts, as his control has worsened (3.6 BB/9 compared to 0.9 BB/9 in April), his BABIP regressed a bit and batters slugged 12 home runs against him (vs. two in April).
Armed with a pedestrian 90mph fastball, Hellickson has long relied on an outstanding changeup. The pitch hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2017, garnering not only fewer whiffs but also far more hard contact and seven of his 12 home runs allowed.
Unless Hellickson can demonstrate a greater capacity to miss bats while curbing the walks, the prognosis looks rather bleak.
Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins April: 0.77 ERA, 0.66 WHIP May-June: 3.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Santana’s eye-catching opening month was driven by an incredibly fortunate .129 BABIP and an uncanny knack for preventing baserunners from crossing the plate. While the 34-year-old’s ERA and WHIP have remained in good shape, he continues to benefit from a healthy dose of good fortune, as his BABIP is .168.
Santana’s overall underlying skills, including a 3.3 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9, have been subpar. His luck figures to sour, and when it does, his ERA and WHIP will rise.
This is a pitcher much more likely to post a near-4.00 ERA than anything remotely resembling his current mark.