Stretch run targets for stolen bases
With less than one-third of the season remaining, it’s a good time to take a close look at the categories in your leagues and figure out the most likely places points can be gained or lost.
Digging out of a hole in ratio categories such as ERA and WHIP can be extremely difficult, but gaining ground in some of the others can be an easier task.
One category an astute owner can often attack is stolen bases. This can be done by trading with an owner with excess speed or by finding a player on the waiver wire. Here, we’ll take a look at several players available in a high percentage of leagues with the potential to make an impact on the basepaths down the stretch (statistics through Sunday).
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Cameron Maybin of the Los Angeles Angels has missed the last few weeks with a knee sprain but still ranks fifth in the majors in steals with 25. He’s ready to come off the disabled list and should resume his role as the everyday left fielder and leadoff man for a team that ranks first in both stolen bases and attempts.
Maybin was dropped in a lot of leagues while he was out, creating an opportunity for owners chasing steals and/or runs over the final weeks. There probably won’t be anyone else available the rest of the season who offers as much stolen-base upside.
of the Houston Astros has punished minor league pitching, batting .318 with 21 home runs and 16 steals in 384 plate appearances. His first stint with the big-league club in June was a brief one, but it appears he’s here to stay this time, as the team parted ways with outfielder Norichika Aoki at the trade deadline.
Fisher has been a fixture in the lineup the past couple of weeks, settling in as the leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching, at least while George Springer and Carlos Correa are sidelined. He’s not the most efficient basestealer (only 18-for-30 between Class AAA and the majors), and his propensity for striking out could lead to a lower batting average than his current .258 mark. But he’s a good bet to contribute at least another handful of steals, along with plenty of other counting stats as part of the highest scoring offense in the majors.
of the Tampa Bay Rays got an opportunity to start when Kevin Kiermaier hit the disabled list in early June with a broken hip. He has taken advantage by batting .287 with 13 steals since his recall, giving him 16 stolen bases on the year.
Smith is available in many leagues, and Kiermaier’s rehab has been stalled by back pain, which assures Smith of regular playing time in the short term and perhaps even the rest of the season. His batting average will likely slip, as he has been helped by a 37% hit rate on balls in play (league average is around 30%). Smith could easily provide another dozen or more steals, though, which would give him plenty of value in all formats.
of the Chicago White Sox was putting up strong numbers across the board, including seven home runs and eight steals, when he went down with a sprained finger in midJune. A six-week absence put him on the waiver wire in many leagues, but he was activated from the disabled list July 30 and appears to be locked into an everyday role again.
Garcia can’t be counted on to maintain his current home run pace, but his speed is legitimate, as shown by the 20 steals he had across 392 plate appearances in 2016, mostly at the Class AAA level. Garcia has two steals since returning and could swipe double digit bases the rest of the way while also contributing a solid batting average and a little pop.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
A two-month slump led to a demotion for of the Milwaukee Brewers shortly after the All-Star break, but after a successful seven-game stint in the minors, he’s back and playing regularly. His elite power/speed combo is undeniable, as he has amassed 14 home runs and 19 steals in 311 at-bats on the year.
Broxton has struck out eight times in 22 plate appearances since returning to the Brewers and has struck out in 38% of his plate appearances this year, the highest mark in the NL. He will continue to be a batting average drag for his owners, but if you can absorb the hit in that category, he makes for an excellent target who can help out in a variety of other ways.
of the Atlanta Braves completed his quick ascension through the minors, earning a promotion to the majors at the beginning of the month. In 448 plate appearances at Class AAA Gwinnett (Ga.) this year, Albies, 20, hit .285/.330/.440 (batting average/on-base-percentage/ slugging), chipping in 21 steals and a career-high nine home runs.
Albies swiped 30 bags in 2016, so the speed he’s showing comes as no surprise. He has hit in the eighth spot in the order, directly in front of the pitcher, in each of his last four starts, which could cut into his stolen-base potential. Albies still stands a strong chance of providing at least a handful of steals through the end of the season, and a move up in the order could lead to double-digit stolen bases.
of the Arizona Diamondbacks had three 20-steal seasons in the minors and stole 19 bases across 713 major league plate appearances in 2015-16 with the Seattle Mariners. Acquired in an offseason trade, Marte spent most of the first half of this season at Class AAA, where he hit .338 with six home runs and seven steals. Multiple injuries in the Arizona infield have led to an opportunity for him to seize some playing time.
Marte should be able to provide value with a solid batting average and good speed, but a 27% hit rate has kept his average down to .257, and he was caught on his lone stolen-base attempt. Surprisingly, he has already belted four home runs in 70 at-bats after hitting a total of three in the majors before this season. The power gains are unlikely to stick, but with both Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed looking at extended absences, Marte has a chance to make a sustained impact, making him worth adding in deeper leagues.
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