Baseball fantasy advice:
Impact could depend on teams’ fates
Potential valuable players can be plucked from the disabled list.
There’s risk in going after late-season call-ups, Page 9
Minor leaguer Brent Honeywell thriving with screwball, Page 11
Division notes, Pages 22-27
Stats, box scores, Pages 28-39
One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball drafts is to look for value in players recovering from injuries.
As long as there’s a reasonable time frame for his return, it’s much easier to replace an injured player at the start of the season than it is later on because the player pool is so deep. And having an open roster spot gives fantasy owners an extra opportunity to uncover a potential breakout.
Unfortunately, the injury bug seems to have been much busier than normal this season, to the point where the ability to overcome injuries might be a fantasy owner’s most important skill.
Fourteen of this season’s top 25 players (ranked by average draft position in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship) have spent time on the DL.
That includes the No. 1 overall player — Mike Trout — as well as offensive stalwarts Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, Miguel Cabrera and Freddie Freeman.
The pitching losses have been even worse, with each of this season’s top five — Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and Corey Kluber — going on the DL at some point.
With that kind of injury rate, it’s hard to find a fantasy team that hasn’t had to work around the loss of at least one key player.
Now that we’re into the stretch run, it’s almost impossible to find an impact player on the waiver wire. The best hope for a final championship push very well could come from injured players returning from the disabled list.
IMMEDIATE RETURNEES
In the past week, Matt Kemp (hamstring) and Stephen Strasburg (elbow) rejoined their teams after missing roughly a month.
Pitchers Robbie Ray (concussion) and Masahiro Tanaka (shoulder), oufielder Michael Brantley (ankle) and catcher Salvador Perez (side) are expected back this week. Fantasy owners will welcome them back as regular contributors.
However, some of the best players currently on the shelf play for teams that have all but locked up spots in the postseason. It’s a testament to the dominance the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals have shown all season that they could be so far ahead in their divisions despite injuries to many key players.
Kershaw (15-2, 2.04 ERA) is the game’s best pitcher when healthy, but he’s been out for a month with a back injury, a condition that also sent him to the DL last season.
The Dodgers will be especially careful with their ace once he returns to action. Last season, Kershaw made five starts in September, pitching three innings in his first outing and gradually increasing his workload.
It’s a fine plan to get him ready for the postseason, but not such a good one for fantasy owners looking for ace-like stats to propel them to a league title. He ended up pitching a total of 28 innings over the final month of the 2016 season, going 1-2 with a 1.29 ERA and 27 strikeouts. However, 46 other pitchers struck out more batters in September.
The bottom line with Kershaw, as well as new teammate Yu Darvish, who’s also due to come off the DL very soon, is the Dodgers won’t push them very far with their postseason berth all but sealed. The same can be said for the Nationals, who are comfortably ahead in their bid for homefield advantage in the first round and unlikely to catch the Dodgers for the best record.
The Nationals just lost ace Max Scherzer to a neck injury, but he’s expected to return this week after missing one start. The most important health questions in Washington are with outfielder Harper and shortstop Turner.
Both are expected back for the playoffs, but it’s hard to say how much they’ll play over the sea- son’s final month. Harper is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee, while Turner’s broken wrist has healed to the point where he’s ready for a rehab assignment. He’s eligible to be reinstated from the 60-day DL on Aug. 29.
DL POWER RANKINGS
Based on the expected quality of performance, as well as expected playing time, here are some of the top players on the disabled list that fantasy owners will be counting on down the stretch.
1. SS Turner, Nationals: Just a few stolen bases can greatly impact the standings in many fantasy leagues. Turner has that elite ability (35 steals in 68 games), and his wrist won’t slow him down on the basepaths.
2. SP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners: A second DL stint this season (this time with a pectoral injury) seems to be nearing an end. Paxton has been a revelation with a 2.78 ERA and 138 strikeouts in 119 2⁄3 innings (10.4 K/9). With the Mariners in the thick of the wild-card race, they’ll need Paxton to be their ace. 3. SS Carlos Correa, Hous - ton Astros: He’s working his way back from a torn ligament in his thumb but is still a ways away from a minor league rehab assignment. The injury still could impact his hitting, even after he returns to action. The only way to know for sure is by giving him at-bats before the postseason starts.
4. SP Kershaw, Dodgers: Last September’s plan had Kershaw in good enough shape to pitch on short rest during the postseason. Look for something similar with great results in limited innings.
5. SP Lance McCullers, Astros: He has the strikeout rate to be an impact starter, but like Kershaw and the Dodgers, a back injury and a comfortable division lead will make the Astros err on the side of caution.
6. SP Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs: Shoulder fatigue isn’t a good sign this late in the season. The Cubs are hoping some rest will help, but they’ll need the left-hander back at full strength if they’re going to hold off challengers in the NL Central.
7. C Willson Contreras, Cubs: He’s been hot in the second half, leading catchers in just about every offensive category, but hamstring injuries are notoriously slow to heal. Salvador Perez and Brian McCann likely will be more valuable going forward.
8. OF Harper, Nationals: He might have been NL MVP frontrunner when he went down in a scary heap after slipping on a wet first base. The injury could have been a lot worse, but expect the Nats to take it easy with their franchise player. He won’t need much time to get ready for the playoffs.
9/10. Matt Harvey and Syndergaard, New York Mets: Harvey is out on a rehab assignment and figures to be back in the rotation first, but his 5.25 ERA and reduced strikeout rate don’t give fantasy owners much hope. Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since April 30 because of a lat strain, and with the Mets out of contention, there’s little reason to bring him back.