Betcha Didn’t Know:
Huge contract doesn’t mean QB will win
Marc Lawrence offers key trends to watch for wagering on Week 1 NFL games.
The Detroit Lions showed Matthew Stafford the money when they signed the quarterback to the biggest contract in NFL history last week.
The $135 million extension works out to $27 million annually.
It’s the feeling of former NFL coach and current analyst Jon Gruden that the Lions were backed into a corner. “Are you going to pay him or are you going to go with (Jake) Ruddock … or (Brad) Kaaya?”
According to my well-oiled database, Stafford stands 51-61 SU (straight up) and 45-64-3 ATS (against the spread) as a starter during his NFL career (including the playoffs). Inside those numbers, he is 19-36 SU and 21-33-1 ATS in away games.
Stafford has particularly struggled against opponents with winning records, going 16-39 SU and 18-34-3 ATS.
Worse, he is 6-26 SU and 822-2 ATS from Game 8 out vs. winning foes. And he has been favored five times by more than three points against teams with winning records. The Lions lost all five games.
In his defense, Stafford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft, took over a 0-16 team and has led the Lions to three playoff appearances in his eight seasons. He is still looking for his first playoff victory.
Let’s take a look inside the numbers at the games for the NFL’s opening week. THURSDAY, SEPT. 7
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 15-11 SU and 17-9 ATS away during September, with only three losses by more than seven points. ... The Patriots have won seven consecutive Thursday games.
Key stat: Kansas City is 7-0 SU and ATS under Reid in regularseason games against AFC East opponents.
Who wins: Patriots, 24-21
SUNDAY, SEPT. 10
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
New York is 18-7-1 ATS as a division road underdog since 2005. ... Buffalo is 3-5 SU and ATS in its last eight home games in this series.
Key stat: Jets QB Josh McCown is 2-20 SU in his last 22 starts dating to 2014.
Who wins: Buffalo, 23-20 Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
The Falcons are 5-18 SU and 8-15 ATS in road opening games against non-division opponents. … Chicago is 23-10 SU in home openers since 1984, with three losses by seven or more points.
Key stat: Super Bowl-losing teams from the previous year are 2-15 SU and ATS away in seasonopening games since 1985.
Who wins: Chicago, 24-23 Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
The Jaguars are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine road opening games. … Houston is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in its 11 division games.
Key stat: The Texans are 19-2 SU and 15-5-1 ATS as favorites under coach Bill O’Brien.
Who wins: Houston, 27-16 Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
After a 3-0 SU and ATS start behind rookie QB Carson Wentz last season, the Eagles concluded the season going 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS. … Washington is 0-9 SU and ATS as a favorite in division openers since 1999.
Key stat: The Redskins are 6-0 SU and ATS in this series under coach Jay Gruden.
Who wins: Washington, 31-24 Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
The Cardinals are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this series. … Detroit suffered its third consecutive sub-90-yard season on the ground last year when it averaged 21.9 rushing attempts per game — tied for fewest in the league.
Key stat: The Lions are 5-19 SU and 6-16-2 ATS against the NFC West since 2006.
Who wins: Arizona, 24-17 Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Oakland went 7-3 SU away from home last season while managing to outgain only two foes in those contests. … Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey is 14-34 SU in his last 48 games as an NFL head coach, dating to his days with Buffalo.
Key stat: The favorite is 8-1 ATS in this series.
Who wins: Tennessee, 24-16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins
After their last two winning seasons, the Bucs went 3-13 and 4-12 the following years, respectively. … This will be Miami’s only home game until Oct. 8.
Key stat: The Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in this series, including 0-5 the last five games.
Who wins: Tampa Bay, 27-23 Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
After wining the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Joe Flacco’s passer rating ranks 21st, behind players such as Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Fitzpatrick. … The Bengals are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home in division game in September since 2006.
Key stat: Half of the Ravens’ road wins over the last two years have been at Cleveland.
Who wins: Cincinnati, 28-17 Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 20-2 SU in his career against the Browns. … DeShone Kizer becomes Cleveland’s 27th starting quarterback since 1999.
Key stat: NFL home underdogs of eight or more points are 36-18 ATS since 2007.
Who wins: Pittsburgh, 24-20 Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
The Colts are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in season-opening games over the last nine years. … The Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three season-opening home games as the Los Angeles Rams (1992-94).
Key stat: First-year NFC coaches are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in home openers against AFC opponents since 2002.
Who wins: Rams, 27-20 Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Russell Wilson is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. ... Green Bay is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home its last 10 home openers.
Key stat: Pete Carroll is 14-1 ATS as an underdog when avenging a loss from a previous meeting. Who wins: Seattle, 24-21 Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers The Panthers’ regression to 6-10 in 2016 from their 17-2 Super Bowl season in 2015 was the largest regression in NFL history for a 10-win team. ... 49ers QB Brian Hoyer was 10-6 SU and 10-5-1 ATS as a starter under Kyle Shanahan in Cleveland on teams that went 11-21.
Key stat: There have been 11 losing Super Bowl teams that failed to make the playoffs the following season. Eight of those 11 rebounded to make it back to the playoffs the next season.
Who wins: Carolina, 27-20 New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Giants QB Eli Manning was 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in season-opening away games vs. division opponents until he beat Dallas 20-19 on the road last season. … The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in home openers the last nine years.
Key stat: Dallas coach Jason Garrett is 12-27 ATS as a home favorite in his NFL career, including 4-11 in division games.
Who wins: Giants, 31-30 MONDAY, SEPT. 11 New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
Saints QB Drew Brees is 12-5 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in his last 17 starts against NFC North opponents, including 5-0 ATS the last five away. … Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is 28-7 ATS in non-division games.
Key stat: Minnesota is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine Monday night games.
Who wins: New Orleans, 34-31 Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Chargers QB Philip Rivers is 12-3-1 ATS as a road underdog in division games. … NFL Monday night favorites are 15-34 ATS in Game 1 of the season since 1980, including 9-29 ATS when favored by six or fewer points.
Key stat: Of the seven starting quarterbacks this week who are 35 or older, only Rivers owns a winning career record in seasonopening games (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS).
Who wins: Chargers, 28-27
Lawrence publishes the “Playbook Football Preview Guide” magazine and the weekly online Playbook Football Newsletter (Playbook.com). You can follow him on the Playbook Cube app (PlaybookCube.com).