MLB fantasy:
Rays’ Ramos, Jays’ Smoak return value
Looking ahead to 2018: Who are the firstrounders and keepers? uMLB team-by-team notes, Pages 32-37 uMinor leagues, Page 38 uMLB stats and box scores, Pages 39-51
Unless your fantasy baseball team is involved in a tense, downto-the-wire finish, you’re probably not obsessively checking live box scores anymore.
Even so, it’s never too early to begin preparing for a successful 2018 season. For those in keeper leagues, it’s worth examining your current roster to identify players who could be next year’s building blocks.
The best ones are players who’ve significantly outperformed their draft-day costs. But just because a player looks like a great value right now doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll lead you to a championship next year. We’re looking for players who have definite roles in 2018, and the skills to take their games to the next level.
CATCHER
Wilson Ramos, Tampa Bay Rays; Tyler Flowers, Atlanta Braves
Solid values at a position where the first rule is “do no harm.”
Ramos spent the first three months of the regular season completing his recovery from major knee surgery. Although he hasn’t put up stellar numbers so far with the Rays (.238, seven homers, 21 RBI in 52 games), Ramos was an All-Star who hit .307 with 22 homers in 2016 with the Washington Nationals. If you held onto him this long, you could have a No. 1 catcher next season.
Despite sharing time behind the plate, Flowers gets the NL nod — hitting .283 with 11 homers and a career-high .445 slugging percentage. Platoon partner Kurt Suzuki is a free agent this winter, so Flowers figures to be a fulltime starter next season.
FIRST BASE
Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays; Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
Given a chance to play every day in Toronto, Smoak surpassed his career high of 20 home runs by the All-Star break. And he’s continued his torrid pace. Even more impressive, he’s cut down on his strikeouts and is hitting for average (.278) as well as power (37 homers).
Bellinger is almost a lock to be the NL rookie of the year after getting the call to the majors in late April and blasting 36 homers. With Adrian Gonzalez a fixture at first base, fantasy owners had no idea on draft day when Bellinger would get the call — or how long he’d stay after he was promoted. But his bat and his ability to play in the outfield solidified his place in the heart of the Dodgers lineup.
Legit prospects with first base as their primary position are fairly rare in the minors, but Matt Olson of the Oakland A’s and Rhys Hoskins of the Philadelphia Phillies are two more who’ve already experienced success in the majors.
With six homers in September, Olson trails only J.D. Martinez this month. Meanwhile, Hoskins’ 14 home runs are more than anyone has ever hit in his first 30 games in the majors.
SECOND BASE
Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles; Scooter Gennett, Cincinnati Reds
Schoop has had a breakout season few fantasy owners saw coming. Yes, he did hit for power last year but it came with a sub.300 on-base percentage. This year, he’s taken a major step forward, hitting .305 with 31 homers and 103 RBI.
The AL has another strong keeper candidate in Whit Merrifield of the Kansas City Royals, who emerged from a group of candidates this spring to be a power (17 homers) and speed (28 steals) threat.
At 27, Gennett has discovered his power stroke, hitting 24 homers and driving in 85 runs despite not having a regular lineup spot. Still arbitration-eligible, he should be a regular in 2018 with Jose Peraza likely moving to shortstop. Andrelton Simmons, Los Angeles Angels; Amed Rosario, New York Mets
Simmons teased fantasy owners by hitting 17 home runs four years ago in Atlanta and never coming close to that again. Until this season.
Always an elite defender, Simmons’ bat (.281, 14 HR, 64 RBI) has turned him into a fringe MVP candidate. He’s not quite as powerful as the New York Yankees’ Didi Gregorius (another decent keeper), but Simmons cost next to nothing on draft day.
The Mets waited as long as they could before promoting Rosario, 21, to the majors at the beginning of August. An advanced hitter for his age in the minors, he posted a .328 batting average, .367 on-base percentage and .466 slugging percentage at Class AAA.
Rosario will need to improve his plate discipline (two walks in his first 114 MLB plate appearances), but his upside is tantalizing.
THIRD BASE
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox; Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers
Devers was another late-season call-up. The 20-year-old hit .364 with eight homers in his first 20 games, but hasn’t gone deep since Aug. 19. Still, there’s plenty of evidence he could be Boston’s third baseman for the next decade.
Shaw came to the Brewers in an offseason trade with no guarantee of regular playing time, despite posting solid numbers last year in Boston. Shaw blossomed at age 27. With 29 homers and 90 RBI, he has a shot at a 30-100 season.
OUTFIELD
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves; Domingo Santana, Milwaukee Brewers
Despite a second-half slump that has some fantasy owners worried, Judge has power that no one outside of Giancarlo Stanton can match. Two homers Sept. 10 (Nos. 40 and 41) should help ease the concern.
Inciarte has become one of the game’s best leadoff hitters. An interesting stat from a Sept. 10 TV broadcast: Over the past 162 games, he ranks second in the NL in hits and sixth in runs scored. With 11 homers, a .300 average and 21 steals, Inciarte was a steal for fantasy owners in 2017.
Santana has made strides across the board this season while securing an everyday role. With 24 homers, 77 runs and 12 steals, he’s even more valuable in leagues that count on-base percentage.
Other excellent keeper candidates: Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians; Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners; Tommy Pham, St. Louis Cardinals.
STARTING PITCHERS
Luis Severino, New York Yankees; Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins; Alex Wood. Los Angeles Dodgers; Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers
All four had average draft positions in triple digits entering the 2017 season, yet all could finish among the top 30 in fantasy value.
For Severino and Wood, the key was finding a spot in their teams’ rotations. Strong early performances led to All-Star berths and they’ve continued to pitch well into the second half.
They’re among 10 pitchers with 120 or more innings and an ERA below 3.00. Severino also ranks fourth in the AL with 211 strikeouts.
Berrios and Nelson have had their share of struggles, but managed to put everything together this season. Nelson is out for the year with a rotator cuff strain, but he was injured on the basepaths, not on the mound. He’s expected to be fully recovered for spring training.
Also keep an eye on: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles; James Paxton, Seattle Mariners; Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks; Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers; Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds.
CLOSER
Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers; Felipe Rivero, Pittsburgh Pirates
Unless you count Shane Greene in Detroit, there aren’t really any great values at closer in the AL. In the NL, Knebel and Rivero are elite strikeout pitchers with the Brewers closer trailing only Craig Kimbrel in strikeouts per nine innings. (Knebel has a 15.2 K/9 to Kimbrel’s 16.8). Rivero took over the job in midseason and has converted 18 of 19 save chances with a 10.8 K/9 rate.
FOLLOW FANTASY EDITOR STEVE GARDNER