Who belongs in 2018’s first round?
Oh, those breakout seasons. We know they’re coming; we just don’t know where they’ll come from on draft day. Hitting on a few can fast-track you to a fantasy crown, and they inevitably inject new names into the first-round conversation the following year.
This week, we’ll take an early look at the new faces battling to be first-round selections in 2018, and most importantly, identify the ones you should target with that precious anchor pick.
At BaseballHQ.com, we’re looking to minimize risk in the first round by targeting players with three key traits: a multiyear track record of success, strong underlying skills to support it, and a history of staying healthy.
We’ll need to be picky, as there won’t be much room for newbies. In the 15-team, 5x5 mixed league format — which we’ll use to define our “first round” — 2017’s class performed admirably, as 12 of the top 15 picks from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) have earned at least $20 this season, and seven have earned more than $30.
We were a Madison Bumgarner dirt bike accident (15th overall pick; $3 in 5x5 value) and a Josh Donaldson calf injury (12th, $7) away from having no true “busts” in the first round.
There have been mild disappointments — Mookie Betts (third; $23), Trea Turner (10th; $19), Kris Bryant (fifth, $20) — but they’ve been good enough to remain in the conversation. We’ll consider them our “benchmarks” in this exercise.
So with that in mind, let’s separate the first-round performances from the first-round players for 2018 (all statistics through Sunday’s games):
of the Colorado Rockies was on the cusp of the first round entering the season, and there’s no doubt he’ll carry a first-round price tag in 2018. Blackmon’s posted the most fantasy value of any hitter in 2017, as he leads the NL in batting average (.339) and runs scored (128), while ranking fourth in home runs (34). Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton reacts after hitting against the Braves on Sept. 9.
First-round player? It’s tough to be any more consistent. Over the last four seasons, he’s hitting .309 with an average of 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases and just one trip to the disabled list in that span. Forget first round; the case can be made for Blackmon as a top-five overall pick next season.
of the Cincinnati Reds is riding the league-wide power wave with 34 home runs —his most since 2010 — while also hitting .313. A top-25 pick entering 2017, Votto has now hit at least 29 home runs with a .310 batting average and .430 on-base percentage in each of his last three seasons.
First-round player? Yes. Votto’s made two positive shifts to his game: he’s making more contact and he’s hitting the ball in the air (career 33% fly ball rate; 38% in 2017). With three consecutive $30 seasons, Votto is a fine building block in the first round, and he’s an easy top-five option in on-base
percentage formats.
On the heels of a breakout season in 2016, the Cleveland Indians’ has pushed the envelope even further. He’s one of three second or third base-eligible players with at least 25 home runs and a .300 batting average (the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and Baltimore Orioles’ Jonathan Schoop are the others). Ramirez, who will qualify at both positions in 2018, has also chipped in 15 steals.
First-round player? Ramirez has the elite plate skills needed to be a perennial .300 hitter. We’re a bit skeptical of the power outburst — even in today’s home run-friendly environment — given Ramirez’s previous career-high of 11. The tight real estate might prevent Ramirez from sneaking into the first round, but his well-rounded skill set makes for a fine choice in Round 2. of the Miami Marlins is mashing his way
up the single-season home run list with 54. He’s paired that with a .281 batting average, 113 RBI, and 111 runs scored. Stanton’s monster season cements a first-round price tag entering 2018.
First-round player? Stanton’s raw power is superhuman — nothing earth-shattering there — but he’s also cut down on the strikeouts this season. There’s a good amount of risk with Stanton, however, as he’s been a $30 player in just one other season (2014) in his eight-year career. Stanton will be a first-round pick, but we’d like to see him hold the contact gains — and stay healthy — for another season before giving him our full backing.
of the New York Yankees was having a rookie season for the ages with 30 home runs through the All-Star break, but the Giancarlo Stanton of the first half has slumped badly since then (.191 batting average, 11 home runs in 183 second-half at-bats). Despite the summer swoon, Judge may still get some first-round push in 2018.
First-round player? Not unless your league counts walks. Judge has major issues making contact, as he leads MLB with 188 strikeouts. Judge’s swing-and-miss tendencies open him up to the batting average risk we’re seeing play out down the stretch. He has easy 40-plus home run power, but the holes in Judge’s swing suggest the all-around production will fall short of first-round expectations.
The most productive fantasy shortstop of 2017? Try the Texas Rangers’ who’s already put up a 20 home run/20 stolen base season with a .306 batting average. Andrus was drafted outside the top 150, and there’s no doubt his stock will rise next spring after this $30+ performance.
First-round player? Andrus has long provided consistent stolen base totals, while his contactoriented approach has led to two straight .300 seasons. The power has been a surprise — Andrus had never hit 10 home runs in a season — but he doesn’t hit many fly balls and his hard-hit rate (30%) remains below league average. This might just be a case of a good player having a great year. Don’t pay for a repeat.
Open to taking a pitcher in the first round? You’ll have two new options in of the Indians and of the Boston Red Sox. Each starter has a convincing argument for the AL Cy Young — Sale leads the league in strikeouts (278), while Kluber barely edges him out in ERA (2.56) and WHIP (0.88). One thing we can’t argue: both will be among the first starting pitchers off the board in 2018.
First-round players? Know your league tendencies. If pitchers have traditionally gone in the first round (where did Max Scherzer and Bumgarner go last year?), then both Sale and Kluber fit the bill. Kluber’s posted a sub-3.50 ERA with 200+ strikeouts in four straight seasons, while Sale’s done it in five straight. Their elite skills and consistency make either one a fine choice to anchor your 2018 rotation.
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