Scouting the game,
USA TODAY special correspondent Arthur Arkush sizes up the Super Bowl LII matchup between the Patriots and Eagles.
When the Patriots run
The NFL’s 10th-ranked rushing offense clashes with the No. 1 rushing defense. Don’t expect New England to lean heavily on Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead as ballcarriers as much as pass catchers, a role in which each thrives. The trio combined for 43 yards on 13 carries vs. the Jaguars, one week after totaling 73 and 19, respectively, against Tennessee. For the Eagles, it starts up front with all-pro DT Fletcher Cox and LBs Mychal Kendricks and Nigel Bradham. Coordinator Jim Schwartz directs a fast, gap-shooting scheme in which defenders tackle well.
EDGE: Eagles
When the Patriots pass
Two weeks should be enough time for 2017 MVP and NFL passing yardage leader Tom
Brady’s much-ballyhooed injured right hand to no longer dominate the conversation. Instead, it’ll be the status of leading receiver, TE Rob Gronkow
ski, who departed in the second quarter vs. the Jaguars and entered the concussion protocol. In Gronk’s absence, slot WR
Danny Amendola’s two fourth-quarter touchdowns rallied the Pats. He’ll likely draw nickel Patrick Robinson, who started the Eagles’ scoring with a pick-six in the NFC title game, leaving Ronald Darby and Ja
len Mills on the boundaries vs. speedy Brandin Cooks (six catches for100 yards receiving) and Chris Hogan, who has been quiet in the playoffs. Schwartz’s pass-rush, led by Cox, Brandon
Graham and Chris Long, is reminiscent with its depth of the Giants’ formula in two Super Bowl upsets of the Patriots.
EDGE: Patriots
When the Eagles run
Coach Doug Pederson’s rushing offense has been effective and persistent, not necessarily efficient, with Jay Ajayi (33 carries, 127 yards rushing in the playoffs) seemingly locked into the early-down role, with ex-Patriot LeGarrette Blount the goal-line closer. The Eagles’ athletic O-line is playing well in the postseason, anchored by all-pros C Jason Kelce and RT
Lane Johnson. New England was 20th in run defense in the regular season (tied for 30th in yards per carry allowed). James
Harrison’s December signing has coincided with the Pats tightening up this postseason vs. power runners — Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette. LB Kyle Van Noy and SS Pat
rick Chung are also key box defenders for coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. EDGE: Patriots
When the Eagles pass
Nick Foles channeled his 2013 Pro Bowl form in a spectacular and unlikely performance vs. the Vikings after struggling mightily in his final two regularseason tuneups. Credit Foles and Pederson for rediscovering Philadelphia’s downfield passing penchant that essentially disappeared when Foles replaced Carson Wentz in December. The Eagles’ 1A and 1B — WR Alshon Jeffery and TE
Zach Ertz — showed up big vs. Minnesota, combining for 13 catches for 178 yards and two touchdowns. They create matchup problems with size, strength and speed. But the Patriots have two top cover men in
Stephon Gilmore, the $65 million man who sealed the AFC title game with his length and leaping ability on a fourth-down pass breakup, and Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler. Can
Trey Flowers and Harrison keep supplying the pressure for a pass rush that ignited in the second half Sunday and is up to 11 sacks in the playoffs after an inconsistent 2017? EDGE: Patriots
Special teams
Stephen Gostkowski is coming off a terrific 12th season and preparing to kick in his fifth Super Bowl and holds a profound edge in experience over strong-legged rookie Jake El
liott, who’s 4-for-4 on field goals this postseason. Coincidentally, both kicked at Memphis in college. The teams have historically strong third phases, though the Pats were a bit better this season, ranking in the top five on both coverage units and in field goal efficiency and boasting the dangerous return battery of Lewis and Amendola.
EDGE: Patriots Coaching Josh McDaniels (offense) and Patricia (defense) are get-
ting head coaching jobs with the Colts and Lions, respectively. Pederson’s staff has done a remarkable job weathering injuries to Wentz and perennial Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters and others, and it includes past (Schwartz) and future (QB coach John DeFilippo) head coaches. EDGE: Patriots
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium, which opened in 2016 in Minneapolis, hosts its first Super Bowl. Because the Vikings fell short of becoming the first team to play in the Super Bowl they’re hosting, there isn’t a big advantage for either outdoor club playing inside on field turf.
EDGE: Even
Who’s hot
Amendola has averaged eight catches for 91 yards and a touchdown in his past three postseason games, including two furious championship game comebacks, and Brady has tossed five touchdowns without a pick in the playoffs. Gilmore has four passes defensed in the playoffs as he continues to lead a strong second- half surge from the secondary. Foles has seven 20-plus-yard completions in the playoffs alongside a 122.1 rating and 77.8 completion percentage, and he’s been sacked just twice. Defensively, Cox and Chris Long each have three QB hits, with Long adding two passes defensed, one contributing to a pick-six, vs. Minnesota.
Who’s not
New England would love to get Hogan going after he missed seven of the final eight regularseason games with a shoulder injury and has yet to truly catch on in the playoffs — though he grabbed a short touchdown vs. Tennessee. Chung had his struggles vs. Jacksonville, days after Belichick called him “one of the best players in the league.” Although Pederson’s run game has averaged 31 carries per game this postseason, it’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry. The Eagles’ deep pass rush hasn’t needed much from starting DT