Wagering tips,
When the Philadelphia Eagles meet the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII, the teams will be eerily similar to the way they were in their Super Bowl XXXIX meeting: a 24-21 Patriots win as seven-point favorites.
Those teams had stingy, top-5 scoring defenses and both allowed 260 points. They enter this year’s contest with top-5 defenses that allowed 295 total points (Eagles) and 296 points (Patriots) in 2017. On the offensive front, Philadelphia scored 457 points during the season while New England had 458 points.
Let’s look at some themes from a wagering perspective heading into the big game:
Prop it up
If you agree and are looking to do more than just wager on the Eagles, or the Patriots, to win Super Bowl LII, hundreds of more options are now available thanks to Super Bowl propositions.
The total haul for sports books in Nevada from last year’s Super Bowl was $10.9 million of the more than $138 million dollars bet. The most lucrative Super Bowl this decade occurred in the 2014 clash between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, which earned the books $19.7 million, thanks largely to proposition wagering.
Super Bowl proposition wageringaccounts for nearly 60% of the entire Las Vegas wagering betting handle on the Super Bowl. For the most part, Super Bowl prop bets are novelty wagers not involving the final score of the game.
Jay Kornegay, the sports book director of the Westgate SuperBook and widely recog- nized as the king of the Super Bowl props, is offering up more than 400 props, the most by any sports book in Nevada.
“The props seem to grow in popularity each and every year,” Kornegay says. “Guests are more comfortable wagering on them, it’s a lot of fun and the betting public has had good results betting on the props.”
Coin toss
It all starts with the coin flip. It’s quick and can be bet one of two ways, either heads vs. tails or on the conference that wins the flip.
In its 51-year history, there have been 24 heads and 27 tails in the Super Bowl coin toss. In addition, the NFC has won 35 of 51 pregame calls, including 18 of the last 20. FYI: the Atlanta Falcons won last year’s pregame Super Bowl toss. However, New England won the toss in for overtime and rode it to a stirring win. It was the first overtime in Super Bowl history.
Trendy props
Perhaps the most popular prop is the player to score the first touchdown. According to the odds at the Westgate, Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski opened as the 7-1 favorite, despite the fact he was knocked out of the AFC championship with a concussion. Gronkowski is also the 7-1 favorite to score the game’s last touchdown.
Other popular props include “will there be overtime” and “will there be a safety?” Yes is 6-1 on each prop.
“The public has been rewarded by betting those over the last few years,” Kornegay says. “There was a safety in three consecutive years (from 2012 to 2014) and then we had overtime for the first time ever. But we have no complaints because ever since we’ve been doing props, we’ve won on that proposition.”
A prop last year that that was not good for Caesars Palace in Las Vegas was “will an extrapoint or field goal hit the goal post?” Bettors cashed in at plus-425 when Stephen Gostkowski’s extra-point attempt bounced off the right upright in the third quarter in Super Bowl XLI.
Caesars Palace, which lost five figures on the prop, has it back up this year at the reduced price of plus-330.
Streaking props
Here are prop bets from Ralph Michaels at WagerTalk.com that have produced winning results in recent years:
Team to score first wins the game: Yes, six of the last seven games.
Team to score last wins the game: Yes, 12 of the last 12 years.
Either team to score three unanswered times: Yes, five of the last six years.
Will there be a two-point conversion attempt: Yes, four of the last five years.
Will at least one quarter be scoreless: No, six of the last eight years.
Combined QB sacks over/ under 4.5: Over, four of the last six years.
Cross props
A cross prop is when props from other sporting events being played on Super Bowl Sunday are tied to the big game. Among this year’s 60 cross prop offerings at the Westgate, who will have more?
Kyrie Irving points or New England’s points?
Chris Paul points and assists or Tom Brady completions?
LeBron James rebounds and assists or Eagles-Patriots second-quarter points?
Paul George rebounds or Eagles-Patriots touchdowns?
Jordan Speith fourth-round birdies or Zach Ertz receptions?
2018 Winter Olympics gold medals by the USA or EaglesPatriots first-quarter points?
Liverpool yellow cards or Nick Foles touchdown passes?
Super Bowl MVP
Nevada sports books will be offering odds on the Super Bowl MVP for the third consecutive year.
Here are some of the openings odds on MVP contenders: Brady 4/5, Nick Foles 3/1, Gronkowski 12/1, Brandin Cooks 18/1, Dion Lewis 20/1 and Jay Ajayi, Danny Amendola and Zach Ertz, 25/1.
handicappers David Malinsky of Point Blank and Ted Sevransky of Covers.com chime in with their best prop bets in Sunday’s game.
Malinsky: Nick Foles passing over 235.5 yards merits a play. “It would have been easy for Doug Pederson and his coaches to have Foles take a knee and go to the locker room leading 21-7 with 29 seconds left and the ball at their own 20yard line against the Minnesota Vikings. Instead they showed the confidence to attack aggressively, three straight pass completions gaining 60 yards and setting up a field goal,” he says. “That confidence told me a lot, and now they get to step down in class against a far weaker defense than that of the Vikings in the ideal passing conditions of a dome."
Sevransky likes LeGarrette Blount total rushing yards under 40.5: “Blount is the Eagles leading rusher for the full season, but his workload declined significantly down the stretch,” Sevransky says. “He hasn’t had more than nine carries or more than 37 rushing yards in any game since November; with Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement eating away at his opportunities. Even with a huge lead against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, Blount only got the ball six times.”
Parting thought
Given the fact that New England has failed to score a single point in the first quarter in all seven of its Super Bowls behind Bill Belichick (outscored 15-0), my recommendation would be the “Under” 9.5 points in the first quarter of Super Bowl XVII. Lawrence publishes the “Playbook Football Preview Guide” magazine and the weekly online Playbook Football Newsletter (Playbook.com). You can follow him on Twitter @MarcLawrence.