Race for top arms:
Owning a select number of dominant pitchers can lead to fantasy championships.
PHOENIX – In an era of launch angles and exit velocities, with home runs leaving the yard in record numbers, it’s essential that fantasy baseball owners nail their pitching staffs.
The script has been flipped from what we’ve believed for so long. Hitting was supposed to be fairly stable, and pitching was unpredictable. But just one look at the top of last season’s statistical leaderboards, and draft-day afterthoughts such as Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Whit Merrifield jump out.
Meanwhile, the best pitchers are mostly the same ones we liked all along. As is the case in the majors, an ace pitcher can carry a fantasy team a long way — especially when fewer starters are getting the opportunity to pitch deep into games.
“There’s certain guys, like our guy (Clayton Kershaw). There’s (Max) Scherzer and some other guys that are going to eat 200 innings a year, but for the most part, there’s a certain way to manage guys,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says. “Also, teams are carrying more guys in the ’pen too. So (it’s) managing the starter and using your ’ pen differently.
“It’s kinda trending toward dinosaurs, I guess.”
Order them any way you like, but there are four T-Rexes in fantasy baseball drafts this season: Kershaw, Scherzer, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale. They’re all potential first-round picks because they give their owners a huge advantage. There simply aren’t enough aces to go around.
Starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings per start. Pitchers are making more frequent trips to the (new 10-day) disabled list. Some teams have already announced they’re going to six-man rotations this season. Don’t expect things to reverse course from last year, when:
Just 15 pitchers threw 200 or more innings.
Sixteen pitchers had 200 or more strikeouts.
Only 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title, the fewest in history.
It’s now more difficult than ever for fantasy owners to find quality starting pitchers because they have to check so many boxes.
“If you have a guy who’s able to pitch 200 innings, that means he’s not just durable but he’s pretty good also because you’re leaving him in games,” says Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona, who had two 200-inning starters last season in Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.
How can fantasy owners adapt to the changes taking place?
It’s not necessarily the total number of innings, but the quality of those innings that’s most important.
Robbie Ray was the last of the ERA qualifiers (with 162 innings in 2017), but he still ranked ninth in the majors with 218 strikeouts. “I’m always trying to attack the hitters,” Ray says.
The Dodgers’ Rich Hill threw 1352⁄ innings and tied for 31st 3 with 166 Ks.
Rather than fill those last pitching spots with poor starters, it’s often more effective to draft highly skilled relievers, even if they aren’t going to get saves.
In the American League last season, Chris Devenski produced $13 in Roto value. Only 16 starters were worth more. Also, Chad Green earned $12. Yusmeiro Petit and Andrew Miller yielded $11.
In the National League, Matt Albers ($11), Anthony Swarzak ($10), Ryan Madson ($9) and Pat Neshek ($9) were the best buys.
These days, the traditional roster composition of seven starters and two closers on a nine-man pitching staff is becoming the exception rather than the rule. Four or even five relievers might be the optimal construction, especially in ALor NL-only leagues.
Importance of an ace
During the height of the Steroid Era, Pedro Martinez somehow found a way to neutralize hitters. In 1999, he went 23-4 with a 2.07 ERA that was nearly three full runs lower than the AL average of 4.86. He also had a league-leading 313 strikeouts.
That kind of dominance in the face of such a hitter-friendly environment spurred Baseball
Weekly’s John Hunt to make what was arguably the most famous opening bid in fantasy history at the 2000 League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auction.
“Pedro Martinez. Fifty dollars.”
Believe it or not, Pedro was worth every penny that year ($50.82 to be exact — according to calculations from Rotowire’s Chris Liss in a 2013 column on historically great fantasy seasons). Martinez finished with 18 wins, a 1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 284 strikeouts.
Fast-forward to the present. While no pitcher is anywhere close to dominating the game the way Pedro did, the gap between what the best pitchers in the game are doing and what average pitchers are doing is considerable.
Kluber led the AL last season with a 2.25 ERA. Kershaw led the NL at 2.31. The average ERAs were 4.37 in the AL, 4.34 in the NL.
Having one of them gives a fantasy team a huge advantage.
Fantasy owners have figured out how much more valuable top starters are compared to replacement-level ones. This year, it took $38 to land Kluber and $39 for Sale in AL LABR.
Since there are only four aces at the top of the food chain, there aren’t enough for everyone. But other starters could come close to the top tier.
Stephen Strasburg posted a 0.86 ERA in 10 starts after the All-Star break. Justin Verlander went 10-2 in the second half with a 1.95 ERA. Madison Bum-
garner posted four consecutive seasons with an ERA under 3.00 before a dirt bike injury derailed him in 2017.
With batters looking to maximize damage by putting the ball in the air, look for pitchers who can miss bats or generate soft contact. Swinging strike rate leaders: 1. Kluber (15.6%), 2. Scherzer (15.5%), 3. Masahiro Tanaka (15.1%), 4. Sale (14.9%), 5. Ray (14.2%). Other notables: 7. Chris Archer (13.4%), 8. Carrasco (13.4%), 11. Luis Severino (13.0%), 14. Dan Straily (12.2%). Soft contact percentage
leaders: 1. Kluber (24.4%), 2. R.A. Dickey (24.3%), 3 Gerrit Cole (23.9%), 4. Kershaw (23.5%), 5. Ervin Santana (22.3%). Other notables: 6. Jimmy Nelson (22.3%), 7. Gio Gonzalez (21.7%), 8. Aaron Nola (21.6%), 10. Marco Estrada (21.4%).
And if there aren’t enough of those effective starters to go around, take a cue from today’s managers and don’t be afraid to go to the bullpen.