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Instead of seeking top basestealers, it pays off to go after cheaper speed in late rounds.
In fantasy baseball, the stolen base category can sometimes be tricky to manage. While the total number of stolen bases has held steady over the past three seasons (ranging from 2,505 to 2,537 a year), the number of players with 30 or more stolen bases per season has taken a tumble.
An average of 16 players and never fewer than 11 per season accomplished the feat from 2000 to 2014, but that number has fallen into single digits twice in the past three years — seven in 2015 and six in 2017. How does this new reality affect fantasy drafters?
Many players in that small pool who contribute a large number of stolen bases lack production in the other categories. Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds is a prime example. The 27-year-old outfielder has swiped between 56 and 59 bases a season from 2014 to 2017, but those thefts have been accompanied by an unsightly .246 batting average, four home runs and 33 RBI per season.
Seattle Mariners second baseman-outfielder Dee Gordon is another example, albeit to a lesser degree, as he at least provides a healthy batting average (.304 combined in 2,203 atbats from 2014 to 2017) to go with the lofty stolen base totals. The cost to acquire either player is significant, as evidenced by their average draft positions in 2018: Gordon is the 28th player selected; Hamilton the 62nd.
Savvy fantasy owners are sometimes hesitant to invest heavily in players of that ilk. All it takes is a leg injury (or, frankly, any other injury) to affect playing time and seriously undermine a player’s value. Instead, the safer strategy is to roster cheap speed that can be acquired either in the later rounds of the draft or during the season by picking up free agents. By looking for stolen bases in the late rounds, owners can allocate resources in earlier rounds to players who are more well-rounded.
For instance in 2017, one could have rostered the likes of Whit Merrifield (34 stolen bases), Cameron Maybin (33), Delino Deshields (29), Jarrod Dyson (28) and Tommy Pham (25) in the late rounds and/or free agent pool. Each of them ranked among the top 13 in stolen bases, combining for a total of 149 steals. A fantasy manager who took a flyer on a player or two from that group was able to piecemeal enough stolen bases to be competitive in the category while at the same time enjoying superior across-the-board production and reduced risk from early-round selections.
If you choose to pursue that strategy, here are some players to consider.
American League
Mallex Smith appears set to be the primary left fielder for the Tampa Bay Rays. The speedy outfielder has a .257 batting average and .323 on-base percentage with 32 stolen bases in 445 career at-bats in the majors. He is a legit threat to swipe 30 bases and could even exceed 40 with regular playing time.
It was a season of ups and downs for Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, but he still wound up with a .257 batting average, 17 home runs and 15 steals. Though the 25year-old hasn’t been as active on the basepaths since swiping 49 bags in Class AA in 2015, he has been successful on 25 of 28 attempts as a major leaguer, including 10 of 11 in the second half of 2017.
While Anderson’s plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired — he posted the third-worst onbase percentage (.276) in the majors a year ago — a small improvement there, along with a few more green lights, could unlock a 25- to 30-steal season. Detroit Tigers outfielder Leo
nys Martin will try to rebound from a disastrous 2017 campaign that was spent mostly in the minors. After using more of an uppercut swing in an attempt to improve his launch angle, the 30-year-old has reverted to his more familiar flatter swing. As of now, he is projected to be Detroit’s opening-day center fielder and could find himself batting leadoff.
While Martin has struggled in two of the past three years, he also averaged 26 stolen bases a season from 2013 to 2016, twice topping 30 steals. Don’t be afraid to take a flyer on Martin in the later rounds of your draft.
National League
Jonathan Villar of the Milwaukee Brewers was a prime target for cheap stolen bases heading into 2016 fantasy drafts, and those who took a chance on him were rewarded with a career year (.285 average, 19 home runs and 62 stolen bases). That stellar performance made him a top-25 pick in most 2017 fantasy drafts, though those who paid the hefty price tag were disappointed as he batted .241 with 11 home runs and 23 steals in 403 at-bats.
It’s possible injuries (right shoulder tightness, lower back strain) played a role in his 2017 struggles. Now healthy, the 27year-old could provide a significant return on investment at his current near-200 average draft position.
Cincinnati Reds middle infielder Jose Peraza was typically selected around pick 100 in 2017 fantasy drafts after batting .324 with 21 steals in 241 at-bats in 2016, but he under-delivered on expectations (.259 average, .297 on-base percentage and 23 stolen bases in 487 at-bats). However, the 24-year-old demonstrated much better pitch recognition in the second half, compiling a .268 average and .333 OBP in 164 at-bats. If he can carry those gains into 2018, a 40-steal season could be forthcoming. Ketel Marte, 24, of the Arizona Diamondbacks retooled his swing early last year at Class AAA, attempting to lift and drive the ball more. The modifi- cation paid dividends as he hit .338 with six home runs and seven stolen bases in 311 at-bats at Reno before batting .260 with a .345 on-base percentage, five home runs and three steals in 218 at-bats with Arizona. The speedy Marte flirted with 30steal seasons as a minor leaguer in 2014 and 2015, so the seeds are there for a potential breakout.
Nagging injuries plagued St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong in 2017, but he still managed to bat .285 with four home runs and eight stolen bases in 354 at-bats. The 27-year-old hasn’t had many chances to show off his speed over the past couple of seasons, but he has become an extremely efficient basestealer, having been caught just twice in his last 17 big-league attempts. While we don’t put much stock in spring training stats, it’s worth noting that he has swiped six bags in his first seven spring training games. Wong has 10-12 home run/25 steal upside, so his current average draft position of 372 allows lots of room for profit.