Bold fantasy predictions
So much of our preseason preparation in fantasy baseball is based on trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen.
We look at average draft positions, three-year averages and formulate our best guesses about how players are going to perform.
But winning a fantasy league can often be a matter of finding a little nugget of truth that can lead us to the possibility of what might happen.
Last spring, no one had any idea Aaron Judge would be the everyday right fielder for the New York Yankees, much less lead the American League with 52 home runs. Fantasy owners who took a shot on Judge’s massive raw power were rewarded with a stat line that could have carried them to a league title.
Instead of taking the usual conservative approach, let’s go out on a limb and explore the realm of possibilities:
Maikel Franco hits 40 homers
The Philadelphia Phillies third baseman was a disappointment last year, hitting .230 with a .281 on-base percentage and 24 homers. He even lost playing time down the stretch to rookie J.P. Crawford.
However, a rebound could be forthcoming. For starters, Franco, 25, struck out less frequently and walked more often than he did in 2016. His .234 average on balls in play was fourth-worst among qualified hitters.
He got off to a horrible start, but began hitting more fly balls in the second half. In a home park that was by far the most homer-friendly in the majors in 2017 — and with a much better supporting cast around him this season — a spike in power will take Franco’s fantasy value to the next level
Aaron Hicks leads the AL in runs
Yes, Hicks has missed time with injuries in every one of his first five seasons in the majors. He doesn’t have much of a track record at the plate, except for a few scattered hot streaks.
Yet the former first-round pick is in a fantastic position to erase those failures as part of baseball’s most imposing lineup. In 88 games last season, Hicks, 28, put up a .372 on-base percentage, hit 15 homers, stole 10 bases and scored 54 runs.
With those skills, he’d be a great fit at the top of the Yankees lineup. Brett Gardner is there now, but he’s six years older than Hicks. Fantasy owners will hope Hicks gets an opportunity to lead off in front of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Co. The results would be huge.
Mike Zunino is the No. 2 fantasy catcher
Another former first-rounder, Zunino hit 25 homers and ranked second among catchers last season (behind Sanchez) with a .509 slugging percentage. Statcast metrics show how hard he hits the ball, ranking him 30th in the majors in barrels per plate appearance – just behind Sanchez, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.
Entering his age-27 season as the Seattle Mariners’ unquestioned No. 1 backstop, Zunino should do plenty of damage as he reaches 500 plate appearances for the first time in his career.
Manny Machado traded at the deadline
Baltimore isnt’ going to be able to re-sign Machado when he becomes a free agent next winter. They Orioles also aren’t going to be able to field a playoff-caliber team in the brutal AL East.
A trade is the only way to salvage what’s left of Machado’s value. Fortunately, there are a few contenders in the National League who might consider finding room for him in July – the way the Arizona Diamondbacks did for J.D. Martinez last season.
Machado’s future is at shortstop, and although the Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals don’t currently have an opening there, they have rosters flexible enough to accommodate the addition of someone who could put them in the playoffs.
Injuries could also strike other contenders who might be willing to spring for a talented late-season rental. Save your FAAB dollars.
Robbie Ray strikes out more than Max Scherzer
This is one of my favorite types of bold predictions because there are two ways to get it right.
First, Ray has struck out exactly 218 batters in consecutive seasons – and his 14.2% swinging strike rate in 2017 ranked fifth among starters. He missed time last season with a concussion, so an increase over his 162 innings should naturally bring an increase in strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Scherzer has been the gold standard for consistency among starting pitchers, logging at least 200 innings and averaging 264 strikeouts over the past five seasons. At 33, Scherzer is seven years older than Ray and might be more susceptible to injury.
Jose Martinez, C.J. Cron hit 30 home runs
Martinez is a popular breakout pick after putting up impressive advanced stats in just over 300 plate appearances. At 6-7, he’s just starting to use that leverage to generate more power by hitting more fly balls.
With his excellent plate discipline remaining intact, the results were impressive: .309/ .379/.518 with 14 homers. If an opening develops in St. Louis at first base or corner outfield, Martinez will be ready to pounce.
On the other hand, Cron finally has an opportunity to play regularly for the first time in his career. No longer blocked by Albert Pujols and Luis Valbuena in Anaheim, Cron gets a fresh start with the Tampa Bay Rays – and could become this season’s version of Logan Morrison.
Cron, 28, has finished with 16 homers each of the past three seasons. Yet his career slugging percentage is higher than Morrison’s. And he’s two years younger.
Eric Hosmer is the biggestdisappointment
The San Diego Padres deserve credit for making a commitment to their future and signing the free-agent first baseman. However, his career high in home runs is 25 and he’s coming off a season in which his .318 batting average was boosted by a .351 mark on balls in play (14th-highest among qualified hitters).
Players often go through an adjustment period when switching leagues, but it might be a little more difficult for Hosmer.
Over his career, Hosmer has an on-base plus slugging percentage of .825 against righthanded pitchers and .693 against lefties. However, there haven’t been many elite-level left-handers in American League – particularly in the AL Central when Hosmer was with the Kansas City Royals.
In the NL West, he could see Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Robbie Ray, Patrick Corbin and (once he’s healthy) Madison Bumgarner on a regular basis.