❚ The po­ten­tial next mem­bers of Club 3,000,

USA TODAY Sports Weekly - - INSIDE - Scott Boeck

Al­bert Pu­jols be­came the 32nd mem­ber of the 3,000-hit club when the Los An­ge­les An­gels first base­man reached the mile­stone last week against with a sin­gle against the Seat­tle Mariners.

It’s the fourth con­sec­u­tive sea­son we’ve seen a player reach the mile­stone. Then-New York Yan­kees third base­man Alex Ro­driguez pulled it off in 2015. Then-Mi­ami Mar­lins out­fielder Ichiro Suzuki did it in 2016. And Texas Rangers third base­man Adrian Bel­tre fol­lowed Suzuki in 2017. So who’s next in line? The only sure thing is this wait will be longer.

En­ter­ing the week, Detroit Tigers slug­ger Miguel Cabr­era was 334 hits shy of 3,000; as­sum­ing Cabr­era stays rel­a­tively healthy — he was placed on the dis­abled list May 4 with a ham­string strain — he should cross the 3,000-hit plateau dur­ing the 2020 sea­son, shortly af­ter his 37th birth­day.

Robin­son Cano of the Seat­tle Mariners, also 35, had 2,410 hits and, given that he’s signed through 2023, is also a vir­tual shoo-in.

Af­ter those two, it could be a few sea­sons be­fore we see it ac­com­plished again.

By us­ing a for­mula cre­ated by Bill James called “The Favorite Toy,” we can pre­dict the like­li­hood and chances, bar­ring any se­ri­ous in­jury, of a player who can reach a cer­tain bench mark. This par­tic­u­lar for­mula uses a player’s age and re­cent per­for­mance his­tory to pre­dict the chances.

Here’s a re­cent look at po­ten­tial new mem­bers of the 3,000hit club: (min­i­mum of 1,000 hits):

Miguel Cabr­era, Tigers

❚ Age: 35

❚ Hits: 2,666

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 4

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 80%

Jose Al­tuve, Hous­ton Astros

❚ Age: 28

❚ Hits: 1,296

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 49

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 45%

Robin­son Cano, Seat­tle Mariners

❚ Age: 35

❚ Hits: 2,408

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 5

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 40%

Elvis An­drus, Texas Rangers

❚ Age: 29

❚ Hits: 1,474

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 31

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 24.5%

Eric Hos­mer, San Diego Padres

❚ Age: 28

❚ Hits: 1,167

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 58

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 20%

Nick Markakis, At­lanta Braves

❚ Age: 34

❚ Hits: 2,097

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 7

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 16%

Mike Trout, Los An­ge­les An­gels

❚ Age: 26

❚ Hits: 1,082

❚ Rank among ac­tive play­ers: 67

❚ Chance of get­ting to 3,000 hits: 14%


For play­ers in their 20s, Hous­ton Astros sec­ond base­man Jose Al­tuve is the most likely to get to 3,000 hits.


Miguel Cabr­era is less than 400 hits away from 3,000.


Robin­son Cano is clos­ing in on 3,000 hits.

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