❚ Can Bryce Harper and other struggling hitters rebound?
As the dog days of summer approach, some high-priced MLB talent currently resides in the dog house.
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) can account for a low batting average. Batters tend to establish their own rate that stabilizes over the years, so if it’s low after a few months, there’s a fair chance BABIP and batting average will normalize over the rest of the season. But sometimes, problems go deeper.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
What’s eating at the Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper
(.212 BABIP)? Could the possibility of a nine-figure free-agent contract be weighing him down? He’s striking out more than usual, with whiffs in close to 40% of his June plate appearances. Other than that, the profile’s fine – plenty of fly balls with a high launch angle and exit velocity consistent with years past. With three month-plus DL stints in the past five years, Harper will always carry some health risk. But if he stays on the field and starts making better contact, he’ll produce in the second half.
Ryan Braun (.260 BABIP) of the Milwaukee Brewers will always be tied to steroid use. But when he got back from that suspension, he produced $30-plus seasons in 2015 and 2016. Lately, though, his launch angle’s been pretty low, contributing to a lot of ground balls. He's also striking out more than usual.
Age catches up with everyone, and at 34, don't count on a lot from Braun — especially now that he’s on the disabled list for a second time this season with a back issue.
After spending the first eight years of his career in Cleveland, NL-only owners were happy to see Carlos Santana (.216 BABIP) move to Philadelphia. Talk about a tough start, he hit .153 with two home runs through the end of April. While he’s picked up the power pace, his batting average still lags behind. Santana’s another guy who makes fine contact; the hits will start falling. Plus, the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park mean there’s likely to be plenty of power to come.
When the front office calls you out publicly for lack of effort, it’s not a good look. John Mozeliak, the St. Louis Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, recently noted that Dexter Fowler (.201 BABIP) would lose playing time until he reversed his plate woes.
With a batting average well south of .200, who can blame him? Some encouraging trends exist: Fowler is making contact as usual and putting the ball in the air a lot. But while a boost in launch angle looks good, a decrease in exit velocity makes many of those fly balls easy pop-ups. Fowler will hit for better average in the second half — how could he not? — but until he starts squaring the ball up, his production will be limited.
With 64 home runs in 201617, there’s no doubt the Cincinnati Reds’ Adam Duvall (.233 BABIP) is a power hitter. But his batting average was only .245 over that span. A history of big strikeout numbers means he’s never going to hit for a high average. But after a horrid April and May (.181 average), Duvall has turned it around in June (.263). Look for more production as his BABIP stabilizes. While the Colorado Rockies’
Ian Desmond (.244 BABIP) has only a .214 average, he’s clubbed 17 home runs. So he’ll remain productive, right? Not so fast. Desmond struggles to get the ball airborne, as more than 60% of batted balls go on the ground.
Plus, over 40% of the fly balls he’s hit have left the yard — an unsustainable percentage given his typical 15-18% rate. Sure, Coors Field helps, but there’s no way Desmond keeps this up. While his batting average may rise a bit, he won’t keep hitting homers at the same pace.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Earning at least $20 in three of the last four years made the Minnesota Twins’ Brian Dozier
(.243 BABIP) a popular middle infield choice in 2018, rarely lasting until the end of the third round. Those lofty expectations only make his 2018 performance more disappointing. Perhaps looming free agency is in his head, also.
Dozier’s plate approach remains unchanged – he takes plenty of walks and strikes out at a league-average pace. But there’s been a power outage of sorts, with fewer fly balls leaving the yard. With a five-year track record of solid contact and strong power, look for Dozier to make a statement in the second half.
As if the early season slump wasn’t enough to discourage New York Yankees fans, Gary
Sanchez (.194 BABIP) now sits on the DL with a groin strain. Sanchez's plate approach looks similar to last year, striking out a tad too much, but with plenty of power. His launch angle leads to plenty of fly balls and home runs. Plus, at 22, there’s plenty of room to grow. When Sanchez gets back into the lineup, look for a big contribution to New York's playoff push.
High batting average and 32 home runs in 2017 made Jonathan Schoop (.228 BABIP) of the Baltimore Orioles a popular target on draft day. Sure, he’s missed time this year with an oblique injury, but he’s disappointed when he’s been on the field. There are reasons for concern: Schoop isn’t making hard contact, and he’s lost a bit of exit velocity. A drop in launch angle also saps some power. Schoop has some swing mechanics to iron out before he can be counted on for a second-half surge.
Watch Jackie Bradley Jr.
(.254 BABIP) patrol center field for Boston, and you understand his real-life value. And he’s produced at the plate before, with a .267 average and 26 home runs in 2016. But since the midpoint of 2017, Bradley hasn’t produced much offensive value.
With a batting average hovering around the Mendoza line, he’s striking out in roughly 30% of his plate appearances. It doesn’t help that Bradley puts the ball on the ground frequently with below-average power. While Bradley is fun to watch in the outfield, don’t count on a big contribution at the plate. In 2017, the Oakland A’s Matt
Joyce (.235 BABIP) hit the most home runs in his 10-year career, which was a bit of a surprise in the pitcher’s paradise of Oakland Coliseum. He’s been unable to sustain his gains this year, and losing time to a back injury hasn’t helped. Although launch angle and exit velocity remain consistent with years past, Joyce’s power remains MIA. Strikeouts limit any batting average upside, and his home park puts a cap on power, so don’t expect Joyce to pick up the pace much over the rest of the year.