Safety in numbers
Trying to make up ground in September often requires fantasy baseball owners to take on more risk than they might prefer.
With major league rosters expanding, there are many speculative choices at their disposal.
Most of them — even the top prospects — are unlikely to move the needle because they won’t get steady work or they will already be taken in your league.
A better strategy is to target players on a growth curve, whose underlying skills have been surging lately.
Below are a bunch of speculative options with major league experience who could provide some overlooked value in September.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Hitters
September speed speculations do not get much better than Mallex Smith of the Tampa Bay Rays, even though a viral infection likely will keep him out until the middle of the month. After a July that saw him post a 1.041 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), Smith improved his game even further in August, posting an elite 1.046 OPS while doubling his walk rate.
With elite speed skills and blossoming plate discipline, Smith makes a good target for the second half of September, and he is also an intriguing 50stolen base speculation for 2019.
Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is another prepeak outfielder worthy of attention. His first full month in the majors was in August, and it went really well. He had a .317 batting average and .941 OPS that month, and his solid 0.64 walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) confirms that his approach at the plate was sound.
His ground-ball stroke means you cannot expect much power from him, but he does carry some sneaky batting average and stolen base upside.
Mikie Mahtook of the Detroit Tigers worked on adjusting his swing at Class AAA after a horrible start to the season. He turned things around after his recall in August, putting up a very good .936 OPS.
Mahtook still struggles to make consistent contact, which will leave him prone to continued ups and downs. But he owns enough pop and speed to have an impact down the stretch.
Pitchers
Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox was one of the top pitching prospects in the game a few years ago. That upside seemingly has been washed away by the 5.66 ERA and 1.41 WHIP he has inflicted on his owners this season. However, he made some tweaks to his pitch mix in August with muchimproved results.
Giolito had a 3.86 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over six starts in August, posting more strikeouts and fewer walks than during any other month this season. His fastball velocity has rebounded too, and interestingly, it has increased in every month this season. Giolito makes for an intriguing risk/reward play down the stretch.
The Oakland Athletics’ Mike Fiers can go through stretches where his fastball is hard to pick up. After being traded from Detroit and thrust into a pennant chase, now appears to be one of those times. He posted an elite 31/3 K/BB in 30 innings during August.
Right-hander Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is another former top pitching prospect who has yet to find the consistency needed to succeed at the major league level. He made the most out of his fresh start with Tampa Bay during the month of August, putting up an excellent 38/ 10 K/BB over 31 innings.
Those skills supported the 3.23 ERA and 0.85 WHIP he posted last month. The question remains whether Glasnow has the control needed to be a successful starting pitcher. Still, his combination of strikeouts and ground balls makes him a worthy speculation in September if you can stomach his risk.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Hitters
Roman Quinn of the Philadelphia Phillies is another overlooked outfielder who is turning his top-shelf raw speed into results. His professional development has been stalled by injuries, but a healthy Quinn put together a nice August in Philadelphia, going six-for-six in steals and making better contact at the plate than he did during his debut in the majors a couple of years ago.
The New York Mets’ Jeff McNeil does not own much of a prospect pedigree. But he emerged as an impact bat in the minors this season. He has produced a .850 OPS since joining the Mets, and that mark has not been the result of opening up his swing. He has made contact at a very high level, and he has even displayed some good wheels. McNeil carries intriguing upside down the stretch.
Pittsburgh Pirates infielderoutfielder Adam Frazier is another utilityman who is looking more and more like a future everyday player. After struggling at the plate early in the season, Frazier is ending it with a flourish. He was excellent in August, a month during which he combined very good plate discipline with good pop. Frazier has put up a .340 batting average with very good underlying power skills in the second half. And he qualifies at both second base and outfield in many leagues.
A former top prospect of Colorado Rockies, David Dahl has not been able to stay healthy enough to make an impact in the majors. That said, his plate skills have improved greatly in the second half. He also has flashed intriguing power and speed skills at different points in 2018. At age 24, it is way too soon to write him off. Pitchers
Few starting pitchers have been better in the second half than Colorado’s German Marquez. At age 23, Marquez has delivered a 2.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP since July 1. Those marks have been supported by elite command too. He has a rate of 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) with a walk rate of 1.8 per nine innings over the same period. Marquez also is inducing ground balls at a steady clip. With a strong finish, he could be one of the game’s top early 2019 breakout targets.
Embattled righty bullpen arm Hector Neris of the Philadelphia Phillies lost his closer gig earlier in the season. That demotion — as well as his 5.31 ERA — have kept him on the waiver wire in many leagues. He is likely to remain there, as Seranthony Dominguez has solidified his hold on the closer job.
That said, Dominguez has posted a rough 7.45 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the past month, while Neris has been the game’s most skilled reliever. Neris owns a 20/2 K/BB over his last nine innings. A tiny sample size for sure, but it is one that should warrant attention in a deep league.
Right-handed pitcher Brandon Woodruff has been recalled by the Milwaukee Brewers and likely will work in a swingman role in September. While the star has dimmed on Woodruff a bit, he still features moving mid-90s stuff. He used it to generate a very good 9.3 K/9 with Milwaukee earlier this season. He also kept the ball on the ground at a high rate. Woodruff’s 6.0 K/BB against righties suggests he is a tweak-againstlefties away from turning his enticing skill flashes into results.