Arizona faces dark future
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ sudden descent has brought upon a host of questions that just a month ago seemed to be perhaps a full year away. The most prominent among them: Is six-time All-Star Paul Goldschmidt’s time with the franchise nearing an end?
The Diamondbacks’ core of players will miss the postseason for the second time in three years. They lost 93 games in 2016 and won 93 in 2017. This year, it appears, they will finish with 80-something wins.
While some of their players could return to health and others could have bounce-back years, the Diamondbacks still will have to fill the voids left by mainstays in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock, assuming they do, in fact, walk as free agents this winter.
Their departures will free up some money, but holes like theirs will not be easy to fill in free agency or via trade. Moreover, the Diamondbacks do not have high-end replacements waiting in the upper minors, and the depth of their farm system has been compromised by their win-now trades from the past year or so, something that puts even more pressure on the major league roster.
With the usual caveat about the unpredictability of baseball, everything seems to suggest a rebuild is coming, whether it’s this year or next. The question is where Goldschmidt, the team’s regular first baseman since 2012, fits in it. And where he wants to fit in it.
Certainly, the club will pick up his $14.5 million option for next year. Beyond that, it’s less clear. They could go for it one last year. The Diamondbacks could look to extend their franchise player.
Or, as jarring as they could look to this winter.
On the one hand, Goldschmidt could welcome a contract it sounds, deal Goldschmidt extension as long as it pays him closer to market value than the team-friendly five-year, $32 million deal he signed more than five years ago. He seems to enjoy playing in Arizona. He appears to prefer being out of the spotlight that would come with a big market. And he seems to be a creature of habit and routine, and remaining in Arizona would be the path of least resistance.
But it’s also possible Goldschmidt sees it like this: He has never won a championship. The Diamondbacks do not seem well-equipped to contend for one anytime soon, and there’s no guarantees in terms of how long a rebuild would take or whether it would be successful. He turned 31 in September, and he might not want to spend the end of his prime playing in games that might not matter.
If the club hasn’t already, it would seem the team’s first order of business this offseason should be to taking Goldschmidt’s temperature. If going through a rebuild isn’t of interest to him or if he wants to test the open market, it might be best to part ways sooner than later.
If he’s open to staying, with the knowledge there could be lean years ahead, they would at least know that path is open. But that doesn’t mean they would have to, or even should, go that way. The team could decide spending $25 million a year on a player for a club that isn’t expected to contend might not be the best use of resources.
If that’s the case, if the front office indeed believes the window is closing for this group of players and doesn’t want to spend the money to keep him around during a rebuild, then the best path forward seems fairly obvious: The team should try to recoup as much value from Goldschmidt as possible by trading him.