Cowboys (8-5) at Colts (7-6)
L ........ Cincinnati ........ 34-23 W ..... at Washington ..... 21-9 L .... at Philadelphia .... 20-16 L ......... Houston ......... 37-34 L ...at New England ...38-24 L ........ at N.Y. Jets ........ 42-34 W ........... Buffalo ........... 37-5 W ....... at Oakland ....... 42-28 Nov. 4 ............... Bye ............... W ..... Jacksonville ..... 29-26 W ....... Tennessee ....... 38-10 W ........... Miami ........... 27-24 L ....... at Jacksonville ....... 6-0 W ...... at Houston ...... 24-21 Dec. 16 .......... Dallas .......... 1 Dec. 23 ......... Giants ......... 1 Dec. 30 ...at Tennessee ...1
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: Fox
Danny Sheridan’s odds: by 3
Cowboys’ keys to victory: One of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Cowboys will be able to find success by keeping the Colts’ pass rush at bay. QB Dak Prescott will be able to lean on WR Amari Cooper if the offensive line holds its own. RB Ezekiel Elliott will want to get his share of looks, but leaning on the pass might help as the Colts are allowing the secondhighest completion percentage (71.9) in the NFL. Defensively, the pass rush led by DE DeMarcus Lawrence will need to apply steady pressure on Andrew Luck, who averaged 14.8 yards per completion in Week 14.
Colts’ keys to victory: The Colts’ offense has found success through the air with Luck leaning on TE Eric Ebron in the red zone while WR T.Y. Hilton has recorded at least 125 receiving yards in three of the last four games. Getting RB Marlon Mack going is needed for a backfield averaging 2.3 yards per carry over the last two games. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus should continue blitzing on third down to add help for a pass rush led by DT Denico Autry, who has five sacks in the last two games.
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Braden Smith vs. Cowboys DE Lawrence. The second-round pick in 2018, Smith has held his own against some tough pass rushers. Lawrence continues to shine as one of the top pass rushers in the league.
Who wins? This will be a really close game and it could go either way, but the Colts haven’t lost at home since September because of a potent offense and an overachieving defense.
Colts, 21-20 Colts