Harper and Machado
Breaking down which teams offer the best opportunities for MLB’s two hottest free agents.
Baseball’s winter ball has progressed from a sleepy affair, both sides on opposite ends of the dining hall, to an awkward line dance.
So Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are left to ask one question: Is this everybody?
And if that’s it, where do the two 26-year-old potential Hall of Famers best fit among the Phillies, White Sox, Padres and Nationals?
Let’s break down which clubs offer the best opportunities for each in terms of contract size, quality of life and baseball prosperity:
Bryce Harper
4. White Sox: Nothing against Chicago’s South Side, or the many millions of dollars owner Jerry Reinsdorf might lavish upon him, but Harper simply has more optimal destinations. The White Sox are getting close in their rebuilding efforts but are definitely much further away from contention than the Phillies and Nationals and lack the organizational depth the Padres boast.
3. Phillies: If it comes down to straight cash, put the Phillies atop this list. They’ve been saving it for years and still haven’t been “stupid” about spending it this winter. Their combo of revenue, market size, hunger and paucity of future contract commitments empower them to blow Harper away with a record-setting deal.
Can money buy Harper love? He’d be entering the most pressure-packed environment among the four franchises and could be a pariah in two markets: Philly, should he get off to a slow start, and Washington, where a segment of the fan populace would feel some sense of betrayal that he scooted a couple of hours up I-95 to try and beat the Nationals 19 times a year. He could certainly mash at Citizens Bank Park (where he has a lifetime .930 OPS), but he’d bear the brunt of the blame if things go awry. A lucrative, but nettlesome destination.
2. Nationals: It’s familiar. He’d be the guy who came home.
The question is, how deep can owner Ted Lerner dig into his pockets for Harper? The club did make that offer in the range of $300 million before free agency began, knowing well that Harper would reject and that he’d almost assuredly fetch more on the open market. So now that he’s there, and the Nationals have laid out $140 million for Patrick Corbin to go along with nine-figure deals for fellow starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, what’s their ’ final offer?
Probably less than what the Phillies would, will or have offered. Would it be close enough to make him reconsider?
1. Padres: We’ve been bullish on a Harper-Padres union for a while, and last week’s meeting between player and club brought that concept fully into public view. The Padres can offer Harper everything the other clubs can but also much, much more.
Money: With dollars committed merely to Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers after 2020 (and Myers dropping off after 2022), the Padres can dip into revenue that include a local TV contract valued at more than $1 billion to make Harper more than whole. With the game’s consensus best farm system ready to graduate several potential stars, the Padres have the potential to contain costs up and down the roster for years.
Success: While shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is the jewel of the system and a consensus top three overall prospect, the depth of pitching in the system is what gives the Padres the greatest shot at long-term, onfield prosperity.
Happiness: Harper would be beloved by a market that has only the Padres to admire. After years at chafing over rain delays, he’d play in the best weather the major leagues can offer. And he and wife Kayla would be just a few hours’ drive (or less than an hourlong flight) from their Las Vegas home.
Topping that will require a significant ante from everyone else.
Manny Machado
4. Nationals: Not in on Machado.
3. Padres: Many of the reasons that make Harper a great fit in San Diego apply to Machado. The Padres have an immediate need at third base, and Machado could conceivably team with Tatis for nearly a decade on the left side of the infield. But would Machado be willing to cede shortstop forever? For now, though, a Harper-Padres pact seems to have greater momentum.
2. White Sox: We’re not here to overplay the Machadofriendly moves the White Sox made — trading for brother-inlaw Yonder Alonso, signing close friend Jon Jay — but also not going to ignore them. Machado could assimilate quickly on the South Side, and if he’s truly going to embrace the heel role he cultivated in the postseason, donning the silver and black and casting himself as the non-cuddly, Anti-Cub of Chicago would be so much fun.
The White Sox are also in position to give Machado anything he wants. A blank check? They have just $15 million committed for 2020 and nothing beyond 2023. The shortstop position? If the White Sox determine Tim Anderson’s inability to get on base (a .286 career OBP over three seasons) is a chronic condition, they could trade him or move him to a reserve role.
1. Phillies: The December meeting between player and team seemed a little forced, and maybe this wouldn’t be Machado’s first choice. But in this scenario, where Harper finds a home somewhere beyond the City of Brotherly Love, Philly will suddenly look very enticing.
Machado would rejoin forces with former Orioles coach and mentor Bobby Dickerson. And he’d be moving into a hitter’s haven to further burnish a possible Hall of Fame candidacy.
After getting his first taste of the World Series a year ago, Machado would be joining a readymade contender. It’s quite possible that after a weird winter, he’d be signing a contract that begins with a 3 and is followed by many zeroes.
That’s more than enough to get the most reluctant sort onto the dance floor.