Pitching changes will be key factors
Five issues facing the Astros:
Losses in the rotation:
Even after signing Wade Miley in early February, Houston had lost more than it had added this offseason, and the AL West rival Oakland Athletics look to be for real after their surprise 97-win campaign in 2018.
The Astros’ starting pitching was a great strength in 2017 and 2018, but two potential free agent departures left the club looking a bit untested in the back end before it got Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA in 16 starts with the Brewers last season) on a one-year, $4.5 million deal. Charlie Morton is gone for certain, and Dallas Keuchel could follow.
Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the full season after having Tommy John surgery. Collin McHugh, who excelled in a relief role in 2018, will likely return to fill one spot.
Houston will likely turn to its wealth of promising prospects for its open jobs. Fireballer Josh James and lefty Framber Valdez should compete for it.
The bullpen:
Moving McHugh back to a starting role means removing from the bullpen a guy who threw 721⁄3 innings with a 1.99 ERA in 2018, and sidearmer Joe Smith will miss much of the season after rupturing his Achilles tendon in an offseason workout.
Midseason additions Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly both looked dominant in their turns with Houston in 2018, and righty Will Harris is steady in the middle innings. Though they lack a tested lefty, the Astros still have all the makings of a good relief corps, just not one quite as deep or as dependable as they featured last year.
Gonzalez, a switch-hitter who spent time at every defensive position besides pitcher and catcher in 2018, proved one of baseball’s most useful gadgets in manager A.J. Hinch’s hands, allowing the Astros the flexibility to patch holes, play matchups and rest regulars without giving up much on either side of the ball.
They still have a good deal of versatility. Infield regulars Alex Bregman and
Yuli Gurriel play third and first, respectively, only because Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa lock down the up-the-middle spots, and Tony Kemp gives them a lefty bench bat and fielder who can play in both the outfield and the infield.
But Gonzalez’s ability to be a plus of- fensive and defensive player wherever they played him is rare.
health:
A nagging back injury hampered the superstar shortstop in 2018. Correa missed July on the disabled list, then returned and hit .180 with a paltry .517 OPS from Aug. 10 through the end of the regular season. He finished the year with career-worst numbers in practically every offensive category, marks well below the MVP-caliber standards he established in his first three years in the majors.
The Astros’ lineup looks strong even with a diminished Correa, but having him back at full capacity would make it downright scary again.
Prospects knocking:
For a club enjoying big-league success after a lengthy rebuild, the Astros still have a host of well-regarded and near-ready prospects. Outfielder Kyle Tucker hit .332 with a .989 OPS as a 21-year-old in Class AAA last year but looks likely to return to that level to start 2019 due to the presence of veterans George Springer, Josh Reddick and new addition Michael Brantley.
Lefty-swinging slugger Yordan Alvarez, a 21-year-old who hit well across Class AA and Class AAA last year, will presumably join Tucker in a stacked Class AAA outfield mix. Top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley also could challenge for a starting role at some point.