Leading OFF
Bold predictions could make for maddening March tournament
Remember when University of Maryland Baltimore County upset Virginia in 2018?
No one saw that coming. It was the first time a No. 1 seed ever lost to a No. 16 seed in the men’s NCAA tournament.
It would have been a gutsy pick in an office pool. But bold picks that actually happen provide all of the glory that March Madness is about.
Here’s a look at 10 predictions for this year’s tournament:
Duke doesn’t win it all
Now that Zion Williamson is back and the Blue Devils looked the part of the title favorite (claiming the ACC tournament title), it will be difficult to pick against this high-octane No. 1 seed. That’s because Williamson changes the game’s tempo in a variety of ways and teammate R.J. Barrett is arguably a better national player of the year candidate for his playmaking.
But here’s a secret: This team isn’t that great at shooting. Cam Reddish is, but he’s streaky. The team as a whole shoots 30 percent from beyond the arc (ranking 339th of 353 Division I teams). So if a team plays zone, as Gonzaga and Syracuse did in two regular-season losses on Duke’s resume, an upset is doable (looking at you, Tom Izzo).
It’s not to say this Duke team isn’t one of the most talented teams in college basketball history. But the single-elimination NCAA tournament isn’t always kind to powerhouse teams. Just ask Kentucky in 2015.
The Wildcats were heavily favored to win that national title and hadn’t lost a single game before Wisconsin pulled off a tournament shocker.
The team to win that year? Duke. Karma is coming back, Blue Devils.
Virginia wins it all
The Cavaliers’ loss to Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals felt eerily similar to last year’s historic first-round upset loss to UMBC. And you’ll hear over and over again about Virginia being a boring pick and criticism that the Cavaliers are not athletic enough to win the whole thing.
That point is not exactly wrong, but the fact is that UVA has the nation’s best defense (it’s not even close, allowing 55 points per game) and is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the tournament. More than those factors, this team has hidden motivation that speaks more volumes than X’s and O’s. Prior to the season, All-American Kyle Guy told USA TODAY: “A lot of people think a Final Four would (erase last year). A national championship is the only way to shut everyone up.”
Another No. 16 beats a No. 1
Oh but if Virginia doesn’t give us a historic upset, what No. 1 can?
Gonzaga.
The Zags have the nation’s most explosive offense, averaging 89 points per game. They also were the first team to beat Duke, and the selection committee seemed to think that win was worth four wins when seeding them.
But if there’s one thing the West Coast Conference tournament final showed us, it’s that anything is possible when a team’s not ready.
Saint Mary’s unexpectedly won that game just a month after losing to that same Gonzaga team by 48 points. Does No. 16 seeds Fairleigh Dickinson or Prairie View A&M have what it takes?
Did UMBC?
An all-ACC Final Four
Florida State, a No. 4 seed that deserved a No. 3 seed, looked awfully impressive in its win over Virginia in the ACC tournament. Afterward, FSU players said they felt neglected all season long while No. 1 seeds Duke, Virginia and UNC grabbed all the headlines. Then take a look at the West Regional, where Gonzaga and Michigan are the top two seeds, and it’s pretty wide open for the Seminoles to use their size and athleticism to earn a trip to Minneapolis. Then consider the fact that No. 1 seeds often have solid pathways to the Final Four, and this is a legitimate possibility.
North Carolina might run into trouble in the Midwest — where it could meet Kentucky in the Elite Eight — but the Tar Heels looked impressive even in losing to Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals.
Nevada, Wofford run to Elite Eight
Mid-majors that aren’t double-digit seeds (both are No. 7) often get looked past. But this year, Buffalo got a No. 6 seed and Nevada and Wofford are No. 7s. The latter two teams have the ability to bust brackets by knocking off their respective No. 2 seeds, Michigan in the West Regional and Kentucky in the Midwest.
The Wolf Pack’s versatile arsenal is led by All-American Caleb Martin (19.2 points), who helped carry this team to the Sweet 16 last year. Wofford is a much smaller mid-major from the Southern Conference but every bit as lethal. It starts with Fletcher Magee (20.5 points), who spearheads the secondbest 3-point shooting team in the country. Both teams have lost only four games and are highly underrated.
Three Cinderellas in the East
Never has one region had three double-digit teams pull off first-round upsets. But it’s possibly this year with Belmont, Yale and Liberty all lined up with favorable first-round matchups in the East.
Yale, playing out of the Ivy League, draws an LSU team likely trying to rekindle its identity with coach Will Wade suspended. The Tigers are talented but this isn’t the same team that won the SEC regular season and upset Kentucky and Tennessee.
Liberty has the No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed matchup against Mississippi State. What’s to like about the Flames is their defense. The Atlantic Sun winner has a top-six defense (allowing 60.8 points) and excellent shooting percentage (49%). Scottie James (13.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg) paces a balanced scoring attack for an offense that leads by committee.