Texas Tech, Culver could emerge over Gonzaga
USA TODAY breaks down the NCAA West Regional.
Best first-round matchup: Marquette-Murray State. Marquette and high-scoring junior guard Markus Howard (25.1 points per game) appeared to be headed for the Big East Conference regular-season title but lost its last four regular-season games (including at home against Georgetown and Creighton). The Golden Eagles routed NCAA atlarge selection St. John’s in the conference tournament, then lost to Seton Hall — and Howard seemed affected by an injured wrist. They now face dynamic sophomore guard Ja Morant and a Racers team that has won 11 in a row, including beating NCAA at-large team Belmont in the conference tournament final. Morant averages 24.6 points, 10 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 36.5 minutes played. Murray State averages 83 points, Marquette 78.
Potential upset: After Murray State over Marquette, look to the second round. If Syracuse beats Baylor, it’s exactly the kind of team that can take down Gonzaga — it plays a zone defense that’s tough to prepare for in a short amount of time, and it’s fine playing at a slower pace.
The sleeper: Buffalo got a taste last year, when it routed fourth-seeded Arizona in the first round before running into Kentucky in the second. If the Bulls get past St. John’s or Arizona State — both intriguing sleepers themselves — they would face a very tough task against Texas Tech, but they have the playing style to push the Red Raiders. Nevada has all of the components in place to give any team in this bracket a hard time, but if Jordan Caroline’s Achilles tendon — which kept him out of the Mountain West semifinals — continues to be a big problem, the Wolf Pack won’t be the same.
The winner: The easy choice is Gonzaga, especially now that Killian Tillie is back from a foot injury. But in addition to a potentially tough second-round matchup, Florida State lurks in the round of 16. The Seminoles eliminated the Bulldogs from the tournament last year, so Gonzaga would have plenty of motivation in a rematch. But Florida AP State is just like it was last season — tall, athletic and deep. So the pick is Texas Tech. Michigan is at least as good as it was last season, when it advanced to the championship game. And Michigan State — which has beaten the Wolverines three times — is not in this regional. But with Jordan Culver, the Red Raiders have the kind of singular player who can be the difference-maker. Their loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 quarterfinals notwithstanding, the Red Raiders also just seem to have a certain toughness about them. And after losing to eventual national champion Villanova in the round of eight last year, they know they can take the next step.